You make a good point about inflation. I probably should have said "today's dollars". Regardless, I'll stand by what I said.
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To get the thread back on topic: I expect the April 30th event to only be about home battery packs. No mention of Tesla vehicles at all. Although I allow that there could a tie in that the home battery packs will be made partially from reclaimed/refurbished auto battery units. Just because a entire 85 pack doesn't work in a car any more (for whatever reason) doesn't mean parts of it couldn't work just fine when rebuilt into a home pack. I expect it to be 10-20KW similar to what is already known to be under testing in the wild. Expansion into home inverters etc probably as well. As more and more people add solar to their roof, why not buy equipment from a known brand like Tesla.
Batteries will be a huge part of the business (more then cars) in 10 years.
Batteries will be a huge part of the business (more then cars) in 10 years.
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deonb
Active Member
That's not the topic of this thread. (I complained about the confusing title before). Please re-read the first post.
I think people are commenting on the title without reading the original post. Kind of reminds me of headlines/subjects posted on Facebook, and people commenting before even clicking/reading the article.
You said: "The "warm up act" may even just be him demonstrating the actual 2.8s launch and then saying more details will be later on the battery upgrade."
That's a pre-announcement and would dry up sales.
True, I was just thinking out loud. But really, look how they handled the 70D announcement with no regard of existing S60 orders- same deal, I don't think it matters to them really, they'll sell everything they can make regardless.
Krugerrand
Meow
The difference is that nobody is going to hold off on an order based on the 70D announcement. If they say vaguely, "hey we're gonna update the battery sometime soon!" I'd bet reservations plummet until the announcement. The Tesla M.O. seems to be "new car, order now!" without regard to previous orders. On the one hand, annoying! On the other, it keeps demand high because there's never a model year pause or runup to expected refresh. You never know what's coming! Ugh.
I believe you are correct. They will make the announcement when the update is available to order, whatever it is. A bigger batter is coming. The question is when. To me it seems likely that Model X reveal will be when we'll see a bigger battery. As I said before, quoting many who said it before me, it doesn't seem likely that the X will be released with a lower mileage cap than the current S.
People can talk about why they would or wouldn't come out with a new battery soon because the P85D this or the P85D that, but it's not about the P85D. It's about the Model X. That's what will drive the introduction of a larger battery. IMHO, of course.
And, the OP has his units mixed up in the title and the OP.
kW and kWh are very different metrics. It's the same as confusing gallons with horsepower. Think of kW = horsepower, kWh = gallons.
(BTW, 1 hp = ~0.746 kW. And, Compare Electric Vehicles says 1 gallon of gasoline=33.7 kWh.)
I don't believe there are secret 100s out there, but here's why I think the 70D may have been rolled out by itself, with an 85 kWh replacement delayed a few months:
The 60 kWh version of the car was a small fraction of Model S orders (IIRC Tesla has said 10% or less, Consumer Reports said 2%). Thus, the introduction of the 70D as a 60 replacement was going to ruffle the feathers of a rather small group (compared to 85s) of new owners and those with cars in the process of being built and shipped. With planning Tesla could have minimized that further by timing the 70D introduction to coincide with a time 85, 85D and P85D comprised all of recent and current production (i.e. a time they'd not produced 60s for a couple of months, so very few would have just gotten one delivered).
Similarly, it's possible that Tesla is building it's order book of 70Ds now so that if/when a larger battery replaces the various 85s, they can be in a period of predominantly 70D production and cars in transit. For example, if a larger battery is introduced on June 30th (available for order, or change in reservation that day), and Tesla has 6 weeks (~6K) worth of 70D orders to fill, they could have shut down production of 85s 6 weeks earlier in Mid-May in favor of strictly producing 70Ds, so essentially no 85s are in production when a bigger battery is introduced, and as small a number as possible are in transit. This would minimize abandoned/refused 85s, and somewhat minimize the amount of people who would have gotten their new 85s within a few weeks of such a potential new battery introduction. Moreover, those who did recently take delivery of any type of 85 would not be so shocked (and hopefully somewhat less irritated) to hear of a 100 or 105 kWh version coming out given that the 70D rolled out 3 months earlier.
