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Apple: Rumors of EV to Challenge Tesla or Buying Tesla

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Curt, What about the following angle ...
There are mounting pressure to bring assets US companies have accumulated overseas. I think there may be compromise made between corp. and the government on how to bring the money in.
Investing in US companies which have manufacturing presence in the US is one of them. So I think Tesla is an attractive company for these big high tech companies as a target.

Interesting point, wa_pacnw; I hadn’t considered that. Of course Google could be similarly affected. It may further motivate Elon to entice both of them into a bidding war related to some type of association with Tesla. Perhaps other TMC members involved with an international corporation can address this issue of pressure to manufacture in the United States.
 
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I could imagine Apple *wanting* to acquire Tesla for some small premium, but I see little benefit to Tesla and its prodcut line from such a deal.

Tesla already has the capital and cash flow to spend 'staggering' amounts to grow to 500k by 2020, and as Gen3/GF1 ramps up starting in two years that will provide the additional cash flow and demand confidence to build out factory 2+3, GF 2+3 by 2025. That's about as fast as you could grow this product line in a smart way - you solidify your demand footing (even if in our minds there is no question) and lessons from GF1 before moving forward. Let's not forget they're already reinventing the entire supply chain with partners committing significant skin in the game - they may not be comfortable betting their business until they see the first project to completion. Access to Apple's cash hoard would only accelerate Tesla's goals incrementally. Contrary to some suggestions, Apple would not throw down 5x Gigafactories and auto factories overnight before at least a first iteration product is in customer hands.


If Apple is serious about the EV game, Apple needs Tesla a lot more than Tesla needs Apple. I doubt they would go for a hostile takeover - enough of Elon's shareholders would follow him to shareholder hell on command.

I think a possible mutually beneficial move would be Apple taking a friendly 5-10% stake in Tesla. Apple would get to participate in a rapidly growing company, and Tesla would receive a huge endorsement from a quality brand. The latter would also prime the market (public EV perception -> increased public charging infrastructure) for an Apple EV down the road.
 
My speculation:

Apple is all about high margin high end products. They are rarely the market leader in sales, but are often the leader in profit. They sell less Macs than others make PCs, they sell way less phones than Samsung and HTC do...yet they make more money per sale. They do NOT chase market share by racing to the bottom of price to sell more. They don't want to or need to sell "more", they want to sell "best".

Right now, Tesla is in a similar position...but it's not where they want to be. They sold the Roadster, and now sell the premium Model S and (soon) Model X at a decent profit in order to move downmarket with a cheaper Model 3. The stated mission of Tesla is sustainable transportation for all. So Tesla WANTS to sell more (and others to sell more too).

So imagine this:
AAPL and TSLA create a joint venture. AAPL takes over the software development for the high end Model S and Model X, and sells them online, with delivery, and service by Tesla. AAPL gets the rights to develop new models based on that platform, and adds autonomous hardware and software. AAPL keeps the high end and over time moves up into the luxury EV market. They use contract manufacturing, starting with TSLA but eventually freeing up TSLA to build the smaller models. TSLA supplies the drivetrains and batteries from the gigafactories.

TSLA moves downmarket, and creates the Models 3, 4 and 5, each smaller and cheaper than the last. TSLA gets the small pickup and delivery van market too.

Together they build the second and third gigafactories and build out the supercharger network.

Not sure who gets the "Roadster 3.0" halo car. It's be in Apple's high end wheelhouse, but Tesla needs a halo car to keep things interesting too.

AAPL gets a new market to play in and skim the cream, TSLA gets the resources it needs to electrify the fleet faster than it otherwise would.
 
Spot on. I think the time has come for EV makers to measure their sales in GWh. For example, in 2014 Nissan sold 61,500 Leaf which comes in at 1.48 GWh. Not bad, but Tesa sold 31,600 @ 80 kWh, which works out to 2.53 GWh.
...
At any rate, growing GWh production is an essential indicator of strategic intent.

Here's a very crude attempt at figuring out how many GWh of batteries Apple shipped in 2014.

