Anyone else tired of the "anti" selling of M3?

[AnxietyRanger]

We can yack all we want. When the car starts shipping, we should know pretty quickly how the market perceives it, not just the non- statistical sample on this forum. If majority of the reservation holders place orders as they have the opportunity, momentum will build and the car will be capacity constrained for years. If more than half cancel once they can actually hit order button, then the car is probably not competitive. The market will tell, pure and simple.

If that is the measure, we are all wrong and Model 3 interior will be a smashing success. Because IMO there is no question that Model 3 will succeed.

However, what interests me more are the subtler nuances of that success. How many will buy Model 3 despite the interior? How many more would have bought it with a little more "normal" interior? Vs. how many more have bought it because of the interior or benefits (e.g. cost savings) from that interior.

I think that will be a hard question to answer, because so much of Model 3's success will simply come from the floodgates of BEV demand opening with an affordable BEV from a desired brand. And most importantly, how many will gravitate elsewhere once there is competition?

 

[tomas]

Waiting for that competition. I suspect Tesla will have shipped half a million to a million 3s before we see a competitor doing anything in volume. Who knows though? As an eGolf owner, I got an encouraging survey from VW. How fast can they get to market with margin that allows them to produce volume?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Waiting for that competition. I suspect Tesla will have shipped half a million to a million 3s before we see a competitor doing anything in volume. Who knows though? As an eGolf owner, I got an encouraging survey from VW. How fast can they get to market with margin that allows them to produce volume?

You may well be right. We shall see.

To me many of the design decisions with the Model 3 just seem like completely unnecessary risks and limitations. Tesla had such a winning formula with Model S, both versatility-wise (massive liftback) and striking the balance between new and normal. Why they went with a weirdmobile-interior big glass reared sedan for Model 3, instead of just doing a smaller and cheaper Model S, is just beyond me.

What a wasted opportunity, IMO.

 

[Canuck]

Why they went with a weirdmobile-interior big glass reared sedan for Model 3, instead of just doing a smaller and cheaper Model S, is just beyond me.

It's likely too expensive to just do a smaller Model S and expect to make a profit at the $35k base price target.

I think people need to take a deep breath and just wait until we can test drive one before judging this book by its cover. The blackberry analogy is spot on. I swore I couldn't do without a keyboard on my phone years ago. Yes, Apple's computers have keyboards but Apple's tablets do not and tablets started to outsell computers in 2015. The keyboard is practically the same as when it was invented in the 1800's. Change is always hard on people, since we are creatures of habit. Something that surprised me the most about my Model S is how much I enjoy the minimalist design including no centre console. I thought I couldn't live without a centre console since the ones in my prior vehicles were loaded with stuff so I immediately got on Tesla's centre console waiting list when I got my new S. Six months later I got an email from Tesla saying I was up next to order and it went right to the trash, like a lot of the junk in my old centre console, since I really like the wide open space. There's plenty of room in the glovebox and cubby drawer for what I need in my vehicle to access while driving, and I don't need my vehicle to double as a storage locker.

 

[daniel]

Your comparison ignores the tax credit and absence of an ICE, complex transmission and exhaust system on an ICE. That is not chump change. Moreover, the $200/kwh battery number is a lot more than Tesla cost.

So for now, at least with the tax credit, I think Tesla is on nice ground and will compete favorably with outher $35k cars although I agree with you that the Model 3 will not be a traditional "luxury" car and Tesla is putting more money into safety and assisted driving than seats.

Works for me

Google says that the MSRP for a Prius is $23,475. My 2004 Prius is a very nice car (except that it burns gas!) The Tesla is not going to look like a great value unless you're willing to spend just over another $10K to go electric. (Which I am: I spent a lot more than that to go electric!)

