...Is this speculation on your part?...
Yes.
- I have learned (the hard way) never to say "never" (regarding Tesla-related issues).
- The Teslascope (12,146 fleet size) and Teslafi (1,157 contributing vehicles) tracking data are from samples (and not random samples, at that) from within the entire population of Tesla cars. As you probably know, but others may not, Teslascope and Teslafi base their findings on their own databases of paid subscribers, I believe, and not on a master list of all Tesla vehicles.
Now I assume that these (biased) samples are probably still good indications of what is actually happening, but like any samples they are probably not 100% reliable all of the time. There may be a Model X somewhere that has received one of those downloads. (Probably not, but I was just being conservatively cautious in my language.) For example, I think I remember seeing that one Canadian car (yes, a Model S Plaid) had received the latest FSD beta download, when I thought that only USA (including Puerto Rico) cars were testing FSD Beta? (Maybe someone on the U.S.-Canada border with dual citizenship? Or a VIP, perhaps? One of the writer-actors on The Second City or SNL?)
- Also, god knows websites are not always correct. If you refine the Teslascope tracking view for just 2021.44.25.6, the displayed list includes a relatively small number of (U.S. and one Canadian) Model S cars that have supposedly received that version. But if you further refine the view by selecting both Model S and 2021.44.25.6 it shows "No vehicles were found matching the given parameters." What is to be believed? (The process seems to work fine if you select Model 3 or Model Y, instead) The point is, I try to use caution interpreting information on various websites.
- Furthermore, when I wrote that I had seen no Model X listed for either version (2021.44.25.6 or 2021.44.25.2). But that's not to say that Model X couldn't have begun receiving downloads shortly thereafter. We don't really know what is going on.
All that said, I would prefer to believe you, as I have been trying not to take the lack of of a download to my car personally.
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