AP 1.0 vs AP 2.0 final capabilities

[israndy]

So in general it sounds like AP 2.0 will allow Full Self Driving capabilities, I know people were thinking the self driving capabilities would get better in the 1.0 hardware but then Tesla announced the 2.0 HW. What do people think will happen to the 1.0 cars. Will they continue to get better self driving, just never making it to full capabilities to go out driving by itself. Or will they stagnate now that the 2.0 software is getting better and better..

So will a 1.0 car continue to be able to drive on the highway with my hand on the wheel, lane keeping, but unable to follow directions on the map and get off at interchanges and exits?

-Randy

 

[Tam]

....I know people were thinking the self driving capabilities would get better in the 1.0 hardware...

First Tesla Autopilot (AP1, HW1) were never meant to advance to self-driving. Some video/audio clips from Elon Musk from the early days of AP1 introduction stated that you would need a different "sensor suite" for that purpose.

AP1 was supplied by MobilEye with a business model of incremental hardware trade-ins for more advanced feature.

Among a number of reasons, Tesla decided to abandon that incremental hardware upgrade business model and it went with Nvidia for Enhanced Autopilot (AP2, HW2) instead.

With AP2 hardware you can now just need to upgrade the firmware incrementally and do not have to trade in your cars for incremental advancing functions.

Currently, AP2 is learning with AI-artificial intelligence to catch up with the function of AP1.

It is promised to surpass AP1 this year.

AP1 will still be supported by Tesla and will get better with additional firmware updates.

AP1 has been able to turn onto freeway interchanges with driver's turn signal as of firmware 8.0. (Prior to this feature, if you made a turn to a freeway interchange, Autopilot would be deactivated.)

Both AP1 and AP2 are promised for Limited Hands-Free On-Ramp to Off-Ramp eventually.

AP1 is promised to be less hands-free such as: You have to turn signal for the system to change lane.

AP2 is promised to be more hands-free such as: The system would change lane automatically without your input at all.

I don't think AP1 development will be abandoned until its goal is reached with less driver interventions and less accidents.

 

[animorph]

AP1 has no side view cameras so it can't handle surrounding traffic without the driver's help. Even changing lanes by itself would be tough. And I don't know how maxed out the processor might be right now. Certainly no one said the Mobileye chip was capable of self driving. It was only intended to handle something like AP1.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

There is at least one yet to be fulfilled promise for firmware 8.1 (not yet released, the one we got is not 8.1 in that sense of the word) regarding freeway ramps or somesuch. It was announced around the time that 8.0 was announced. Anyone recall?

Then there are of course various AP1 related promises that nobody expects to be fulfilled, such as summon to the curb or ability of read traffic lights. I doubt we'll see any of these, but AP2 is expected to get them.

But at least, I guess, one more significant AP1 update is expected and then certainly some fleet-learning/maintenance updates.

AP2 was of course expected to surpass AP1 already in December 2016 according to both Elon Musk and Tesla's Design Studio, but that is yet to happen, so Tesla tends to make future statements that seem misleading.

 

[GregTexas]

AP1 will still be supported by Tesla and will get better with additional firmware updates.

How do you know this? My assumption is they are focussing only on AP2. That would be more financially rewarding path for them to take. Bigger gap between AP1 and AP2 = more sales.

 

[GlmnAlyAirCar]

AP1 has been able to turn onto freeway interchanges with driver's turn signal as of firmware 8.0. (Prior to this feature, if you made a turn to a freeway interchange, Autopilot would be deactivated.)

No, it will only navigate onto an offramp if it is already positioned in an exit lane. It has been doing this since at least 7.1. The actual "take the offramp triggered by the turn signal" was promised in 8.0 and not delivered. "Take the offramp triggered by the nav system" was promised in 8.1 and not delivered.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

How do you know this? My assumption is they are focussing only on AP2. That would be more financially rewarding path for them to take. Bigger gap between AP1 and AP2 = more sales.

I think AP1 will still get the promised 8.1 enhancements (the firmware update previously known as 8.1, not the different one we got). Beyond that they probably have very little incentives in updating it, other than maintenance sort of updates and of course cloud/white-listing type of fleet learning enhancements running.

We can probably look at Classic pre-AP1 Tesla firmware updates as an example. Basically only changes they ever got after AP1 HW release were the ones that were also applicable to later Teslas. The new UI in 7/8 was seriously conflicted on the old cars because of this and many features that probably could have gotten better were left stagnant.