As others have written here, I doubt Tesla will announce a larger pack than the 85s for the S, until they are ready to start making them. I doubt that this will be so in the next couple of weeks, but I'm cautiously optimistic for something this summer (I agree with others that the Model X is very likely to have a bigger pack, and we expect to hear X details by some point in the summer).
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If you guys don't think there will be a larger battery pack version of the MS announced as a warm up to the 4/30 event, then tell me this- what's your opinion/theory about what Elon meant about a "2.8s Model S being a possibly warm up act to the April 30th event" ?
does this mean you think the P85D is capable of 0-60 in 2.8s with a simple software update then, just days after the 3.1 update? Clearly if you don't think there will be a battery pack update then what do you think he meant and what could the "warm act up to the 4/30 event" mean?
to get the car down to 2.8s from 3.1 is a huge difference. It would take much more power and even possibly a better wheel / tire combo.
if not a bigger battery pack, how about a P85D+ upgrade package. Maybe it comes with a modded inverter and/or better suspension and wheel/tire setup. That's the only thing other than a new battery pack that could get it to 2.8s IMO, and announcing a "+" option to the current P85D is a real possibility other than a newer, larger battery.
does this mean you think the P85D is capable of 0-60 in 2.8s with a simple software update then, just days after the 3.1 update? Clearly if you don't think there will be a battery pack update then what do you think he meant and what could the "warm act up to the 4/30 event" mean?
to get the car down to 2.8s from 3.1 is a huge difference. It would take much more power and even possibly a better wheel / tire combo.
if not a bigger battery pack, how about a P85D+ upgrade package. Maybe it comes with a modded inverter and/or better suspension and wheel/tire setup. That's the only thing other than a new battery pack that could get it to 2.8s IMO, and announcing a "+" option to the current P85D is a real possibility other than a newer, larger battery.
Well, Elon has a habit of saying all kinds of things.... Sometimes as a prod to engineering.
I do think there's some chance the P85D could get to 2.8s via a software update. If that's not possible, yes, it would seem a bigger battery coming soon is tipped off by the tweet. Either way, Elon may have jumped ahead of Tesla Motors by writing that tweet. Wasn't it removed? It may be that 4/30 was within the timeframe that was possible for it to happen with the existing or a new battery, but it was not a timeframe TM was ready to commit to, and someone convinced Elon of this which prompted him to delete the tweet.
Ok, I'll buy that- as Elon has a habit of speaking out loud and tweeting it, just to remove it later. I hope there's something that addresses the 2.8s claim.
As someone who is about to buy a P85D, I really am irked by this entire thing.
If 2.8 is possible with just a bigger battery, cool. But I have a feeling that it's going to require beefier wiring and all kind of other small things. It makes me really anxious to order, but I need to order soon because of the sales tax exemption.
Sucks. This should be incredibly exciting, but I keep being nagged by the thought that I "barely" miss the cutoff. 120k is a LOT of money to me, but coming from a P85, I literally can't drive anything else, and I need a car to replace my wrecked Tesla
There's a huge difference knowing that in a few years I can upgrade to a 100 KW battery, versus just missing out altogether. The appeal of the Model S has always been the "constant improvements" of the car that I can take advantage of, but thus far nothing has really been further from the truth.
If 2.8 is possible with just a bigger battery, cool. But I have a feeling that it's going to require beefier wiring and all kind of other small things. It makes me really anxious to order, but I need to order soon because of the sales tax exemption.
Sucks. This should be incredibly exciting, but I keep being nagged by the thought that I "barely" miss the cutoff. 120k is a LOT of money to me, but coming from a P85, I literally can't drive anything else, and I need a car to replace my wrecked Tesla
There's a huge difference knowing that in a few years I can upgrade to a 100 KW battery, versus just missing out altogether. The appeal of the Model S has always been the "constant improvements" of the car that I can take advantage of, but thus far nothing has really been further from the truth.
Andyw2100
Well-Known Member
I think MarkS22 made great points in this post: April 30th Event SPECULATION: 100kWh Battery + 2.8s 0-60 Model S to be announced? - Page 5
He wrote:
I agree with that--specifically the part about what Musk tweeted to Zedd, and that he wouldn't have been talking about the model, but rather the car Zedd just bought.
There's going to be a larger battery available at some point, but I don't think it's going to be necessary to get to the 2.8 second 0-60 time Musk tweeted about.
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