Assumptions:

2014 iPhones sold: 169.29 Million (source: Apple iPhone: global sales 2007-2015, by quarter | Statistic)
2014 iPads sold: 68.00 Million (source: Apple iPad: global sales 2010-2015, by quarter | Statistic)

iPhone 5 thru iPhone 6 Plus have between 5.45 Wh and 11.1 Wh batteries (source: iPhone - The iPhone Wiki)
iPad Mini 2/3 and iPad 4: have between 24.3 Wh and 42.5 Wh batteries (source: iPad - The iPhone Wiki)


As the breakdown of which models are sold isn't available, lets try best and worst cases:

All iPhone 55.45 Wh times169.29 Million sold= 0.92 GWh
All iPhone 6 Plus11.1 Wh169.29 Million= 1.87 GWh
All iPad Mini 224.3 Wh times68.0 Million sold= 1.65 GWh
All iPad 442.5 Wh68.0 Million= 2.89 GWh
0.92 + 1.65 = 2.57 GWh Minimum
1.87 + 2.89 = 4.76 GWh Maximum

So in iPads and iPhones alone, Apple sold somewhere between 2.57 and 4.76 GWh of batteries.

That ignores Macbook and iPod sales.
 
So imagine this:
AAPL and TSLA create a joint venture. AAPL takes over the software development for the high end Model S and Model X, and sells them online, with delivery, and service by Tesla. AAPL gets the rights to develop new models based on that platform, and adds autonomous hardware and software. AAPL keeps the high end and over time moves up into the luxury EV market. They use contract manufacturing, starting with TSLA but eventually freeing up TSLA to build the smaller models. TSLA supplies the drivetrains and batteries from the gigafactories.

TSLA moves downmarket, and creates the Models 3, 4 and 5, each smaller and cheaper than the last. TSLA gets the small pickup and delivery van market too.

Together they build the second and third gigafactories and build out the supercharger network.

Not sure who gets the "Roadster 3.0" halo car. It's be in Apple's high end wheelhouse, but Tesla needs a halo car to keep things interesting too.

AAPL gets a new market to play in and skim the cream, TSLA gets the resources it needs to electrify the fleet faster than it otherwise would.


While this scenario would likely put more EVs on the road, I think it would also damage the Tesla brand and possibly cause a shareholder revolt. Tesla's basic identity is as a luxury EV automaker. Tossing two of its iconic vehicles to Apple in order to move down the market scale, while still retaining the low margin activities of delivery and service seems like a bad deal (Apple gets the high margin of selling the car, while Tesla makes pennies transporting and fixing the cars -- remember Elon is against making a profit on service). If Apple were to eventually keep the high-end (Model S and X) entirely, this would negatively impact Tesla's gross margins and overall profitability. Also, there's enormous risk in moving the Model S and X lines to a non-Tesla contract manufacturer. Do you really want FoxConn trying to build Model S and X in China?

I also see a practical problem: If Apple were to take over software development on the S and X, Apple would likely want to ditch Linux in favor of some flavor of OS X. Where does that leave legacy Model S and X owners as far as software updates and security patches?

The goal of Tesla was never to electrify the entire transportation fleet. It was to prove that EVs were viable and spur competition. Tesla is a company with focus and great product. A venture with Apple would IMO result in needless product complication, brand dilution, and customer confusion.
 
Here's a very crude attempt at figuring out how many GWh of batteries Apple shipped in 2014.

Assumptions:

2014 iPhones sold: 169.29 Million (source: Apple iPhone: global sales 2007-2015, by quarter | Statistic)
2014 iPads sold: 68.00 Million (source: Apple iPad: global sales 2010-2015, by quarter | Statistic)

iPhone 5 thru iPhone 6 Plus have between 5.45 Wh and 11.1 Wh batteries (source: iPhone - The iPhone Wiki)
iPad Mini 2/3 and iPad 4: have between 24.3 Wh and 42.5 Wh batteries (source: iPad - The iPhone Wiki)


As the breakdown of which models are sold isn't available, lets try best and worst cases:

All iPhone 55.45 Wh times169.29 Million sold= 0.92 GWh
All iPhone 6 Plus11.1 Wh169.29 Million= 1.87 GWh
All iPad Mini 224.3 Wh times68.0 Million sold= 1.65 GWh
All iPad 442.5 Wh68.0 Million= 2.89 GWh
0.92 + 1.65 = 2.57 GWh Minimum
1.87 + 2.89 = 4.76 GWh Maximum

So in iPads and iPhones alone, Apple sold somewhere between 2.57 and 4.76 GWh of batteries.

