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AP2 - Definitely heading in the right direction...

Discussion in 'Model S: Driving Dynamics' started by Driver Dave, Jun 7, 2017.

  1. gearchruncher

    gearchruncher Member

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    I assumed we were talking about the path to FSD, not just highway cruising. The disconnect rates are based on city traffic, not open highway stretches. Where you actually have to react to traffic, lights, stop signs, pedestrians, bicyclists, and who should go first at a 4 way stop. Tesla is at 3 miles in these environments and others are at 5,000+. I'm guessing the companies that can manage a complex 90 degree turn at a San Francisco intersection in traffic laugh at keeping a car between the lines on a highway as any kind of challenge at all.
     
  2. gearchruncher

    gearchruncher Member

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    So what about Mobileye? Teslas from two years ago can do more than a Tesla from today because they used a third party product. The instant Tesla switched to internal systems, there was a precipitous drop in capability which persists 8 months later. Just like the other guys, the only thing that counts is what Tesla is shipping, and they aren't shipping much right now. They are demonstrably behind even themselves from a year ago. Mobileye on the other hand is shipping more.

    There's plenty of evidence that many other companies are way ahead of Tesla and working to stay there. Why do you think Tesla will be able to outperform them? Just because Tesla collects more data? Just because Tesla can push software updates?

    On top of all of this, if Tesla is so careful, why are they willing to roll out releases that clearly don't work in many cases? My car repeatably crosses into oncoming traffic on a few roads near my house. That's not evidence of being careful, that's evidence of using your customers as beta testers. What's the internet's reaction? "Don't use AP on surface streets, it isn't meant for that!" Well, if Tesla is so careful, why do they allow it to be used on surface streets when they have disabled that in past releases?

    The one thing Tesla has going for them is collecting data, but let's not lie about that- they are doing it while asking their customers to drive a crappy, alpha version that isn't ready for release to the mass public. That may help them accelerate. It may also distract them, and someone developing quietly on a test track somewhere could easily pop out 3 years from now with full FSD that blows Tesla away. I don't know how anyone can be sure which of those results will be true.
     
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  3. MurrayJimW

    MurrayJimW Member

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    Ha - no one is sure. Choose your stock picks carefully.
     
  4. Driver Dave

    Driver Dave Member

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    Mobileye is just a supplier. Who will get beaten down by competition and car manufactures using the competition against them.

    It's definitely not a crappy alpha version. I mean, I drove for miles and miles for hours and hours on a trip and had zero problems, and 100% wow this is a lot better than manual driving.

    Yes, with technology anything can happen. But unless they develop the car, supercharger, service centers, solar roof, garage batteries that go along with it, they really just have an app with no place to live.

    It is sort of like saying, someone could pop out a better shopping web site! Amazon is doomed!!!
     
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  5. AmpedInAustin

    AmpedInAustin Member

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  6. OilSucks

    OilSucks Member

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    Seriously what the hell am I missing here? This is DRIVING people, this isn't some lazy walk in the park. With anything related to 25+ mph activity, it would probably behoove you to read the updates, learn and understand the systems you are using, and become proficient in them.

    Anyone who thinks AP1 or AP2 DRIVES for you is insane. It is an assistance feature. Nothing more, nothing less. For what it does it does it DAMN well.
     
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  7. daktari

    daktari Member

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    Please take a look at Teslas commercial video of FSD on their blog. I paid extra for that. What part did I miss since my car can not do that yet?
    Videos | Tesla
     
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  8. JonG

    JonG Banned

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    Read what the FSD option says...

    Firstly... nearly all situations. That could mean "all situations except clearly predictable ones and you can go to sleep between them' or it could mean 'all situations except the odd unforseen one where the driver will have less than a second to realise and take over". If it's the latter, the FSD benefit is significantly reduced.

    Secondly, they hope for twice as safe.. the press will have a field day as soon as one person dies when a FSD car crashes. The authorities would prefer thousands of people to kill themselves in car crashes than let even 1/10 of that number die by computer.
     
