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I am sitting here with 5 months to go before my RHD P85D arrives. So I say bring on the P1XXD, Mr Musk. I will cancel and re-order in a second. It may take a little longer to come but time has shown that we English/Australian/Hong Kong men/women are patient.
But somehow I know it ain't gonna happen and this thread's intention is purely to wind a few people up. Gentleman, enjoy your cars. You are incredibly lucky to have them.
But somehow I know it ain't gonna happen and this thread's intention is purely to wind a few people up. Gentleman, enjoy your cars. You are incredibly lucky to have them.
What this guy said. I don't even like realtors but this one seems to articulate my thoughts well on more than one occasion.
If a P105D comes out.......................................... I'd probably trade in the P85D, not going to lie. lol. I'd be a tad annoyed about it being so soon, and before I even got autopilot functionality I paid for in the P85D, but, whatever. Such is life. 
That said, I'd be willing to bet that there is not a P105D (or any other Model with a higher capacity battery) coming out on April 30th. I'd be willing to bet we don't see > 85kWh before the gigafactory. Also, it was said that it's not a car.
I might bet that there could be a significant performance improving update coming for the P85D, though, given that no one has seen power draw near the 691 HP number yet. It would be interesting if such an update ended up not being free and were something like a $2000 activation thing, though. They'd make a fortune since I'm not sure any P85D owner wouldn't do it.
My guess on the 30th will be the stationary storage battery.
That said, I'd be willing to bet that there is not a P105D (or any other Model with a higher capacity battery) coming out on April 30th. I'd be willing to bet we don't see > 85kWh before the gigafactory. Also, it was said that it's not a car.
I might bet that there could be a significant performance improving update coming for the P85D, though, given that no one has seen power draw near the 691 HP number yet. It would be interesting if such an update ended up not being free and were something like a $2000 activation thing, though. They'd make a fortune since I'm not sure any P85D owner wouldn't do it.
My guess on the 30th will be the stationary storage battery.
MarkS22
Member
The home battery is clearly the main focus, but I think we'll see an announcement for a 2.8 second 0-60 P85D.
Forget about all the other speculation and look at the context of the Twitter exchange. Zedd just got a new Tesla, presumably a P85D because he specifically says "3.1 is fast enough for me." To which Elon responds "2.8s is amazing. Sure'd be great if Model S could get there. Maybe it can." Followed by "Maybe a good warm up act for April 30 event." I mean, it's all there. No need to over-think it. Why would Elon publicly engage a brand new (famous) P85D owner with that specific wording if it wasn't going be apply to Zedd's P85D? To tease him that in 30 days, his car will be "replaced?"
Combine that with the recent OTA spec increase on the 85D and it makes sense the P85D could see an OTA upgrade to justify the price difference. If I had to guess, it would might similarly to the new 155mph "passing mode" where you'd be limited in how often you can do the 2.8 0-60 launches. Like some sort of cool-down timer.
Forget about all the other speculation and look at the context of the Twitter exchange. Zedd just got a new Tesla, presumably a P85D because he specifically says "3.1 is fast enough for me." To which Elon responds "2.8s is amazing. Sure'd be great if Model S could get there. Maybe it can." Followed by "Maybe a good warm up act for April 30 event." I mean, it's all there. No need to over-think it. Why would Elon publicly engage a brand new (famous) P85D owner with that specific wording if it wasn't going be apply to Zedd's P85D? To tease him that in 30 days, his car will be "replaced?"
Combine that with the recent OTA spec increase on the 85D and it makes sense the P85D could see an OTA upgrade to justify the price difference. If I had to guess, it would might similarly to the new 155mph "passing mode" where you'd be limited in how often you can do the 2.8 0-60 launches. Like some sort of cool-down timer.
Exactly. Well put.
I don't know why @kris is thinking there will be a new model this soon, clearly with the 85D update, and the fact that the P85D is not putting down nearly as much as advertised, the update will likely happen soon. Also, it was promised on the website along with the 155mph limit: we got the speed limit increase, but the power increase will follow IMO.
Yes, a 100kwh+ battery is coming at some point, but not for Model S for at least a year after P85D unveiling.
I don't know why @kris is thinking there will be a new model this soon, clearly with the 85D update, and the fact that the P85D is not putting down nearly as much as advertised, the update will likely happen soon. Also, it was promised on the website along with the 155mph limit: we got the speed limit increase, but the power increase will follow IMO.
Yes, a 100kwh+ battery is coming at some point, but not for Model S for at least a year after P85D unveiling.