The reason is IMO very simple: there is very little incentive for Tesla in creating updates unique to models that are not currently on the sales floor. The old fleets will not grow anymore, they will not help with the next quarterly result, so IMO as long as you've got a new Tesla with the same hardware that is being sold, you get the best updates.

Once your hardware is not sold anymore, you get whatever compatible scraps there might be and possibly, not always but possibly, some new features if they were promised for your hardware level but not yet shipped (e.g. AP1 ramp to ramp). One day, once the central display computer gets updated, it is possible the upgrades to pre-AP and AP1 cars will become very few.

That said, AP2 might fare a little better, because it will probably remain a subset of a potential future AP3 that might have even more sensors and computing power. Just speculation of course, but it might make sense...

All this speculation and/or past observation only, of course. Future could change.

 

[israndy]

Interestingly I was asking this as I was trying to compare getting a used car vs getting a new mass produced car.

Seems that until the actual Full Self-Driving capability is introduced in maybe 2019 there is going to be a long time that the M3 will only do the same things as an old MS. Though I had it pointed out to me this weekend that all the MS's out there don't have the same capabilities, so I am going to say, the MS from 2014? Is that when the car got Auto Pilot hardware?

That limits how cheaply one can get an MS w/ AP. This guy drove his new-to-him car across country on the supercharger network and presented his trip at the GGEVA meeting saying he got his 2012 car for ~$50K. With free supercharging and not so big a hit on any resale value buying used seems quite attractive. Would want to get one with Auto Pilot of course.

I would also suspect that cars with original AP hardware would get SW updates, as one selling point is that Teslas continue to get new features as the software evolves. So I have to believe that things they learn from adding features to 2.0 will find their way into 1.0 if applicable. Not expecting FSD, but that is why I started this thread to see what others thought might happen.

-Randy

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I would also suspect that cars with original AP hardware would get SW updates, as one selling point is that Teslas continue to get new features as the software evolves. So I have to believe that things they learn from adding features to 2.0 will find their way into 1.0 if applicable. Not expecting FSD, but that is why I started this thread to see what others thought might happen.

There is no precedent of that, though.

Old Teslas do get updates, but mostly only for features that new cars also have. Old hardware does not usually get new features beyond what is compatible with the new cars...

That said, I do believe AP1 will still get at least one ramp to ramp related feature update. And maybe if some other feature upgrade is directly portable from AP2 or even uses similar software/hardware, that might still come.

Beyond that, the precedent suggests that the chances of new features are rather bleak for old hardware, if it is not directly compatible with the new, currently sold hardware...

 

[Beryl]

I don't expect major feature improvements to AP1. I do expect modest safety enhancements, however, that optimize the current HW suite. I'm quite certain those updates are being made to pre-AP vehicles as well.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I don't expect major feature improvements to AP1. I do expect modest safety enhancements, however, that optimize the current HW suite. I'm quite certain those updates are being made to pre-AP vehicles as well.

With AP1 we shall see, of course. I'm not sure about pre-AP cars, though.

I always thought Tesla could have done much more with the parking sensor suite in many pre-AP cars, for example, but it got stagnated on the level it was left at. IMO they could have innovated some subset of low-speed safety smarts there if they wanted to, but they never did. Same with the UI which was an odd mix of 6.2 and watered down 7/8 on pre-AP cars, such a wasted opportunity.

It was obvious to me they were putting minimal effort into backwards compatibility - make it barely work, if something is OK on older machines too great, if not, just cut it out. I went through many pre-AP software updates in 2014-2017 and they were just cut down lists of what AP1 cars got. Now AP1 has been going through similar treatment evern since AP2 came out, though we are of course expecting at least one feature update to AP1 which may be in the firmware update formerly know as "8.1".

Everything about Tesla points to them as looking at new hardware as the solution to old problems. It is the same with all the Tesla-gates as well, be it from HP, quarter mile issues to counters to whatnot, the solution usually ends up being "buy a new car, maybe that'll solve it". In the end, the software updates for old cars are of limited value once your car ages beyond the current platform (e.g. today AP2 cars are the current platform, so they get significant updates of course).

The big screen system has stayed the same since the start, so that is still a current platform for now, but I fully expect stagnation there too once a nice central computer is introduced and that is the new present-day target. (Maybe AP2 changes something, but Tesla already calls current AP2 Model S/X as "legacy" cars in their source code, so you know what that means...)

 

[piro]

For sure AP1 will share "knowledge" from AP2 & AP1 rides, as such updates base on correcting bias of some parameters (that cannot be theoretically calculated/optimized).