The Model 3 will be the best car you can get for the money. But that includes the fact that it will be fully electric and will go 215 miles on a charge. (Farther if you pay more.) For me, electric is the most important feature, which is why I was willing to drive my Zap Xebra for four years and loved it. I think the market will gobble these things up, because I think a small but significant segment of car buyers are ready for electric. They saw how cool it was when their Prius went electric for 1/4 of a mile, or they got smoked by a Tesla at a stop light, or their neighbor put up solar panels and they realized they could be driving for free. Or maybe they just saw the video of the Space X rocket landing successfully on a barge, and they thought, if this guy can do that, I'll bet he can build a great car.

But if you need low-cost transportation, you don't buy any new car: You buy a 5-year-old used Civic or Corolla, or even a used Prius.

I really don't think the market for the Model 3 is people for whom "luxury" features are the deciding factor. I think the market for now is people who really, really, love the idea of electric transportation, either because they hate gasoline on principle, or they want the instant torque. So I don't think it matters what features Tesla "leaves out" of the Model 3. It will be a long time before they build a car that's not sold before it rolls off the assembly line.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I was originally thinking that anti selling the Model 3 would be a bad thing, however it just might move me up the ladder for my dual motor version.

What I didn't want is for the anti selling campaign to cause model 3 reservationists to look at other car manufacturers. It appears to be happening that way for some.

 

[Big Dog]

I was originally thinking that anti selling the Model 3 would be a bad thing, however it just might move me up the ladder...

Not me. I've always been a fan of pushing the current models, since I'm hoping it will move up my M3 Rez.

 

[SageBrush]

Google says that the MSRP for a Prius is $23,475. My 2004 Prius is a very nice car

I owned that model too, so I think we can agree on a few differences between a current Prius and a Model 3:

1. The Prius can be noisy
2. The Prius has no where near the assisted driving feature set
3. The Prius has inferior safety
4. The Prius is much slower (important to some people)
5. The Prius suspension is ... OK, the Tesla superior

So all that for the difference of 35,000 - 7,500 - 23,475, = $4,025
Doodads and cup-holders aside, I have always thought that "luxury" cars are first and foremost powerful, and somewhat related to their big engines, stuffed with sound deadening material to provide a quiet interior and then a beefy suspension to allow the car to be a car rather than a land yacht. The Tesla sales pitch of the EV drivetrain to the mainstream is not environmental, it is effortless, almost whisper silent, superior driving dynamics.

Offering this for $4,000 (not to mention the safety and AP) is an unheard of value.

 

[fasteddie7]

Does anyone else think this anti selling hints at something more? When the 3 was announced there was a lot of excitement in Elon, even when he realized he may have "bit off more than he could chew" with all of the preorders. He had a level of excitement in his words I don't hear anymore. I feel like this may be to curb anger if folks get it and a model s refresh hits right after delivery.

 

[slipnslider]

If that is the measure, we are all wrong and Model 3 interior will be a smashing success. Because IMO there is no question that Model 3 will succeed.

However, what interests me more are the subtler nuances of that success. How many will buy Model 3 despite the interior? How many more would have bought it with a little more "normal" interior? Vs. how many more have bought it because of the interior or benefits (e.g. cost savings) from that interior.

I think that will be a hard question to answer, because so much of Model 3's success will simply come from the floodgates of BEV demand opening with an affordable BEV from a desired brand. And most importantly, how many will gravitate elsewhere once there is competition?

Exactly. So why design an interior that risks losing ANY sales. A more conventional interior wouldn't LOSE any sales, this radical design probably will. If the goal is to sell as many as possible and save the world, why make design choices that will alienate more potential customers than they will win?

 

[daniel]

I owned that model too, so I think we can agree on a few differences between a current Prius and a Model 3:

1. The Prius can be noisy
2. The Prius has no where near the assisted driving feature set
3. The Prius has inferior safety
4. The Prius is much slower (important to some people)
5. The Prius suspension is ... OK, the Tesla superior

So all that for the difference of 35,000 - 7,500 - 23,475, = $4,025
Doodads and cup-holders aside, I have always thought that "luxury" cars are first and foremost powerful, and somewhat related to their big engines, stuffed with sound deadening material to provide a quiet interior and then a beefy suspension to allow the car to be a car rather than a land yacht. The Tesla sales pitch of the EV drivetrain to the mainstream is not environmental, it is effortless, almost whisper silent, superior driving dynamics.

