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Are 75 going to be replaced by 80?

Discussion in 'Model X' started by vigge50, Jun 8, 2017.

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  1. vigge50

    vigge50 Member

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    I just read on the Swedish Tesla forum that someone who had been in one of the stores had been told that the 75 kWh battery is on it's way out and that it will be replaced by 80 kWh battery. He wasn't told anything about the timeline so it could be tomorrow as they take away 90 kWh battery or it will be later this year when 2170 batteries starts to come to Model S and Model X.

    This also maid me think about the 2170 cells, as I remember it was going to start deliver to Model S and X 6-9 month after the production had started but then I started to search after the article I found that I remember wrong, this Electrek write last July.

    Tesla’s plan for Gigafactory vehicle battery pack rollout and why it matters

    This should mean that Tesla have already started to test 2170 cells in Model S and Model X if they manage to keep there timeline and maybe soon is ready to start selling them with 2170 cells.

    Of course this is speculation and I won't take it for granted until I see it in the design studio, the people at Tesla stores have been misinform before.
     
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  2. Peteybabes

    Peteybabes redneck drivin' a tesla...

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    that would be nice, but wouldn't elon/tesla be more focused on 2170's for the Model 3 right now?
     
  3. vigge50

    vigge50 Member

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    It depends on the production, if they can ramp up the production of 2170 cells faster then Model 3 and Tesla energy need then they can use them for Model S and Model X. Then they also need to keep demand up for Model S and X while they start to go throw the long list of reservation holders for Model 3. The move to drop the price of Model S 75 so mush for some time ago could probably have maid some go for a Model S instead and if they now upgrade to 80 kWh without higher the price they can get even more sales now instead of later.
     
  4. hmmm

    hmmm Member

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    I wonder if this could mean a 80 upgradable to 100, a la 60 to 75?
     
  5. dragonxt

    dragonxt Active Member

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    #5 dragonxt, Jun 8, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2017
    My car is going into production very soon, I hope we don't miss this! What's the link to this thread in the swedish forum?

    (Also, 100th post)

    I hope that would be the case, but 20 kwh seems like a big gap.
     
  6. boofagle

    boofagle Member

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    I was thinking about the 2170s being introduced when they take away the 90s but if there's some big advantage (weight reduction=longer distance or faster charging) I would've expected Elon to talk about it at the shareholder meeting and then have the config with the new cells go live that day. Even if there is no real benefit other than a better chemistry I would've thought he would've at least brought it up if its available 3 days after the meeting. Who doesn't love more anti-selling of model 3!?
     
  7. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    #7 Troy, Jun 8, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2017
    It makes perfect sense to replace the 75 kWh pack with an 80 kWh when the Model S and X switch to 2170 cells. They are going to redesign the entire pack anyway. They might as well pick a capacity that makes more sense. Why? The Model S 75D has 259 miles rated range. The Model 3 75D is expected to have 297 miles rated range based on my calculation (***). Because both cars have the exact same battery capacity, this re-emphasises that the Model 3 is more efficient and it encourages comparisons between the two cars. This is not very good because the Model 3 75D has 15% more range, is 15% more efficient, costs 15% less to charge and supercharge sessions will take 15% less time etc etc.

    Interestingly, the new 80 kWh pack should have about the same capacity as the 85 kWh pack from 2012, 2013 and 2014 because Tesla has switched to a more honest advertisement method in recent years. The 85 had 81.5 kWh actual capacity (*). They should have called it 80 kWh. When Model S was released in 2012, they had the 40, the 60 and they should have the 80 but I guess overly-optimistic advertisement was more popular at that time at Tesla so they called it an 85.

    But they don't do this anymore. The 75 kWh has exactly 75.0 kWh actual capacity (*) and the 100 kWh pack has 102.4 kWh (**). Of course what this means is, the new Model S 80D will have more range than the Model S 85D because the new packs will also weigh less because the 2170 cells are expected have a different chemistry with higher energy density. My best guess is 278 mi EPA rated range for the Model S 80D.

    (*) Click here for source.
    (**) Click here for source.
    (***) See cell AF18 here.
     
  8. vandacca

    vandacca ReActive Member

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    You assume that the 2170 batteries in the Model-3 will charge at the same rate as the 18650. I'm predicting Elon to announce V3 Supercharging at the end of September, which is expected to double the charging speed. You read it here first. :)
     
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  9. vigge50

    vigge50 Member

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    I don't think so, the 60 was a big mistake from Tesla where they didn't get paid for the extra battery that they sensed with a lot of cars. Sure, a lot of buyers bought it then they lower the price but I believe that was lower then the extra cost.

    TeslaClubSweden.se • Visa tråd - 75 blir 80?

    V3 supercharger in September would be nice and it would fit well with the Semi as it really need to have higher charging rates for a semi truck. To make sure that they don't get a lot of cancellations it would be good if they start to deliver cars with the new battery pack before the event.
     
  10. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    The software limited batteries were a demand lever. Tesla needed to keep selling cars and Model S was no longer moving at the speed they needed.

    I agree its return is unlikely, unless there is some demand disaster again.
     
  11. David99

    David99 Active Member

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    It doesn't matter in what car the new cells go. They are better and cheaper to make and help make Tesla more profit. Tesla needs to make the Model S/X more competitive or else the sales will drop dramatically. They won't have their top model cars running with the old cells while the Model 3 has better batteries.
     
  12. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    I guess ramp-up and transition could be an issue, though. There might be a period of certain number of months that Tesla can't transition S/X to 2170's. For example commitments to buy old cells?

    In that sense bringing back the old 85 kWh battery (or a slightly tuned variant) as 80 kWh to liven up the low-end of S/X might be possible too. It would separate the S/X Standard from the Model 3 Premium while 2170's are still going to Model 3 only.

    Just speculating.

    Of course if the transition to 2170's is quicker than this, then all bets are off.
     
  13. Peteybabes

    Peteybabes redneck drivin' a tesla...

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    this is eminent as the model 3 has 4 modules while the model s has 16!!! my guess is that the new model S battery packs will have between 6-10 modules depending on capacity...
     
  14. David99

    David99 Active Member

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    Tesla has been planning the new cell production for many years now with Panasonic as a partner. It's not a sudden change. They are moving to the new cells together.
     
  15. MostlyStock

    MostlyStock Member

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    The Model 3 unveil event shows 8 modules at 9:52. Where are you getting 4 modules from?
     
  16. Peteybabes

    Peteybabes redneck drivin' a tesla...

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    wow, i'm almost certain i had seen something recently that mentioned only 4 modules...hmmm.

    i guess we can see if it stays at 8 or if they're able to make them even more compact?
     
  17. Peteybabes

    Peteybabes redneck drivin' a tesla...

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  18. PJFW8

    PJFW8 waiting impatiently for Model 3

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    I agree, but there may be another possibility. Consider that the 80kWh S and 75kWh 3 might have essentially the same pack, say 78 kWh, underrated (not software limited) for the 3 and "rounded up" for the S and X.
     
  19. Peteybabes

    Peteybabes redneck drivin' a tesla...

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  20. vandacca

    vandacca ReActive Member

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    Elon Musk has contradicted what he stated earlier at the last earnings call. He said they would roll out by end of year. IMO, what this means is that Tesla has not scheduled the 2170 cell roll-out yet, and they're not divulging any further information to reduce the risk customers delaying their order (Osbourne effect).
     
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