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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Not HODL, as I'll be doing fairly aggressive CC's against it. Not loss-basis aggressive, but still well within realm to get called away. I like playing the put side more than the call side of the wheel.

So, sold a 855 CC for this Friday for a neat $8. Of course the SP jumped to 820 from 812 when I sold it, so I missed some profit, but I'm happy with this call. 855 is higher than I "bought" them at, so I'll get to pocket the net gain from the put from last week, and the call from this week, and the difference. Win-win-win in my books, even if the SP is 900 by Friday.
 
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Great thread, guys. Does anyone have a spreadsheet formula (or a link to a site) that helps me calculate an exit to CC rolled multiple times? I have rolled up a CC maybe 4-5 times now and gained the credits. But the expiration dates moved up from Feb into Jul and I would like to bring it down earlier (Mar? Apr?) even if the final profit becomes smaller. The Asks have come down so I'd like to buy back as early as possible, even at breakeven or low gain.

Basically, enter my 4 trades, and it gives me the buyback ask/strike that will close a loop. Bonus if I can indicate I want premium $xxx final gain, for example.

I'm sure these are simple spreadsheet formulas. Any help is much appreciated. Thanks!

Not a website, but it's math you can do yourself. Or that you can build a spreadsheet to do the math as well.

If you've been tracking your trades, then you have the realized results on the buy-to-close leg from each roll. The net credit is the amount above the closing price that you're receiving. I.e. - if you close a $40 premium option for a $3 net credit, then the new position is a $43 premium option.

In effect, all of the net credits over the sequence are accumulating within the premium of your most recent option.


I've got a position right now that I opened for a $9 credit. Rolled for a $4 net credit. Rolled for a $3 net credit. Rolled again for a $3 net credit.

The currently open covered call was opened for a $77 premium ($3 more than the buy-to-close leg in this roll).

The last $19 of that $77 are my net credits, so an early close for a 75% gain will happen at $5 remaining (75% of $19), with the other $58 going to pay for the losses on the previous positions. (numbers are rounded).

My guess of the moment is that I'll show a gain when I roll again at the end of the week, while still showing an overall loss on the position when I next roll. That next roll will also be for a net credit (or at least, that is my plan right now, and is my default for this). I also expect this particular BTC leg of the next roll to show a profit.

So far the realized results are:
1) loss of $36 on the first roll ($9 open, $45 close)
2) loss of $34 on the second roll ($49 open, $83 close)
3) gain of $12 on the third roll ($86 open, $74 close)
current position - $77 at open.

So I'm cash flow positive thus far, will continue to be so as long as I'm rolling for a net credit. The realized results follow along behind the cash flow.

If I were to buy out the current position ($40 current value on the cc), then I would show a gain of $37 on this leg ($77 credit to open, $40 debit to close).

The overall position would be an approximately $25 loss while also owning 100 shares valued at roughly $100 more than I bought them for.

But I don't plan, nor need, to close the position right now. If we can stay here in the mid 800s for the remainder of the week, then the time value will be close to 0 ($2-5) late in the week with intrinsic value of $45 (assuming $850 share price). That should provide a good roll up to the $830(ish) strike for Feb 19. The net credit on the next roll will get added to what I've already accumulated as a component (the final component) of that new premium.
 
Does this sound like a reasonable idea, and an efficient use of capital for someone who doesn't have a huge amount of cash/margin available?

Short answer, yes, it sounds reasonable.

Longer answer, I'd apply slightly different logic. Note that calendars are my go-to, so I'm a little biased...

Anyway, personally I like starting my calendars as horizontals, with OTM long legs, then as underlying moves up I transition into diagonals to keep the short leg sufficiently OTM. I also really don't like super long dated options as (IMHO) the whole point of trading options is to leverage fluctuation in the Greeks, and the farther the date, the less The Greeks really fluctuate. I really prefer to keep mine within 6-12 months because price performance is and the magnitude of greek fluctuations is higher, but I also don't hold any particular position for a very long time (Very long for me = months). I can appreciate that one might want to notionally hold through to long term gains; when I've been in that space I've targeted 15 months...18 at the most. Nobody in their right mind would hold a long call until expiration, so at 12 months I'll usually close or roll the position. But, some folks find value in very long dated long options--they most emulate stock--and if that's your objective then there's nothing wrong with the super long expirys.

