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Anyone on the fence about ordering new X vs just waiting for refresh?

glusc2002

Member
Jul 6, 2016
195
30
Orange County
Debating on waiting on the refresh model x or just pulling the trigger and placing the order in the next few weeks. Im turning in my MS and have two other cars, one being the M3. Thoughts?
 

bob_p

Active Member
Apr 5, 2012
3,672
2,794
Musk stated there is no major refresh coming for the S or X (at least not in the near term).

We should expect changes to the battery, charging and motor along with minor changes to the exterior/interior (especially if those changes help streamline manufacturing).

Since Tesla is continuously adding changes to their vehicles and doesn't have "model years", if customers wait for the next changes, they could end up waiting forever, since there will always be something new coming out in the next 6 to 12 months...

We went through "feature anticipation" before ordering our S 100D and X 100D. For both, there were specific features we waited for before placing our order. For the S 100D - we waited for them to bring the 100 packs to the non-performance models [which we knew were coming after they started making S P100D's. And for the X 100D - we waited until they fixed the middle row seats so they would fold flat and we'd have more usable storage than our S.

In the next 12 months, we could see an additional range increase - plus addition of full V3 supercharging. Musk mentioned a battery pack change that could come next year, increasing the pack lifetime from 250-300K miles to 1M miles.

But if you're waiting to see a major change to the interior, Musk threw cold water on that - and I suspect we won't see anything until around the time they are ready to get FSD approval (when they'll be able to provide more entertainment options while the vehicle is in motion).
 

DoctorVenkman

Member
Jul 29, 2018
428
520
Los Angeles
I remember thinking in September of 2018 if I should wait for a refresh since there were some rumors floating around back then. I'd have waited 6 months for the Raven with slightly more range and better suspension. I'd still be waiting for an interior refresh. Not sure if it's worth it if you really want a car now.
 

glusc2002

Member
Jul 6, 2016
195
30
Orange County
I'm 95% going to just pull the trigger in the next few weeks since my MS is due. I guess these latest improvements are pretty good with the longer range and suspension improvement. I actually took a test drive in the new X and the rep started swerving hard and the X didn't roll. It just moved side to side on an even plain. Pretty impressive! Thanks for the input. I was just worried that Musk would have pulled a shocker jan 2020 and say they are releasing the refresh interior to get quarter 1 numbers up.
 

glusc2002

Member
Jul 6, 2016
195
30
Orange County
I remember thinking in September of 2018 if I should wait for a refresh since there were some rumors floating around back then. I'd have waited 6 months for the Raven with slightly more range and better suspension. I'd still be waiting for an interior refresh. Not sure if it's worth it if you really want a car now.

Btw where did you find the term to reference RAVEN?
 

Bombillo

Member
Jul 15, 2019
7
0
Northern California
What model did you order? How long did they say it would be? I see you are in Penn so transcontinental shipping is a factor, how long do they estimate? With your electric rates out there this is a no brainer, travel +- 300 mi for $12.00!
 
Jul 2, 2019
7
7
Philadelphia, pa
What model did you order? How long did they say it would be? I see you are in Penn so transcontinental shipping is a factor, how long do they estimate? With your electric rates out there this is a no brainer, travel +- 300 mi for $12.00!

I ordered a performance five seater! My significant other insisted on chipping in the price difference to get the performance... I couldn’t care less They haven’t given me any more specifics than three weeks, but I’ll let you know!
 
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Saghost

Well-Known Member
Oct 9, 2013
8,217
7,007
Delaware
Btw where did you find the term to reference RAVEN?

Project Raven was a Tesla internal codename for the revision of the powertrain. One of the forum hacker gurus found it in the firmware about a month before Tesla made the announcement. Might have been verygreen?

It's never shown up in Tesla official communications, but it became forum shorthand for the powertrain refresh.

It's common enough that these days Elon uses it on twitter, so I guess it's been accepted...

Elon Musk on Twitter
 
Feb 19, 2013
56
7
Bay Area, CA
I pulled the trigger too. I have a 2012 Model S P85, and a Model 3 RWD LR. Decided that it was time to finally switch out the S after nearly 7 years, and I figured the raven changes were good enough for now. Couldn't wait any longer for something more significant. I ordered the X performance on July 13th before the pricing change, and received the car today. The pricing change ended up working out for me as the car would have been $3k more expensive if I had waited.
 

alloverx

Member
Mar 20, 2016
877
606
Seattle
Raven changes look great and seem to solve a few issues.
Hopefully yellow screen issue is fixed but only time will tell.
Elons definition of refresh is suspect but if you like the current interior and range & performance are acceptable it would seem logical to place an order. I'd guess an interior refresh early next year but can you wait that long?
Have seen a few eTrons around but obviously they have their PROs & CONs also.
 