Offering this for $4,000 (not to mention the safety and AP) is an unheard of value.

The federal tax credit only benefits those who have enough of a federal tax bill to make use of it, and will expire soon, so for the long-term comparison is irrelevant.

For a gas-burning stinker, the Prius is an excellent and extremely reliable, well-built car. The Model 3 does not exist yet, so it remains to be seen what features it will have or how reliable it will be. Will the assisted driving set be standard in the base model, or will it cost extra? The Prius has pretty darn good safety ratings. The Model 3 has not been tested yet, though Tesla is promising 5 stars in every category. We don't yet know what the Model 3 suspension will feel like. The Model 3 is bigger than the Prius, but for me, that's a disadvantage because I strongly dislike driving a big car. I drove a dump truck several years running on the sugar beet harvest, and I didn't like it at all.

The Prius is less expensive to buy, and once the tax credits run out (and for people who don't get them) the difference will be BIG. And over the life of the car, the Prius is probably less expensive. I don't care, because I don't buy the cheapest car. I buy the car I like the best. The Prius was not the cheapest car I could have gotten at the time, and the Model 3 will not be the cheapest car I could get. I'm simply making the point that people who need to conserve money have more economical choices. Per mile driven during my ownership, the Zap Xebra was the most expensive car I ever owned. And I loved it. Before getting my Tesla, the Xebra was my favorite car I'd ever driven. I still have very fond memories of it.

I'm sure we're all eagerly awaiting the independent reviews when the first Model 3's get into people's hands.

 

[daniel]

Exactly. So why design an interior that risks losing ANY sales. A more conventional interior wouldn't LOSE any sales, this radical design probably will. If the goal is to sell as many as possible and save the world, why make design choices that will alienate more potential customers than they will win?

Probably because they believe the interior design will sell MORE cars, once people see and experience it. I don't like what I'm reading on TMC about the interior design, but I'm withholding judgement until I can drive one. But what I'm quite certain of, is that Tesla feels its design is an improvement. Whatever that design turns out to be. Which we won't really know until the final reveal.

 

[hckyplyr]

This may be wishful thinking, but I think this is going to happen. After july 1st (or at the reveal) Musk will announce the S is getting a refresh The 3 will then get alot of the addons that the s and 3 already have. Elon is just completely downplaying the 3 because S sales are lagging.

 

[eloder]

And we don't really know the lifespan of batteries. I've heard that early Leafs have lost significant range, but I'd love to be corrected on that. Tesla charges me $600 per year for the annual maintenance on my Roadster, and that far exceeds what I'd spend on gas if I drove the Prius instead. (I still hate driving the Prius because I don't like burning gas.)

Leafs don't have a proper battery temperature management system. It's like saying you have to replace video cards in a computer every 3 months because this one manufacturer decided to skimp out on a proper fan. You're thinking that the battery technology used in cell phones is the same tech used in EVs--this is not at all the case.

We actually do know how batteries last long-term:
1) Volt batteries are in the 7+ year old mark, and their degradation is remarkably low.
2) Tesla batteries are in the 200k+ mile mark, and their degradation is remarkably low. (Tesloop battery degraded 8% in 200k miles in a desert climate with 2x daily supercharging--ultimate stressful conditions)
3) 7+ year old Leaf batteries do remarkably well, if the Leaf is driven in a cool country (which again, is a design flaw and not a flaw with battery technology in general). See Leaf taxis with 130k+ miles in the UK that undergo constant fast charging.

By the time you have to replace an out of warranty battery--which, again, is eight years in the future with a Tesla--battery costs will be half of what they are at the time of purchase.

The average US gas car doesn't last 8 years--it starts becoming more expensive to own/repair/maintain than selling the car and buying brand new.