Here's some benefits of the long leg being entered OTM vs DITM:
--The lower cost gets you more initial ∆ per dollar. While the $600 March 23 is $443 right now with .81 ∆, the March 23 $1000 is $329 with .67 ∆, or (bxr's math willing) about 11% better delta/dollar. That manifests as less portfolio exposure for the same number of calls, or more position ∆ for the same amount of portfolio exposure (you buy more calls for the same amount of money). That's a pretty important factor, as buying more calls allows you to sell more calls (That are covered), improving both total returns and returns vs initial capital from the short legs. You're presumably still selling the same strike price as you would with the DITM long leg, so by having more long calls you're literally increasing your short leg returns by multiples.
--The OTM strike gets you more favorable ∆ and volatility profiles relative to underlying movement. The Greeks are not fixed values, they ebb and flow with a number of variables, underlying price being a big one. Depending on where your strike is relative to underlying, and depending on The Greek determines where you are on those sometimes conflicting ebbing and flowing curves. Importantly for ∆ and volatility, as underlying moves in your direction the profile of those impacts becomes progressively more favorable, so you make more and more as you get closer to the money. Even more Importantly, the profile of those impacts becomes progressively less detrimental with unfavorable moves in underlying. That's A Good Thing.

For the short leg, I don't particularly like the strike being closer to the money than the long leg, so its sort of a balance trying to find the right horizontal strike point. For round numbers, maybe I'd look at something like a $1000 right now for a long term position? I don't mind being a little agressive on the strike from that perspective, because while the P/L does start to drop as underlying moves above the strike, it doesn't do so too steeply, so there's time to recover, either by rolling the short legs out or by pulling the rip cord on the whole position. Also, going farther OTM on the strike means the short leg cycles pay out less, so there's a whole balance to be found in there with no one right answer.

As far as maintenance/rolling goes, its mostly about keeping the short leg strike a comfortable distance OTM. See above posts for some back and forth logic on that. Longer term, assuming it was a good position and the long leg has ended up ITM, I won't keep it there for long, and certainly not DITM for long. I'll roll the DITM to a higher strike based on the above entry logic, likely splitting into more contracts and/or potentially also scraping some realized profit off the position.

For the record: I am on week two of a couple of horizontal $900 spreads, playing weeklies on the short legs and March on the long legs. I paid $7850 for the long legs and so far have burned off ~$2600 from each of them. I'll be closing by end of February regardless (or at least rolling out) when I expect to--worst-case--have fully paid off the long legs. That makes my probable worst case a break even (Obviously if TSLA tanks 50% I'm SOL) and any value in the position at that point is profit.
 
... huge losses on the short calls and huge gains on the LEAPS.

That is the way of things. Every position is a trade-off of some kind or another; its important to understand what those trade-offs are before entering. If one is selling short contracts, there's always a risk that underlying will rise above the strike price. In a covered call that's kind of a non-issue (you just stop earning profit). In a calendar--any kind of calendar--the P/L slope starts to go negative at some point (that point is bigly a function of the chosen strikes and expirys, but for horizontals its basically at the strike price)

That's why when you set up a calendar spread (or a covered call), you need to contemplate plausible and probable outcomes and choose your strikes/expirys accordingly. To wit, if one's analysis says TSLA is going to easily double in a month, one shouldn't be selling monthly calls in a calendar spread at any strike lower than 2x underlying (or at least not without some consideration for exiting mid-rally).
 
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Not a website, but it's math you can do yourself. Or that you can build a spreadsheet to do the math as well.

