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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
i grabbed at the dip: 9/17 +p640/-p675Well, looking at how SP was falling this a.m. I decided 710 might be in play and rolled these into lower strikes.
-100x bps 9/17 690/685 @0.85
-200x bps 9/24 690/680 @2.65
Prices were all over the place while I was scrambling to put the trades in and close old position, but got about $5k credit from this and will make me sleep better.
Too bad I didn't follow my suggestion to wait until this week to see what MM will be up to instead of selling puts last week
Anything at the dip without a prior put position to manage should be great, I think.
llirk
Member
^ this.
We are not the only ones that take 80% or 90% profits and then reestablish our positions.
Well I was expecting a pop today but I'll take what I can get.
STO 160 x 685/710 780/810 IC's @ $4.25-$6.05 before the bottom so left plenty on the table, in and out of green now.
STO 140 x 675/700 780/810 @$4.25-$4.85 a bit later.
STO 50 x 670/700 BPS @$5.65 after the dip as a shorter term play, looking strongly green.
STO 3 x 670/695 780/810 IC $5.75 for one of my sons right at the bottom - he gets all the luck.
STO 160 x 685/710 780/810 IC's @ $4.25-$6.05 before the bottom so left plenty on the table, in and out of green now.
STO 140 x 675/700 780/810 @$4.25-$4.85 a bit later.
STO 50 x 670/700 BPS @$5.65 after the dip as a shorter term play, looking strongly green.
STO 3 x 670/695 780/810 IC $5.75 for one of my sons right at the bottom - he gets all the luck.
I flipped some $750CC today for like 15-20% profit. Just enough to buy myself some beer. Happy Monday!
Decided not to wait until Friday, closed the last 1/3 at $1.60 to be clear to STO some 0924 once SP recovers to ~$740 -- probably a ladder of thirds at ~$770/$780/$790. Going to mull over whether to try the Fri/Mon gambit again this week -- seems like I win if it works 50% of the time, and possibly this week was an anomaly.
- GTC order to BTC 2/3 of my $765 position at $2 for a $7 profit -- hit.
- Will let the rest expire or close lower on Friday.
- Friday BTO at $760 for a Monday AM pop didn't work this week (bought too early, and Elon email plus noise seems to have overwhelmed FSDv10 news).
How i fixed my 9/17 IC +p680/-p720/-c800/+c840 when it went ITM during today's absurd manipulation to steal the 710 stop losses:
BTC the -c800/+c840; the quick drop meant buyback was suddenly cheap due to far OTM.
Roll the +p680/-p720 to 9/24 with credit (and new position is now up 16%).
STO 9/17 +p640/-p675 to refund me all of today's commissions/fees.
Overall $17k credit means no more IC panic during this week's sp uncertainty, and increased margin room to help out in case there's another dip.
BTC the -c800/+c840; the quick drop meant buyback was suddenly cheap due to far OTM.
Roll the +p680/-p720 to 9/24 with credit (and new position is now up 16%).
STO 9/17 +p640/-p675 to refund me all of today's commissions/fees.
Overall $17k credit means no more IC panic during this week's sp uncertainty, and increased margin room to help out in case there's another dip.
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I also closed out the call side of my IC's for both this week and next for 95% on that side.
Still sitting with -
09/17 - -$650 / +$630 P
09/24 - -$695 / +$675 P
Will be looking to sell the call sides again if we go back green at some point this week.
I BTC all but 10x $720 9/17 as these are in a Roth.
Looking for an entry point now for puts
Looking for an entry point now for puts
I haven't looked at any videos or read any of the feedback on v10. This is the first I've seen. Even if it had been outstandingly good though, this is one of two technologies that I consider inevitable AND to have gone through so many schedule / time estimate revisions that I've gone into "I believe it when I see it in 'production'" mode.
For v10 or city NOA, I believe it's 'production' when it gets downloaded to my car. Sidebar - this is why you own and drive a Tesla as part of your investment hypothesis. The stuff isn't theoretical that way. My car is capable but I have approximately zero special access to new updates. If anything I'm on the latter end - we just got the update that provides the Hulu app for instance.
It still won't be ready for anything resembling robotaxi / AMaaS, but my getting it will be a really strong signpost along the way. The thing about this technology, and neural nets more broadly, is that progress is amazingly non-linear.
As a former data scientist I've worked on vaguely similar problems (I was in text analytics), but they share some high level characteristics. This doesn't make me an expert on this problem - this gives me a passing awareness of the specific skill set and problems involved, or more educated than the average kangaroo.