That ignores Macbook and iPod sales.

Call that 4 GWh, and call an average Model S 80kWh. That is 50k average Model Ss. So Tesla has shipped about half as much batteries as Apple in 2014, and will probably overtake them this year. I admit I'm surprised by this. Apple is currently running about the same capacity as the entire EV market.
 
Tesla's basic identity is as a luxury EV automaker.
Well, Elon calls it "premium" not luxury. That's part of my point...let Apple deal with low volume luxury while Tesla moves on to high volume mass electrification.

Tossing two of its iconic vehicles to Apple in order to move down the market scale, while still retaining the low margin activities of delivery and service seems like a bad deal (Apple gets the high margin of selling the car, while Tesla makes pennies transporting and fixing the cars -- remember Elon is against making a profit on service). If Apple were to eventually keep the high-end (Model S and X) entirely, this would negatively impact Tesla's gross margins and overall profitability. Also, there's enormous risk in moving the Model S and X lines to a non-Tesla contract manufacturer. Do you really want FoxConn trying to build Model S and X in China?
Apple would pay Tesla for the service. And yes, Apple gets the high margin...Tesla doesn't need it anymore, as they'll be selling 100x the volume of Apple cars. And what's wrong with FoxConn building in China (or Brazil or wherever)? With much lower volumes the high end platforms would just get in the way at a mass market Tesla factory. Contract manufacturers work quite well for many low volume brands. As for gross margins...they are going to be dropping anyway as the sales of Models 3, 4 and 5 overwhelm those of the S and X.

I also see a practical problem: If Apple were to take over software development on the S and X, Apple would likely want to ditch Linux in favor of some flavor of OS X. Where does that leave legacy Model S and X owners as far as software updates and security patches?
What happened with OS X when it switched from PPC to x86? Both were fully supported for quite some time...and Apple even supplied emulators to run the old PPC applications for years under x86. When OS X went from 16 to 32 bit, and then to 64 bit they managed the transition way better than Microsoft or any flavor of Linux did at the time. Without any 3rd party apps to support, a truly closed system such as the Model S software should be easier to switch out the underlying OS than previous Apple OS updates were, and Apple did a pretty good job with those.

The goal of Tesla was never to electrify the entire transportation fleet. It was to prove that EVs were viable and spur competition. Tesla is a company with focus and great product. A venture with Apple would IMO result in product complication, brand dilution, and customer confusion.
"Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable transport." Source: About Tesla | Tesla Motors

I don't see brand dilution, or customer confusion. Having the identical (or slightly modified) car built by two different nameplates is quite common. Acura had the (short lived) Sterling brand building what was known in the states as the Acura Legend in Britain. The Acura ilx is just a Honda Civic plus some bling. It happens all the time, and customers are not confused. Think of Apple is to Tesla as Lexus is to Toyota.
 
Yes! This is what I'm talking about! See how Apple can benefit Tesla? They just nailed that design...Perfect. Wouldn't change a thing:

700.hq.jpg

Features Of The Apple Car | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

  • Comes with couple of cool Apple stickers
And what a lovely gesture that is.
 
Well, Elon calls it "premium" not luxury. That's part of my point...let Apple deal with low volume luxury while Tesla moves on to high volume mass electrification.

In the entire universe of smart phones, Apple makes most of the profit on a small % of total phone sales, while the mass-market Android handset makers churn out the majority of phones, but make thin-as-ice margins, if they are profitable at all. If Tesla's long-term focus changes to low-margin Corolla type cars, then as an investor, I'm done with the company.