If you've been tracking your trades, then you have the realized results on the buy-to-close leg from each roll. The net credit is the amount above the closing price that you're receiving. I.e. - if you close a $40 premium option for a $3 net credit, then the new position is a $43 premium option.

In effect, all of the net credits over the sequence are accumulating within the premium of your most recent option.


I've got a position right now that I opened for a $9 credit. Rolled for a $4 net credit. Rolled for a $3 net credit. Rolled again for a $3 net credit.

The currently open covered call was opened for a $77 premium ($3 more than the buy-to-close leg in this roll).

The last $19 of that $77 are my net credits, so an early close for a 75% gain will happen at $5 remaining (75% of $19), with the other $58 going to pay for the losses on the previous positions. (numbers are rounded).

My guess of the moment is that I'll show a gain when I roll again at the end of the week, while still showing an overall loss on the position when I next roll. That next roll will also be for a net credit (or at least, that is my plan right now, and is my default for this). I also expect this particular BTC leg of the next roll to show a profit.

So far the realized results are:
1) loss of $36 on the first roll ($9 open, $45 close)
2) loss of $34 on the second roll ($49 open, $83 close)
3) gain of $12 on the third roll ($86 open, $74 close)
current position - $77 at open.

So I'm cash flow positive thus far, will continue to be so as long as I'm rolling for a net credit. The realized results follow along behind the cash flow.

If I were to buy out the current position ($40 current value on the cc), then I would show a gain of $37 on this leg ($77 credit to open, $40 debit to close).

The overall position would be an approximately $25 loss while also owning 100 shares valued at roughly $100 more than I bought them for.

But I don't plan, nor need, to close the position right now. If we can stay here in the mid 800s for the remainder of the week, then the time value will be close to 0 ($2-5) late in the week with intrinsic value of $45 (assuming $850 share price). That should provide a good roll up to the $830(ish) strike for Feb 19. The net credit on the next roll will get added to what I've already accumulated as a component (the final component) of that new premium.

Thank you! I think i understand this rolling calculation and accumulating credits on the premium. I made it more complicated than it is. I'm going to re-read it again and again, and then build the spreadsheet.

Cheers
 
Well, having sold a Feb 5 $840 put last week, I'm a lot happier this evening than I was Friday evening. I didn't think Tesla was worth any less, and I didn't actually think the earnings report was bad, and with analyst upgrades already coming in I was a little shocked to see the $700s again. I can never say a drop like that was entirely unexpected, but certainly an unpleasant surprise. I guess volatility is the price of entry. :)

Still not sure I want to sell a covered call just yet. Alex Potter Mr. $1200. Sheesh.
 
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So today I initiated my first roll. I had a CC expiring 2/5 with a strike price of $870. I don't want my shares called away so I rolled to 2/12 $910 but I'm thinking this will be ITM at expiration. Is this normally how people roll? Just kick it down the road until you have a net credit?

I have a question about taxes. I bought this lot of shares 2 years ago when the price was in the $180 range (pre split). If the shares get called away, I'm assuming I will have to pay taxes on the gains of those shares?
 
I have a question about taxes. I bought this lot of shares 2 years ago when the price was in the $180 range (pre split). If the shares get called away, I'm assuming I will have to pay taxes on the gains of those shares?

Yes. The sale price for tax purposes will essentially be the cost of the shares + the premium collected. Although it doesn't seem to be in play here, I recommend also being familiar with the tax implications of qualified vs unqualified covered calls so there aren't tax surprises in the future.

Tax Implications of Covered Calls - Fidelity
 
So today I initiated my first roll. I had a CC expiring 2/5 with a strike price of $870. I don't want my shares called away so I rolled to 2/12 $910 but I'm thinking this will be ITM at expiration. Is this normally how people roll? Just kick it down the road until you have a net credit?

I have a question about taxes. I bought this lot of shares 2 years ago when the price was in the $180 range (pre split). If the shares get called away, I'm assuming I will have to pay taxes on the gains of those shares?