The average EV still has almost no maintenance to speak of after 8 years. Do some research--econo-EVs like Leafs and Bolts have next to zero maintenance costs. In eight years, a Model 3 battery could very easily cost <3-4k even assuming it suddenly dies at the eight year and one day mark.

Here's the bottom line: electric drivetrains, to most informed individuals out there, is the single most premium feature out there. The electric drivetrain makes the slowest Model 3 out-accelerate luxury gas cars twice their cost, and destroy any similarly-priced gas car on the market. The electric drivetrain saves most drivers dozens of hours a year from wasting their lives at gas stations. It is quieter than the quietest luxury cars; it is smoother than million dollar gas cars.

This is the reason why the Model S destroys all of its luxury competition in the US, despite having the interior luxury of a $35k gas car. This is the reason why the Model 3 will be the best car you can buy for $35k, despite it having the interior luxury of a well-equipped Civic. This is the reason why crappy, cars-on-a-leash like the Leaf and Spark out-perform all comparable gas cars on owner satisfaction despite having a 60 mile range in the wintertime.

This same argument happened with the smartphone revolution. Unlike the smartphone revolution, EVs already cost less than similarly-priced gas cars over the course of a loan, and will soon cost less up-front than similarly-equipped gas cars. People will pay for better and simple (as evidenced by the number of people dropping $800 every two years on smartphones), and EVs are no different.

 

[Canuck]

We could also look at the anti-selling as Tesla being concerned that when the Model 3 comes out, and especially the P version, it will be such a great car it can't be prevented from cutting into Model S sales, and perhaps to a significant extent, so Tesla is doing damage control now before it gets much worse.

I've never needed all the so-called creature comforts. Less busyness keeps this creature comfortable. Give me a smaller, sleek, minimalist P version with the latest AP/FSD by the time it comes out and I'll be very happy. Just make sure there's cup holders front and back and lots of USB ports. I'd also like an Aux in jack and inverter but since they're not in the S/X that's only wishful thinking.

 

[jelloslug]

You really think Model 3 will start at 35k and not at 45k upon launch? Well, I guess we shall see.

Do you have any proof of something otherwise?

 

[timk225]

With every passing day, the anti-selling becomes less effective, as more people decide they can wait for a 3.

And anti-selling will also be less important after June 30, when the second financial quarter of the year completes.

 

[daniel]

Leafs don't have a proper battery temperature management system. It's like saying you have to replace video cards in a computer every 3 months because this one manufacturer decided to skimp out on a proper fan. You're thinking that the battery technology used in cell phones is the same tech used in EVs--this is not at all the case.

We actually do know how batteries last long-term:
1) Volt batteries are in the 7+ year old mark, and their degradation is remarkably low.
2) Tesla batteries are in the 200k+ mile mark, and their degradation is remarkably low. (Tesloop battery degraded 8% in 200k miles in a desert climate with 2x daily supercharging--ultimate stressful conditions)
3) 7+ year old Leaf batteries do remarkably well, if the Leaf is driven in a cool country (which again, is a design flaw and not a flaw with battery technology in general). See Leaf taxis with 130k+ miles in the UK that undergo constant fast charging.

By the time you have to replace an out of warranty battery--which, again, is eight years in the future with a Tesla--battery costs will be half of what they are at the time of purchase.

The average US gas car doesn't last 8 years--it starts becoming more expensive to own/repair/maintain than selling the car and buying brand new.

The average EV still has almost no maintenance to speak of after 8 years. Do some research--econo-EVs like Leafs and Bolts have next to zero maintenance costs. In eight years, a Model 3 battery could very easily cost <3-4k even assuming it suddenly dies at the eight year and one day mark.

Here's the bottom line: electric drivetrains, to most informed individuals out there, is the single most premium feature out there. The electric drivetrain makes the slowest Model 3 out-accelerate luxury gas cars twice their cost, and destroy any similarly-priced gas car on the market. The electric drivetrain saves most drivers dozens of hours a year from wasting their lives at gas stations. It is quieter than the quietest luxury cars; it is smoother than million dollar gas cars.