Apple would pay Tesla for the service. And yes, Apple gets the high margin...Tesla doesn't need it anymore, as they'll be selling 100x the volume of Apple cars. And what's wrong with FoxConn building in China (or Brazil or wherever)? With much lower volumes the high end platforms would just get in the way at a mass market Tesla factory. Contract manufacturers work quite well for many low volume brands. As for gross margins...they are going to be dropping anyway as the sales of Models 3, 4 and 5 overwhelm those of the S and X.

Apple has a reputation for squeezing its suppliers and having onerous supply contracts. Tesla would end up getting hardly anything, while Apple would pass the cost on to the customer.

What's wrong with FoxConn? It's CEO compared workers to animals and said they were difficult to manage.


What happened with OS X when it switched from PPC to x86? Both were fully supported for quite some time...and Apple even supplied emulators to run the old PPC applications for years under x86. When OS X went from 16 to 32 bit, and then to 64 bit they managed the transition way better than Microsoft or any flavor of Linux did at the time. Without any 3rd party apps to support, a truly closed system such as the Model S software should be easier to switch out the underlying OS than previous Apple OS updates were, and Apple did a pretty good job with those.

It seems inefficient to duplicate operating system development efforts, especially considering that Tesla would be providing service and delivery under this model. There would need to be two sets of everything, one for OS X and one for Linux: training manuals, stuff for DS and service center techs to learn, different diagnostic tools, etc. One could get around this by having a common user interface and APIs, but then what is the point of having 2 OSes in the first place?


"Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable transport." Source: About Tesla | Tesla Motors

I don't see brand dilution, or customer confusion. Having the identical (or slightly modified) car built by two different nameplates is quite common. Acura had the (short lived) Sterling brand building what was known in the states as the Acura Legend in Britain. The Acura ilx is just a Honda Civic plus some bling. It happens all the time, and customers are not confused. Think of Apple is to Tesla as Lexus is to Toyota.

Yikes, this is not a good thing. The Acura ILX is a spectacular failure, as it failed to achieve American Honda Motors' sales projections, was panned by the car mags, and is viewed with disdain by the Honda enthusiast community. I am very opposed to badge engineering.

Tesla is not, and has never been a "Toyota". Toyota today stands for nothing good except reliability. Their cars generally have terrible handling, mediocre powertrains, awful styling, and are just plain boring. The entire reason for Tesla's existence is to prove that EVs can be better than ICEs, and desirable. Ceding the desirability aspect of the brand to Apple fundamentally changes the nature of Tesla. I can't agree with any of that.

As a shareholder (albeit one owning "small potatoes" compared to most here), I'd much rather see Tesla selling a smaller number of high-margin cars, than a Camry/Corolla amount of cars on thin margins. Apple doesn't pursue the low end because there's no money there. Why should Tesla go for the low end?
 
The entire reason for Tesla's existence is to prove that EVs can be better than ICEs, and desirable. Ceding the desirability aspect of the brand to Apple fundamentally changes the nature of Tesla. I can't agree with any of that.
And nothing says that Tesla's "low end" isn't better than ICEs. It's still an EV with all the great characteristics an EV brings to driving. It's just cheaper so they can sell more of them and move the needle on EV adoption quicker.

As a shareholder (albeit one owning "small potatoes" compared to most here), I'd much rather see Tesla selling a smaller number of high-margin cars, than a Camry/Corolla amount of cars on thin margins. Apple doesn't pursue the low end because there's no money there. Why should Tesla go for the low end?
As a shareholder, you are probably correct that small higher margin cars are better for the share price...but as a shareholder you should be aware that pursuing maximum value is NOT Tesla Motors vision or mission. It's not about the money or share price (as much as any public company can do that). Tesla wants to go for the low end as that is the best way to accomplish their mission. The "secret plan" was to start high and move low, making enough money to move to the next phase.

They seem to be able to do that just fine on their own right now, but probably can do it faster with outside help. Tesla has done everything possible to get others to see the light...giving away patents, selling drive trains and batteries, opening up the Supercharger network to those who will help fund it and can use it effectively...but it hasn't had the effect they anticipated. No one else wants to play. My speculation above is one way Apple can help with the mission and both get value out of the deal.

