I think most people here are selling weeklies to avoid such a situation, plus there are lots of catalysts for movement like P&D and ER that have to be considered. Also I think rather than monte carlo simulations many people use delta as a shorthand for % chance ITM to guide their strategies.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Feel free to ask. I usually have time to elaborate things while "starring the stock higher"i wish i understood even half of this... for real!
InTheShadows
Active Member
All of the calls I sold Wednesday for next week have closed now. Will wait for Monday’s pump in the morning to look at reselling them.
doubt any of my puts will close today unless we get some movement above 760.
Weekly theta gains 1.17%
I wasn’t sure I was going to hit my target with the new taking profits at 50% rule I switched to this week.
doubt any of my puts will close today unless we get some movement above 760.
Weekly theta gains 1.17%
I wasn’t sure I was going to hit my target with the new taking profits at 50% rule I switched to this week.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Stop that this instant!I usually have time to elaborate things while "starring the stock higher"
We all agreed Monday and Tuesday are the days for stock rallies. Friday is theta-bleed-out-day.
Just an FYI - the IV on the Put side of my IC for next week has ripped up to 76 and 82 respectively.
The strikes are -$650 / +$630
Looking at selling an additional BPS to compliment the IC with this IV spike.
The strikes are -$650 / +$630
Looking at selling an additional BPS to compliment the IC with this IV spike.
Mostly agree. But there's also this guy who bought 500k shares this week and will keep buying into next.
His motivation was ARK's 4x prediction and Elon's agreement, not FSD. I think half of that 4x comes from FSD though in Elon's mind.
Anyway, Beta 10 having an immediate impact is kinda unlikely. Sentiment changing and a few of these Leos jumping in, possible.
but .. but .. i already closed all short calls ...
mickificki
Member
added on Wednesday with a STO 4x 9/10CC 760 strike, $4.00. Also STO 5x 9/17CC 780 strike for $5.40.
Thank you to everyone here for all your contributions. I'm slooooooooooowly learning the ropes.
For any of my Iron Condors - I like to be really wide from the strike - I opened these last week when we were $25 lower.
The call side is $785/$805
For the week of 09/24 I have $820/$840 and paired with $695/$675
Let's me sleep better at night.
Ok, felt like the 754-755 was the floor and the MMs had the SP exactly where they wanted it. Closed out c755s @ $2.8-$3.2, c760s @ $1, and c770s for pennies. Decent profits (70-90%) this week. Finally realized that I’m not comfortable watching the ticker on Friday with sold ATM calls. Really like the higher premiums, but not the Friday stress, so I’ll target higher from now on. On the anti-wheel side, I BOUGHT 10x 9/17 +c780s @ $3.40, hopefully to sell Monday for 100% profit (probably wasted those OPM $$$, but we shall see).
Question. I rolled a 750 to a 760 next week for a $4.20 profit [yay]. I'm playing this one close as I'm ok with it going through the wheel.
That said, would it usually be profitable to close it near end of day today and then reopen on a possible/probably spike Monday morning? Or does the time decay make that much of a difference? Thank you!
That said, would it usually be profitable to close it near end of day today and then reopen on a possible/probably spike Monday morning? Or does the time decay make that much of a difference? Thank you!
calculate around 2x theta for time decay over weekend & what a 5$-opening-spike (~delta*5) would do and what is more profitable..
that is only a rough back-on-the-envelope calculaton, but could help point in a direction.
Thank you! Is there a website to help with such things?calculate around 2x theta for time decay over weekend & what a 5$-opening-spike (~delta*5) would do and what is more profitable..
that is only a rough back-on-the-envelope calculaton, but could help point in a direction.
The fact that I didn't go through all the lessons suggested on the first page of this thread might be showing. lol
Yeah, except when I sold a c760-860 spread last Friday, I wasn’t thinking it was ATM. Oops. I closed this morning for a small profit; would have been $1 better later in the day but my other options did fine and I wanted that off my plate.
My put spreads rolled to 9/17 (a range topping out from $700-$730) better than expected this morning. Like everything $1 higher than expected. Between that and my poor predictive powers, I’m not selling any calls today. We‘ll see what Monday holds.
AquaY
Member
Why are Puts trading at such high premiums for next Friday?
Every indicator to me seems bullish yet Put credits are at high premiums.
710s for 9/17 Bid Ask 7.00- 7.20
That just seems too high.
what am I missing?
Every indicator to me seems bullish yet Put credits are at high premiums.
710s for 9/17 Bid Ask 7.00- 7.20
That just seems too high.
what am I missing?
I mentioned a little bit upthread that IV spiked up to between 74 and 84 on the puts for next week - but the calls are still in the IV 28 area.
Really weird and I don't know why but it just be like that.
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