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Anyone up for a cost/benefit analysis?

For the past 15 years, I have been commuting with a Prius. My commute to work is 120 miles per day, and we travel to another home on weekends, for a total of 1k miles per week. Our 2007 Prius has over 500k miles, and our 2017 Prius Prime has 240k miles.

I had a MYP on order, but played the "wait for the 4680 game," and my order was dropped. I ended up getting a 2022 MYP as a fleet vehicle in April.

I absolutely love the car. I'm obsessed with it and it brings joy to my life.

Before all the Priuses, my daily was a beautiful Jaguar, which I loved dearly. It made it to 60k miles. I spent too much time at the dealer and was left stranded often. It was a mess. I don't want to deal with an unreliable car again. In the past three months, I have put 12k miles on the MYP, with no issues. I will be giving it back at 14k, but could swap it every 12k miles.

So, here are the goals:
(1) drive a Tesla
(2) not have to deal with the service center
(3) drive something reliable
(4) do this as cost effectively as possible, but cost isn't a huge factor, otherwise I would just drive the Prius

Here are the options for 50k per year useage:

A. Buy a MYP and drive it until it needs a new battery. If I financed it, this would be over 80k. Then, a new battery would be somewhere around 15k. This would be $1349 per month plus $267/month per tires (assuming 25k miles at $1600 according to Costco), and $250 charging if I mostly charge at home (?), plus $70 month tax if divided over 60 months. Total= $1936/month
-this assumes no other repairs
-the car would have 250k miles in five years
-I would potentially need a 15k battery
-battery degradation
-this is assuming no other maintenance or issues
+I would own something in the end

B. Buy a M3 RWD with the LFP battery with the hope that the battery would last longer and drive it until it needs a new battery. This would cost $913 per month plus $49 month in tax. Tires would cost around $260/month. I'll go with $250/month charging.
Total=$1472
-inferior audio
-less range
-I like the MY better (more space and you can camp)
-slower (it felt okay though on the test drive)
+less expensive
+LFP battery for longer battery life
+it still has the Tesla benefits/fun factor

C. What I'm doing currently
Total= $1633 for 4k miles/month or $1413 for 3k miles per month for a MYP
Total= $100 less for a M3P or MYLR, $200 less for a M3LR, ($3k for a Plaid, $2.3k for a MS)
+I can change cars every two months and swap for a MYP, M3P, MS plaid or MX plaid or MS/M3LR
+no battery degradation to worry about
+free Supercharging
+low mileage car, always
+not having to deal with Tesla, it breaks, I get another one
+no maintenance or tires
+I don't need to keep the car in the winter when the efficiency will be an issue (November to March or April in NY, so figure drive it for half a year)
+I could buy a Cybertruck if/when it comes out
+always the latest model/tech
-cost (?)
-I don't own anything in the end
-prices will likely go up after 2022

What do you think? I have never leased a car or similar. The $1600/month isn't life changing (we can afford it). I'm trying to figure out the most logical way of going about this.
 

ucmndd

Well-Known Member
Mar 10, 2016
10,149
19,925
California
As a high mileage driver of a Model S for the past 5.5 years, I question some of your numbers. Personally I find the idea of short term leases with that level of mileage accumulation to be batshit crazy, but that’s not really what you’re asking for input on, so I’ll just leave it at that.

Pre-Covid I was driving similar to you, a bit less, about 40k miles/year. I’m at 150k miles currently. 5th set of tires - I’ve averaged 30k miles a set. Average replacement cost for my 19” wheels has been about $950, not $1600 (FWIW after trying lots of stuff the Michelin MXM4 is my go-to for longevity vs cost). Maybe higher for the 21s on the MYP but TBH if I was driving that much I’d 100% swap out the 21s for 19s anyway.

My battery degradation stands at about 12%. The car has been very reliable, my ongoing non-tire maintenance and repair costs are south of $2,000 total. I’m in the golden years now… note is paid and operating costs are very low. As of now I see no reason to not drive the wheels off it.

Don’t get the 3 if your heart is with the Y.

Of the three options I’d (obviously) go with option A, and I think you’ll find the economics to be more favorable than you estimate.
 
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I could pay cash for the MYP, but I figured out the loan to have a monthly comparison. The cost for tires is based on Costco. A few years back, I was going to get a MS to commute with, but I backed out after reading all of the issues in the forum here. It's good to hear that yours is doing well.

Why do you think what I'm doing now is crazy based on the numbers? Thank you for your input.
 

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