If Apple comes out with an EV that competes directly with Tesla, then Tesla wins anyway, as more and more people move off fossil fuels and into sustainable transport.
 
In the entire universe of smart phones, Apple makes most of the profit on a small % of total phone sales, while the mass-market Android handset makers churn out the majority of phones, but make thin-as-ice margins, if they are profitable at all. If Tesla's long-term focus changes to low-margin Corolla type cars, then as an investor, I'm done with the company.

Look, I'm not trying to argue Apple vs Samsung or Dell. I agree with you completely about how Apple does it's thing, and how analysts who insist Apple sell a low end model phone or netbook are just dead wrong, and that's not how Apple roles.

However, as far as Tesla goes, they've stated quite early (before they went public) what they want to do and how they intend to do it, and the low end is the final stage:
So, in short, the master plan is:

  1. Build sports car
  2. Use that money to build an affordable car
  3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car
  4. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
Don't tell anyone.
Source: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Tesla Motors

With the Models S and X, Tesla was trying for step 2, but got stuck at step 1.5 as neither are "affordable" by most measures. With the P85D they went backwards, so it's possible the plan is not being followed that closely anymore. But with the Model 3 finally comes step 2, and whatever comes after that will presumably step 3. Those steps are all "down market" with less profit. It's a strategy for growth, not profit margin. Perhaps the growth will drive the value faster than the erosion of profit...that's often the way of these things.
 
here's the tl dr:

tesla/spacex are about changing the world

apple is about being the most profitable follower of someone else's innovation.

one makes $$$. the other makes long term, visionary investments.

if you want to harm that tesla spirit, then one of the ways would be an apple purchase. simple as that.
 
Interesting tid bits on Apple's design chief and team

Design guru Sir Jony Ive is Apple's Hand of King

The article paints the picture of the Apple's design team culture

Highlights

In addition to Ive and his team of designers, writer Ian Parker was given exclusive access to Apple's design lab, an area that's even off limits to many Apple employees.

The article confirms the "bromance" between Jobs and Ive that began almost from their first meeting in 1997

"If Jobs and Ive had a father-son dynamic, Ive and Cook seem like respectful cousins," Parker writes.

Apple's instructions to its (mainly Chinese) manufacturers include "a tool's tracking path, speed, and appropriate level of lubricant"

When an Apple designer walks in to a meeting it is "like being in church when the priest walks in", according to a former engineering intern.

Team members are expected to work 12 hours a day and are not permitted to discuss their work with friends.

To find the best designers, Apple employs three recruiters whose sole task is to identify job candidates.

Since 2000, only two designers have left the studio, one because of ill health. About one new designer a year joins the group.

On Australian designer Marc Newson, the Australian-born designer and close friend who joined Apple last year as a London-based employee

  • Ive said he and Newson could "incite ourselves to a sort of fever pitch" over poorly designed products that had been "developed to a schedule, to a cost" or "developed to be different, not better".

  • The pair are car lovers - Ive owns a Bentley Mulsanne and an Aston Martin DB 4 - who feel underwhelmed with most modern cars. "There are some shocking cars on the road," Ive said. "One person's car is another person's scenery."

  • Newson and Ive share an "economic similarity". "Neither of us came from particularly privileged backgrounds," Newson said. "A lot of what I've done has been an effort to try to have the things that I didn't own when I was a child."

  • Ive denied that Newson's appointment was a way for him to plan his departure from Apple.

The last statement is intriguing. Often when someone denies something, there might be a good chance of the opposite being a possibility.
 
Apple wants CarPlay to succeed. It wants support for that from the car makers including Tesla. What's that? Some manufacturers balking at the idea? Put out a rumor about making the whole car then.. Nobody wants to compete with Apple.

If not a fake rumor, were Apple were to acquire a motor brand, Tesla would be a great one to use. With Apple's financial and software backing, Tesla would be assured of a very successful accelerated future.

It depends on how badly does Apple want Carplay to succeed and whether the car makers are embracing it or not.