If if I told you a couple of weeks ago that the 60kW model was going to be instantly discontinued and replaced with a larger battery and better performing 70D model, you wouldn't have believed me and would have said another model wasn't coming for a while. Guess we'll wait and see.
The 100 kWh part is not happening, but I wouldn't discount the possibility of a firmware upgrade.
Tesla confirmed via Greencarrepports that the 70D uses more cells, not higher density ones.
2015 Tesla Model S 70D: First Drive Of New Electric Car Base Model (Page 3)
Tesla confirmed via Greencarrepports that the 70D uses more cells, not higher density ones.
2015 Tesla Model S 70D: First Drive Of New Electric Car Base Model (Page 3)
Not the same. I would have given that theory some consideration, given that the 60kWh has been around for 2.5 years and sales are very low.
P85D has been around for 5 months, and sells very well. There is no need to put out an upgrade this soon.
I'm not suggesting Tesla isn't capable or willing to make changes to their lineup unannounced, what I'm saying is that they won't purposefully come out with a new model to replace the P85D so soon. I'd say earliest time for P100D is Dec. 2015.
Facts:
1) Tesla advertises 691hp.
2) Tesla isn't delivering 691hp (or anywhere close).
3) Tesla promised power update for P85D specifically ("beyond what anyone outside of Tesla has experienced")
4) Tesla has a record of increasing hp limits using software update (85D, P85).
Conclusion:
Tesla will increase hp limit of P85D just like they did to the 85D.
Which theory is more likely in your view?
Much as I'd like to see a bump in output for the P85D, I'm suspicious that we won't. There are a few reasons why I think this:
1. Technically the car is already 691hp (470 + 221). It may not deliver that but that's also true for every ICE car out there. The advertised HP is usually a technicality and never what hits the ground.
2. At 3.1 seconds it already delivers on-par with what most any 700-ish hp rated car would deliver.
3. With the 85D, they bumped the new small motors from 188 (I think) to 221 by pushing a bit closer to design limits. The front motor in the P85D is already at 221 so they've already pushed that motor. There's nothing much to improve here I expect.
4. The motor in the back is the old P85 motor which was once rated at less that 470 (420ish I think??). They've been playing with this motor/gearbox for 3 years already. I doubt that there's much more to get out of this one.
5. There's speculation that the whole system is battery limited. If so then motor/gearbox is irrelevant. And I doubt that there's a whole lot extra juice in the battery to pull out.
6. The fact that they could only go to 155 MPH for a short period implies that they're concerned about overheat - either in the battery or the motor. If they're releasing updates that have these sorts of time limitations then they're already playing around darn close to the physical limits of the equipment.
And finally.... the 2.8 from Elon's tweet was pretty loose/speculative. I suspect that the car CAN do 2.8 or possibly better. But when you push batteries or machines too hard you start to bump into longevity/fatigue problems. So maybe they can get 2.8 or even better. But that doesn't mean that it's possible to put that capability into a production car that has to last years and several hundred thousand km.
I hope to be proven wrong!
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Sorry to be bearer of bad news.. but GCR reports the 70D is because of more batteries and not new cells, unfortunately. Makes a battery greater than 85 kW less likely for the near future 2015 Tesla Model S 70D: First Drive Of New Electric Car Base Model (Page 3)
Honestly, as a P85D owner, I really hope what you say here is correct and I am dead wrong, because this is what I hope happens. Unfortunately, I just feel it can't be done without a larger battery.
The difference between what the P85D is pulling from the battery now (estimated ~410kW?) vs what it would need for 691 HP (~515kW) is ~4.83C vs 6.0C.
Except from my other thread (bolds/underline/italics added for relevancy):
So, IMO it's definitely possible to pull the full amount from the existing battery in short bursts. Tesla would certainly be able to narrow down what a safe short burst would be. They don't have to use a 25% safety margin, which I arbitrarily chose for my above write-up, giving even more potential power.
Most of the focus here has been on the P85D and why we won't be seeing a new battery because the P85D doesn't need it. What about the Model X? I wasn't suspecting a new battery soon so the P85D drivers can squeeze another 3/10's off their 0-60 times. I was thinking more in terms of the range of Model X. And if the Model X gets a larger battery capacity, so likely will the S.
You are not the guy I'm going to take on with a bet about batteries! In your opinion will they be able to get 270 mile range out of the X to match that of the S85D?
Since the X is basically a Model S with a new upper body, interior, etc.... I don't see why the specs would differ much aside from probably slightly worse aerodynamics. I'd expect to see an EPA rating of 260+ for an X S85D.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
That need not be a new car. We've seen performance improvements on existing cars already through software updates. Perhaps there's more.
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