I don't really expect to see many Tesla pack replacements, because of the architecture.
Tesla packs are kinda the RAID of battery packs - large numbers of little cells in parallel, each individually fused. When one shorts, it'll pop the fuse, and the pack goes on working, short ~1.4% of its capacity (but with a 1% chance that the next failure has any impact at all.)
The pack replacements I've seen here in TMC have all been for system level components like the contactors that connect the pack to the rest of the car safely - things that would presumably be replaced on your pack out of warranty (or at least they'd give you a core return credit that's most of the value of the refurbished replacement pack they gave you.)
The only packs I expect to see replaced outright are the flooded ones or the ones that catch fire - and in both cases they normally total the car instead.
(By contrast, we're starting to see occasional pack replacements on Volts on that forum - failure of a single cell out of one of their triplets is a stranding event for them, and the response so far has been to replace one of the four modules in their pack once the car is trucked in.)