This is the reason why the Model S destroys all of its luxury competition in the US, despite having the interior luxury of a $35k gas car. This is the reason why the Model 3 will be the best car you can buy for $35k, despite it having the interior luxury of a well-equipped Civic. This is the reason why crappy, cars-on-a-leash like the Leaf and Spark out-perform all comparable gas cars on owner satisfaction despite having a 60 mile range in the wintertime.

This same argument happened with the smartphone revolution. Unlike the smartphone revolution, EVs already cost less than similarly-priced gas cars over the course of a loan, and will soon cost less up-front than similarly-equipped gas cars. People will pay for better and simple (as evidenced by the number of people dropping $800 every two years on smartphones), and EVs are no different.

Thanks for the information on batteries. That is encouraging. My only comment is when you said:

The average US gas car doesn't last 8 years--it starts becoming more expensive to own/repair/maintain than selling the car and buying brand new.

My Prius is 13 years old and costs me $70/year including labor and tax for its annual oil change.

I'm agreeing with you and everyone above who says that the Model 3 will be the best car you can buy for $35K because the electric drivetrain is such a great feature. But without the soon-to-expire federal tax credit, and for people who don't get that credit, the Prius is eleven and a half thousand dollars cheaper, is an excellent car, extremely reliable, and very low-maintenance.

Average price of gas un the U.S. is around $2/gallon (probably artificially low due to Saudi Arabia's dumping). Electricity costs vary widely. At $2/gallon a Prius costs about 4 cents per mile to drive. At $4/gallon it costs 8 cents per mile to drive. Figuring 4 miles/kWh, a Tesla costs 2 cents per mile if you pay 8 cents per kWh. So at $3/gallon and 8 cents/kWh you "save" about 4 cents per mile driving the Tesla instead of the Prius. You need to drive 287,000 miles for the Tesla to break even with the Prius. But that's without considering the cost of capital for the initial investment.

You have to value the electric drivetrain for the two cars to be comparable. For me there's no comparison because I value the electric drivetrain so highly that the lack of superchargers on the secondary roads I take on my once-a-year road trip is the only reason I still have the Prius at all. But many people do not share my (our) opinion, and for them the Model 3 is very simply a much more expensive car. (And that's fine because it will be several years at least before Tesla can meet even the current demand.)

 

[SageBrush]

Average price of gas un the U.S. is around $2/gallon (probably artificially low due to Saudi Arabia's dumping). Electricity costs vary widely. At $2/gallon a Prius costs about 4 cents per mile to drive. At $4/gallon it costs 8 cents per mile to drive. Figuring 4 miles/kWh, a Tesla costs 2 cents per mile if you pay 8 cents per kWh.

YMMV;
I live in a nice sunny climate and pay about 0.5 cents a mile for EV driving.

PV+EV makes a lot of sense. For comparison, my Prius Prime petrol miles cost about 6 cents a mile. The only downside for me is that my EV miles are so cheap I cannot bother keeping track of the cost anymore. PV is making me lazy.

Colorado turns PV+EV into a no-brainer:

$35k Model 3
(7.5k) fuel savings
(5k) Colorado tax credit
(7.5k) Federal tax credit
------
15k out of pocket for Model 3 before TTL for me which is crazy, but any homeowner with decent PV resources can swing a Model 3 for around $28k even without tax credits.

 

[slipnslider]

Probably because they believe the interior design will sell MORE cars, once people see and experience it. I don't like what I'm reading on TMC about the interior design, but I'm withholding judgement until I can drive one. But what I'm quite certain of, is that Tesla feels its design is an improvement. Whatever that design turns out to be. Which we won't really know until the final reveal.

This is the final interior. Production starts in 2 months. They're finishing the assembly line now. Unfortunately, this is it. And I don't need to sit in it to know that controlling everything with an ipad is a stupid idea.