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  9. NerdUno

    NerdUno Member

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    The technology for FSD is completely different than what Tesla has been struggling to develop with EAP just to catch up to AP1. Gotta love the choice of adjectives and verbs that @Driver Dave employs in describing Tesla's progress. Can't wait for the next California reports documenting actual miles driven without hands and tallying the number of failures. I'm betting Tesla's scorecard will be all goose eggs since their trumped up FSD video almost 9 months ago. In other words, the FSD hype is pure bullsh*t at the moment.
     
  10. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

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    @NerdUno why you mark disagree?
    I grew up with a flying school as the family business, taught up to ATPL level, and have had my pilot's license since I was 16.
    I can assure you that autopilot will fly you straight into a mountain. I know guys who've died by getting their sums wrong and doing just that.
     
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  11. JonG

    JonG Banned

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    I think there is a big difference here though. If autopilot on a plane was meant to detect the mountain and fly over it or around it and it didn't, we'd have a problem. A better comparison might be autoland working most of the time but with a bit of cross wind missed the runway.
     
  12. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    That is not what it said when many of us ordered our cars, though.

    Instead it said this:
    So a four camera, auto-lane-changing, ramp to ramp, Enhanced Autopilot (not some AP1 parity that is not reached yet even today)... expected to complete validation in December 2016 with only regulatory approval as the caveat emptor (which obviously is not the reason it is not out)...

    Tesla also said at the time on Tesla.com that AEB "will" be out in December 2016. And auto-windshield wipers.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    So basically you understood that Tesla was making a misleading representation of EAP in October-December 2016? Elon saying it will be beyond AP1 already in December 2016? EAP with four cameras, auto-lane-changes ramp-to-ramp completing validation in December 2016? AEB, auto-windshield wipers etc. all "will" come in December 2016?

    Because this is what Tesla actually said at the time.

    If you realized this was misleading, you were better than most of us.

    Had Tesla simply came out honestly last October saying the new Enhanced Auto-Pilot will be a out in about 12 months and AP1 parity is perhaps 6-9 months away, but we will make beta previews available for our customers already starting in December and involve them in the process, that would have been compatible with the reality. I would have respected that a lot more. But then by now we know from enough examples that this isn't how Tesla rolls...
     
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  14. bhzmark

    bhzmark Supporting Member

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    You evidently missed the part that says your car can't do that yet.

    The variability in reading comprehension of the masses is remarkable.
     
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  15. Driver Dave

    Driver Dave Member

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    Well I'm starting at a place where I'm ridiculously happy. I bought a car direct online with no dealer middleman skimming money off the deal. The car drives amazingly. I love the clean design. I'm getting "free gas" on trips on superchargers. It's an awesome experience.

    Plus I've got all this cool driving hardware that they are building the software for in real time, and I get to follow it along via updates. How cool is that?

    And to top it off, when I saw how great the car was and where tesla is heading, I bought a ton of stock at 190.

    Now when Tesla says the self driving is "taking more time than we thought because of mobileeye and we have to be super careful with new self driving features", I get it.

    I totally absolutely get it and go back to being ridiculously happy, looking forward to the next update and what's coming next.
     
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  16. wesley888

    wesley888 Member

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    Hear, hear! I cannot say it better myself! Continue loving the car wholeheartedly!
     
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  17. daktari

    daktari Member

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    Aha, you bought a car (without knowing about autopilot 2) and got more than expected. I paid extra to get FSD, but have not gotten anything close yet. I wish I was in your situation!
     
  18. alcibiades

    alcibiades Member

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    Thank you for revealing that you own a "ton" of stock.

    I'll remember to take your words shaded appropriately.
     
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  19. Driver Dave

    Driver Dave Member

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    Nope, totally new about AP2 and read carefully about it. Saw that it was "not yet ready", and that features would be rolled out one by one, and decided to go for it.

    Yes, was expecting everything a bit sooner, but understand how things could take more time than expected.

    Overall, have been happy with the fact that things are definitely coming out and working better and better. As opposed to sitting here still waiting for an update and nothing working.
     
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  20. Driver Dave

    Driver Dave Member

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    Oh stop, TSLA is perfectly capable of going up or down regardless of any random guy like me posting on a message board.
     
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