Yes. You'll pay long term gains on those shares, so it's not as bad as short, but the price basis will be the original cost per share. For 180 pre split, that's going to be quite the hefty sum!
 
Is this normally how people roll? Just kick it down the road until you have a net credit?

There's a lot of discussion upthread on roll strategies, but generally my personal rules for rolling an short, ITM contract are:
--Always roll at even or a small credit
--Generally keep the new expiration as close as possible while also incrementing up a strike
--Just keep rolling until you get back to the money (= do NOT try to recover all in one roll)

I have a question about taxes. I bought this lot of shares 2 years ago when the price was in the $180 range (pre split). If the shares get called away, I'm assuming I will have to pay taxes on the gains of those shares?

Yes, you will pay taxes (assuming the account is not tax deferred). It's a pretty generous window for 15%, so odds are it really won't matter much if you pay those taxes now or later.
 
So far the realized results are:
1) loss of $36 on the first roll ($9 open, $45 close)
2) loss of $34 on the second roll ($49 open, $83 close)
3) gain of $12 on the third roll ($86 open, $74 close)
current position - $77 at open.

The saga of the ITM call continues. Previously set for expiration this Friday, with the big move up the time value dropped to about $2.

I've rolled from the Feb 5 805 call to the Feb 19 Feb 820 call for a $3 credit.

Relative to the previous position:
4) gain of $2 on the 4th roll ($77 open, $75 close).
current position $78 at open ($3 credit)


I'm of mixed mind about this roll. On the plus side the time value was very low when I rolled. On the down side I've had $3 credit / 830 strike rolls available the last few days; this big move up has reduced the roll choices available. I think that waiting has hurt the new position I've gotten into. It would still have been hard to roll with $30 of time value remaining so I'll be thinking about what I could have done differently.


I have a remaining 865 / 850 inverted strangle left for this Friday expiration. Each leg has quite a bit of time value remaining, so I'm letting them continue aging.
 
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What expiration? Remember that farther expiration IV moves much less than close expiration. IV30 had a pretty significant drop from ~80 to ~66. If you're playing earnings (= you're expecting to burn down sold option value via a post-earnings drop in volatility), you want to generally be closer in expiration. Weeks, generally, not months.



Certainly the run up to earnings was a bit of a dud considering other 2020 volatility spikes, but at the same time, IV30 = 100 was a bit of a hope-real-hard number as opposed to an "expecting" number.

Potentially good news is that IV may hit a post-covid ~bottom in a couple weeks.
View attachment 631740

Of course, if you believe 2020 to be an anomaly, your outlook on IV is much different.
View attachment 631741

I have January 22nd $1050 :confused:. I been watching the IV on the call it self and pre-earning was 82-80 and pos earnings still the same with yesterday 78. If IV on that call would drop to 70 I would be able to close it even at the current SP. I tried to close them the other day when the SP dropped but my order didn't went through. Tesla IV was 62 yesterday. Is the IV on the call a lagging parameter? Will it hit 70 on that call at some point?
 
I have January 22nd $1050 :confused:. I been watching the IV on the call it self and pre-earning was 82-80 and pos earnings still the same with yesterday 78. If IV on that call would drop to 70 I would be able to close it even at the current SP. I tried to close them the other day when the SP dropped but my order didn't went through. Tesla IV was 62 yesterday. Is the IV on the call a lagging parameter? Will it hit 70 on that call at some point?

IV on the Jan 22 strike has been pretty stable over the past month. However it was much lower previous so there's a chance it can drop that low if we stabalise. Image below from IBKR TWS:

Jan22 IV.jpg
 
I over extended on covered calls after S&P inclusion, expecting a lull but instead got caught in the rapid rise from the mid 600's to high 800's. I had a lot of covered calls that became well ITM but decided to roll them up and out based on advice from @bxr140 and others in this thread. On Friday I was able to finally close out all but a couple that I had prematurely rolled earlier in the week. I should be able to close out the remainder within a couple more rolls, boosted by Put sales where needed.

