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  • The latest TMC Podcast (#17) is now available on YouTube and all major podcast networks. We covered EV Tax Credit 2.0, Model Y & 3 Gangbuster Sales, Low Model X Demand, and California FSD Drama.

Any reservation holders considering immediately buying an available new/used?

There are now over 20 new/used M3’s listed on cars.com, autotrader and eBay. Several of these are priced very near the original MSRP. Looks like any reservation holder who would not be entitled to the tax credit could immediately own one of these at the same cost as waiting for one from Tesla.

Are any reservation holders wanting one now and considering this? Or are most still going to be patient?
 
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I for one, have been looking.... Although the estimator has me at the JULY-SEP estimate and Troy's estimator has me (currently) with a est confirm on 7/19 and delivery of 8/26, I haven't pulled the trigger... Looking for the RWD/PUP/Metallic Grey/ 18in wheels and the full driving package... Most of the ones I see meet all that with the exception of the full driving package... If the estimator is correct, I should be in the "full tax credit" area currently...

But.... I am hating the waiting.... so, I am still on the fence on if I will "pull the trigger" and go for one early!
 

John Lamoureux

l Parzival l
Jul 2, 2016
192
122
NH
I am most likely in range of the US tax credit, even if I defer and wait for the AWD version. But I have also been looking at used MS's; as my configuration and subsequent delivery get closer, it'll be a tough decision as I'm sure the S pricing will continue to drop.
 

ℬête Noire

Active Member
Jan 30, 2018
3,105
2,700
TX
in reality THESE PEOPLE WOULD be entitled to the tax credit, and those who are dumping the car within 2 years could not take the tax credit
The law apparently is written such that as long as resale was not your intention when you made the purchase, even if you sell it quickly afterward you're eligible for the tax credit. Proving prior intent to "flip" the vehicle can be problematic. Probably would require something pretty flagrant such as purchasing and flipping multiple vehicles (that'd probably throw a flag on your tax return), advertising the resale prior to your purchase (only obvious by IRS investigation), or doing something stupid like not pleading the 5th to have your accountant/lawyers to do the talking when an IRS agent asks a question.
 
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MXWing

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Oct 13, 2016
7,719
23,899
USA
I would never give up the 7500 credit to a scalper.

New S or used S all the way.

A misconception is a used S doesn't "get" the 7500 credit. - It's baked into the cost. Used Tesla prices will rise as that subsidy phases out.
 

John Lamoureux

l Parzival l
Jul 2, 2016
192
122
NH
I would never give up the 7500 credit to a scalper.

New S or used S all the way.

A misconception is a used S doesn't "get" the 7500 credit. - It's baked into the cost. Used Tesla prices will rise as that subsidy phases out.

Okay, I'll bite. Please elaborate as to why you feel the tax credit is baked into the price of a used S. Personally, I believe that the pricing of Model S' (new AND used) will drop as the tax credit expires, as Telsa can no longer "bake" it into their adjusted cost model that they show prospective buyers.
 

MXWing

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Oct 13, 2016
7,719
23,899
USA
Okay, I'll bite. Please elaborate as to why you feel the tax credit is baked into the price of a used S. Personally, I believe that the pricing of Model S' (new AND used) will drop as the tax credit expires, as Telsa can no longer "bake" it into their adjusted cost model that they show prospective buyers.

A used S, competes with a new S. It's game theory but the flow would look something like:

An agent may use $20,000 "savings" as the decision point to go from used to new.

No Tax Credit - Equilibrium Price
Used 75D = 50,000
New 75D = 75,000
Delta = 25,000

Tax Credit Introduction - Disrupts Equilibrium Price
Used 75D = 50,000
New 75D = 67,500
Delta = 17,500

Equilibrium Price - Moving Used Car Requires Reaction To Subsidy Availability
Used 75D = 45,000
New 75D = 67,500
Delta = 22,500

- From tracking Tesla prices for about 2 years, relative price is declining. Price of cars have gone down and added features are more standard.

It matters far less what the 'sell price' of a car goes versus what the margin is on each unit of sale.

Tesla -MAY- drop the price but a more profitable strategy is to maintain same price price with value add features.

Any reduction in sales price is a total 100% loss to Tesla. Adding features reduces losses only to marginal cost of production.
 
3CB9F7B5-0A01-4405-9733-0AF2473D2C59.jpeg
I’m a day one line waiter, that is still on the waiting list.....Call me Crazy, but I bought a “used” red M3 from a Tesla owner, just so I too can become a “TESLA” owner. I’m hoping this will move me to the front of the list for the AWD, that I really want...

So, I will be selling this one if anyone is interested..
 
View attachment 285003 I’m a day one line waiter, that is still on the waiting list.....Call me Crazy, but I bought a “used” red M3 from a Tesla owner, just so I too can become a “TESLA” owner. I’m hoping this will move me to the front of the list for the AWD, that I really want...

So, I will be selling this one if anyone is interested..
Ok. That’s crazy. Hope your plan works out.
 

John Lamoureux

l Parzival l
Jul 2, 2016
192
122
NH
A used S, competes with a new S. It's game theory but the flow would look something like:

An agent may use $20,000 "savings" as the decision point to go from used to new.

No Tax Credit - Equilibrium Price
Used 75D = 50,000
New 75D = 75,000
Delta = 25,000

Tax Credit Introduction - Disrupts Equilibrium Price
Used 75D = 50,000
New 75D = 67,500
Delta = 17,500

Equilibrium Price - Moving Used Car Requires Reaction To Subsidy Availability
Used 75D = 45,000
New 75D = 67,500
Delta = 22,500

- From tracking Tesla prices for about 2 years, relative price is declining. Price of cars have gone down and added features are more standard.

It matters far less what the 'sell price' of a car goes versus what the margin is on each unit of sale.

Tesla -MAY- drop the price but a more profitable strategy is to maintain same price price with value add features.

Any reduction in sales price is a total 100% loss to Tesla. Adding features reduces losses only to marginal cost of production.

Thanks. But you lost me at "used 70D at $50K" and "new 70D at $75K". They don't exist. Except maybe if you were predicting that's what it would cost when the first M3SRAWD was available?
 

MXWing

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Oct 13, 2016
7,719
23,899
USA
Thanks. But you lost me at "used 70D at $50K" and "new 70D at $75K". They don't exist. Except maybe if you were predicting that's what it would cost when the first M3SRAWD was available?

Those are not literal values. There's many push/pull factors that makes the complete solution difficult to model An example is when HOV stickers were no longer issued in California. This caused used car prices to be artificially higher than new car prices.

70K/50K are just contrived values to represent price movement with introduction of a subsidy to new cars (7500 tax credits) It's more simple to assume the cars are identical in every way except for new or used. ceteris paribus (all other things being equal)
 

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