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wildag

Member
Jul 3, 2017
112
226
Fairfax, VA
These forum responses are why Elon and Tesla claims not to have refreshes. If it was public knowledge that a major change (let’s call it a refresh) is in the works, sales of exiting cars would drop dramatically, forcing lower prices. So the company line has to be “there are no refreshes”. But if they never change anything sales will drop naturally over time.

Of course there is a refresh coming. We don’t know when. And many of the people who bought in the months before the refresh will be upset.

This is why other auto makers have model years. Customers can know what they’re buying. They receive a steep discount for prior year model or pay top dollar for new year models. Manufacturers achieve predictable revenue curves, and engineering timelines.

Predictable model years are a win-win. Tesla’s misleading use of English words and erratic product drops are a win-lose. And Tesla’s not the one losing.
 
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Saghost

Well-Known Member
Oct 9, 2013
8,217
7,007
Delaware
These forum responses are why Elon and Tesla claims not to have refreshes. If it was public knowledge that a major change (let’s call it a refresh) is in the works, sales of exiting cars would drop dramatically, forcing lower prices. So the company line has to be “there are no refreshes”. But if they never change anything sales will drop naturally over time.

Of course there is a refresh coming. We don’t know when. And many of the people who bought in the months before the refresh will be upset.

This is why other auto makers have model years. Customers can know what they’re buying. They receive a steep discount for prior year model or pay top dollar for new year models. Manufacturers achieve predictable revenue curves, and engineering timelines.

Predictable model years are a win-win. Tesla’s misleading use of English words and erratic product drops are a win-lose. And Tesla’s not the one losing.

Are the folks who are laid off for six weeks while the factory is idled between model years winning?

Are the companies that have to choose between slowing production for a couple months or finding and paying for a place to stockpile all the components during the break winning?

Are the consumers who get a worse car than they could have had because the new systems are ready in december and the manufacturer has to wait until august for the start of the next model year to introduce it winning?

Are the people who are trying to change the world by introducing a new and better car but can only run their factory at a fraction of capacity because they have to match the surge and fade of demand through the model year winning?

There are benefits and drawbacks to both approaches. The model year approach is somewhat more predictable for the consumer, but it only works because there's a much bigger gap between MSRP and average selling price through the year - and you can bet that difference won't come from Tesla's side of the money; they'd have to raise prices until the ASP reached the current MSRP.

Back in the early days Tesla said they'd have to raise the MSRP by like $20k (I think on Roadster? maybe on early S) to survive with a traditional dealership and model year structure.
 
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KSilver2000

Active Member
Dec 23, 2017
1,368
1,954
CA
I was just worried that Musk would have pulled a shocker jan 2020 and say they are releasing the refresh interior to get quarter 1 numbers up.

You just never know one way or other with Tesla, regardless of who says what. Elon has said things in the past that didn’t exactly result in what he said.

I’m not saying you should or should not buy now, or believe in everything Musk says to heart, just saying nothing is ever concretely known with Tesla. No one here can say for sure either.

So, just buy when you need or really want to.
 

DanCar

Active Member
Oct 2, 2013
1,860
1,557
SF Bay Area
I'm 95% going to just pull the trigger in the next few weeks since my MS is due. ...
I'm hoping Elon gives a clue or info about 400 mile range car at the Q2 investor update this Wednesday. Previously he said "it won't be long before we have a 400 mile range car." An 8% upgrade in range might not be a big deal, but will likely include the chemistry to allow 250 kW charging rate.
 

Daisame

Member
Apr 29, 2019
434
195
Sicklerville NJ
I'm 95% going to just pull the trigger in the next few weeks since my MS is due. I guess these latest improvements are pretty good with the longer range and suspension improvement. I actually took a test drive in the new X and the rep started swerving hard and the X didn't roll. It just moved side to side on an even plain. Pretty impressive! Thanks for the input. I was just worried that Musk would have pulled a shocker jan 2020 and say they are releasing the refresh interior to get quarter 1 numbers up.

The VAST majority of their orders and deliveries are Model 3. I don't think he will pull anything on S or X that is not something that makes it cheaper or easier to manufacture them. Model Y is the priority, because that will also be a huge volume product for them.
 
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jeffro01

Active Member
Jan 30, 2013
2,688
1,944
Teller County CO
While no one really knows what's coming down the pipe, I wouldn't believe Elon if he told me the sky was blue anymore... He lies, it's well documented. I feel like him saying there "isn't" a refresh coming almost guarantees there really is one coming and he's trying to offset lost sales in the short term by lying about the long term. Considering his constant lies have had no consequences of any real severity, whats the incentive to stop doing it? So no, I have no proof a refresh is coming, I don't know anyone inside Tesla but I do know when Elon says go left, you should go right...

Jeff
 
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