While not an experience I want to repeat, it has given me confidence that its possible to recover from some pretty extreme moves in the stock price. I've now settled back into a more measured routine of selling 5 Puts and 5 Calls for 2 weeks out on a weekly basis. I'm selling margin backed Puts at various strikes around 5-10% under on a late week dip or MMD. The Calls are now more conservative at around 25% over, sold early/mid week after a run up. While still early days, it's working out well so far with profits going into LEAP call spreads or more shares.
 
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Seems like the IV crush begins today. Per my understanding, IV reflects the rise/fall in demand for options. As TSLA moves, theta, delta, gamma, etc... all changes according to a formula. However, the actual price quoted can still be influenced further by the actual demand for the option, i.e. buyers' expectation of further large moves. Since we dropped furiously after ER, option holders were not ready to liquidate their positions, expecting a rebound. We're done rebounding and actually consolidating a bit today. This is when option buyers reassess their expectation. Since it doesn't look like we're going anywhere at this moment, they begin to book profit, which leads to a drop in IV. We can still make big moves as institutions continue to buy, but those big purchases can't be timed or predicted.
 
Ugh. The SP being below 855 this morning was a gift of opportunity for me to close out my CC and then to sell another one during the next inevitable rise.

I did not cover. I’m certain I’ll have regrets when he SP is like 900 on Friday. But meh.
 
I over extended on covered calls after S&P inclusion, expecting a lull but instead got caught in the rapid rise from the mid 600's to high 800's. I had a lot of covered calls that became well ITM but decided to roll them up and out based on advice from @bxr140 and others in this thread. On Friday I was able to finally close out all but a couple that I had prematurely rolled earlier in the week. I should be able to close out the remainder within a couple more rolls, boosted by Put sales where needed.

While not an experience I want to repeat, it has given me confidence that its possible to recover from some pretty extreme moves in the stock price. I've now settled back into a more measured routine of selling 5 Puts and 5 Calls for 2 weeks out on a weekly basis. I'm selling margin backed Puts at various strikes around 5-10% under on a late week dip or MMD. The Calls are now more conservative at around 25% over, sold early/mid week after a run up. While still early days, it's working out well so far with profits going into LEAP call spreads or more shares.
Thanks for the update. This also gives me more confidence that rolling to recover is possible. I will try to emulate your method, but without the too much CC risk. Without access to margin, I’m limited to a couple CCs and CSPs. I’ve been very hesitant to sell CCs again, because I recently had some called away (my mistake was reducing free cash in the IRA account below the amount required to buy back the CC). Great post. Thanks
 
Will it hit 70 on that call at some point?

Likely. When is a different story. In the IV screenshots basically follow the IV360 line (the grey line, also the slowest moving line in the IV fan) and you'll see where its been. One could speculate based on previous IV movement rates that further movement down to 70 (or even the post-corona low of 62) is plausible and even likely, and could take on the order of a few weeks. One could also speculate that the post-corona numbers IV numbers we've seen around the market (not just TSLA) are crazy high, and they could return over the next few months (or maybe longer) down to previous levels. To wit, the post-corona "low" TSLA IV360 is higher than the highest IV 360 from 2019.

Marginally related, I'm building a thesis to eventually validate (or not) an IV signal using the IVXX fan, for the purpose of best identifying probable IV movement and ultimately maximizing strike and expiry choice (when folded in with my other suite of indicators). 0th order analysis says when the fan inverts--so, when IV 30 is on the bottom and IV360 is on the top--it is generally a good time to buy options. It feels like there's something in there relative to the magnitude of the inversion (basically, how much lower IV 30 is than IV360), and more generally it feels like there's something in there regarding relative movement of the fan blades. Sometimes they all move in step, sometimes (for instance, a few days ago as show in the screenshot below) IV30 will make a pretty big daily move but IV 360 won't.

When combined with speculation on trader intent/typical moves like @dl003 provided above, I think there's going to be a lot of benefit. Time will tell. Too bad I have a day job...

upload_2021-2-3_8-55-50.png