One problem is an amazingly large amount of time and work to setup the data / workflow. Amazingly large can easily be measured in years, and it pretty much has to be reasonably complete before significant modeling can occur. The other is that the 'early' modeling typically look pretty crappy, but if the problem is actually solvable, then you get some early signs of life that it is solvable, and you improve the models (we're well past signs of life stage - we're all using at least Autopilot out on the freeway and loving how easy it makes driving long distances; you do drive a Tesla don't you?).
Model improvement frequently requires changing the data and workflow (remember when they removed radar, and when they transformed the slide show model into a fully formed 3D model?). Those updates to the data and workflow can (bad case) mean starting over on the workflow, with new multi-year delays on these really big and hard to solve problems. Clearly the data and workflow didn't increase by years, but it still means delays. It might also mean nearly starting over on the modeling (ask me how I know).
And then - magic. It starts working most of the time, and then quickly improves to working well. My own mental model is the old quote "it only took 10 years to be an overnight success". I expect a similar dynamic here.
The problem is that Elon keeps talking about the overnight success happening in a week or a month, and has been for 6 months? 12 months? It might be another year or 3 - and it might be later this month. The point being - I ignore it except to track how the regular schedule disappointment holds back the shares. And then of course it'll be wonderful, the size of the lead will look ginormous, and it'll be hugely valuable.
The other technology are the 4680 cells. Again I consider these inevitable, but what I see in actual public information, is a technology that is vitally important, and is somewhere between 6 and 18 months 'late'. Until I see these being used in a production product, even a relatively low volume production product such as Plaid Model S and Roadster (I'd love to see it in Model X, but I consider this to be higher volume than Model S), it's a pathfinding and development project. Meaning that the R&D is done and it works in a lab - now its being scaled up for economical volume manufacturing. I've personally seen these difficult transitions into economical volume manufacturing take multiple years (see Intel and production 10nm manufacturing), with the people working directly on the problem constantly feeling they are a week or a month away from adequate yield, and it just keeps slipping away from them.
I have no idea what's going on, but the dynamic here is pretty much the same as FSD v10 above. Too much talk about how cool it is and how soon it is - too many schedule delays.
To be clear - I am fully aware of Elon Time and explain it to others on a regular basis. Elon Time is the dynamic where short term prognostications happen much later than he thinks reasonable. That leads to disappointment by many investors, ridicule by many in the press, and distrust of Elon in particular that don't understand Elon Time.
AND Elon Time includes doing the impossible, routinely, on a ridiculously fast cadence and schedule. Thereby creating new technologies that nobody in the world can match. Examples - landing an orbital class booster for reuse; original Roadster; Model S; Model 3 (X and Y are more derivative than not, so I don't count them); the current FSD we use and enjoy (you ARE driving a Tesla as part of your investment thesis, aren't you!?!?). I bet y'all can find more examples.
That's why I say that these two technologies (in my eyes) are inevitable. It's just that I no longer put any stock on an actual schedule - they've slipped too many times (more than other technologies from Tesla I've followed over the last 9 years).
This all ties back to our very short term focus here. The only thing I expect to move the shares in the very short term are delays and disappointment from those delays. Once they show up publicly their initial impact will be nearly non-existent (except possibly irrational exuberance) as initial public visibility will still be a year+ away from actual measurable financial impact in the quarterly results.
NOT-ADVICE of course.
And EDIT: I pulled this apart from my previous post as they're too different, and WAY too big
An observation I have about max pain and the put/call walls. The monthly expirations, such as this week, , behave differently than other weeks in some ways, and the same way in others.
The different ways is that there is a LOT more $ on the line this week. When I looked at this when the shares were 750ish last week with max pain at $690, the MM were looking at $2.4B payout versus max pain payout around $1.6B ($800M difference is what I remember clearly - the other numbers are intentionally imprecise
).The 6/10 expiration had a fraction of that. 9/24 has a max pain of 735 right now, with $50 away from the strike (785 strike) representing $116M payout vs. the 735 payout of $73M. Right now, next week has $60M on the table. Max pain exerts a LOT more gravitational pull during monthly, and especially quarterly, expirations. And we see how strong of a pull the weeklies have when volume is low.
This is how the monthly and quarterlies are different - so VERY much more $ on the line.
They are more the same than not though, in that max pain has little influence the week before expiration. Especially the weeklies - any put / call walls that accumulate trivial in size to what builds during the week of expiration. For 9/24 expiration there is an unusually big put wall at the 700 strike with .. 16k contracts. I say unusual as I rarely see >10k the week before. The big call wall is at 800 strike and is .. 2.7k contracts.
So I say that to say two things. Monthly and more so quarterly expirations - bigger contract counts, bigger contract accumulation prior to the week of expiration, and thus bigger impact.
Be very cautious using the max pain / put wall / call wall / OI / etc.. information before the week of expiration. The numbers are trivial compared to what will happen the week of expiration (I personally ignore the info, and mostly still ignore it on Monday).
Wasn't that entertaining - my -720p BPS are green by 0.10 after being red by a few $$ earlier in the morning. Apparently writing long posts can be a money maker as well!
Hey Yoona - I haven't looked closely - is there a way to get Swaggy to only show the Friday expirations on that chart you screenshot for us earlier? Or maybe Thursday and Friday (I don't expect this latter feature).i only grabbed the screenshot from
Options Max Pain - Calculations for SPY
Our Max Pain calculator displays the aggregate nominal value of options premium expiring at each strike price, for each expiration.swaggystocks.com
I consider historical max pain information to be roughly useless. Or at least it's very hard to pull out the Friday expirations when max pain has the very largest impact. I can use the max pain information earlier in the week particularly well when I have insight to how well it'll work out, but I also consider the max pain during the week to have a pretty weak gravitational pull.
That's great stuff - I've added that site to my other max pain site to keep an eye on this stuff.
EDIT: Nevermind! I see - the expiration days get a circle on the historical max pain / stock price chart.
Never mind - I see what I'm looking for. The Friday expirations get a circle on the larger chart. That works for me!
I've been thinking more about Bull put spreads, which have been my major instrument for income generation now.. right now I have a bunch of -p700/+p650 open for this friday. Position was first opened last friday at the end of day dip, and today during morning dip I added some more.
I've been thinking about spread width, risk, leverage, strikes.
This is just an example to cite discussion, I'm looking at the option chain right now, tsla is about 730.
Lets see..
so
10x -p700/+p650 at $3,50 will give credit of $3500, and reserves 45k margin. Max loss is 42k, breakeven at 696.
on the other hand
5x -p720/+p620 at $7,20, nets credit $3315, reserves about the same, 46k margin. Breakeven is 713.
Which one do you consider riskier? What would you do?
I've been thinking about spread width, risk, leverage, strikes.
This is just an example to cite discussion, I'm looking at the option chain right now, tsla is about 730.
Lets see..
so
10x -p700/+p650 at $3,50 will give credit of $3500, and reserves 45k margin. Max loss is 42k, breakeven at 696.
on the other hand
5x -p720/+p620 at $7,20, nets credit $3315, reserves about the same, 46k margin. Breakeven is 713.
Which one do you consider riskier? What would you do?
InTheShadows
Active Member
Anyone selling calls yet? I rolled about 1/3 of my put spreads to next week when they hit their atm short prices this am. 715’s and 720’s. I only did this with the ones that had a spread of <$50. I didn’t think I would have to do it but I did it to get accustomed to the mechanics of them. All 3 sets I sold for more credit than the original premium I had collected Wednesday when I first sold them. Their % losses (for that series since now it’s in trade management mode) also about halved when I rolled them. Will be watching them compared to the ones I didn’t roll throughout the week.
With no short calls and 1/3 put spreads rolled to next week I doubt I will hit my target this week.
With no short calls and 1/3 put spreads rolled to next week I doubt I will hit my target this week.
That is one helluva hammer on the daily chart right now - wow! My choice to sell puts expiring 9/17 on Thursday sure did age like milk, but I'm still confident they'll end up expiring worthless. I then compounded my poor decision by opening some bear call spreads this morning, but I at least left open the possibility of selling some covered calls into strength if we break $750.
My current positions:
STO 9/17 $730p @ ~$7.60
STO 9/17 $690p @ ~$7.00
STO 9/17 $760c/$810c @ $1.70
STO 9/17 $780c/$830c @ $1.05
I think the takeaway here is, don't follow my trades. I'm generally pretty good on collecting all of the sold premium, but my timing is terrible. ;-)
My current positions:
STO 9/17 $730p @ ~$7.60
STO 9/17 $690p @ ~$7.00
STO 9/17 $760c/$810c @ $1.70
STO 9/17 $780c/$830c @ $1.05
I think the takeaway here is, don't follow my trades. I'm generally pretty good on collecting all of the sold premium, but my timing is terrible. ;-)
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I'm eyeing them, but haven't started selling any. IV is still low on the calls for Friday. Would like to see more of an upward pop with better IV before opening those potision.
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