The math doesn't quite work out, though. You're spending $1500 on the second charger, $1200 on the HPWC, and hundreds on the upgraded wiring. I'll do you a favor and drop out the wiring upgrade cost.
First, let's look at the charging window of 4 hours. On a UMC, that will give you about 124 miles of charge. If you drive less than 120 miles a day and start charging at 1am, you'll be done by 5am even if using the UMC. So, on how many days a year do you drive more than 120 miles? If you're driving 120 miles every weekday, then you're already driving 21,000 miles a year. If you're not doing more than that, you're not saving any money.
Now, let's look at your potential savings. To maximize your savings, let's start with a high normal rate of $0.50/kWh. So, 76% of that is $0.38/kWh saved. You'll need to consume 7,105 kWh to pay for the $2700 additional cost. That's about 21,000 miles at 12.7 cents/mile saved. So not even 13 cents per mile for each mile over 120 that you drive in a single day.
QED
I created a speadsheet for this. Here are my real numbers-
My normal service costs $0.07934 for the the first 800 kWh. From June-September, it's $0.08039 per kWh over 800 kWh, and from October-May it's $0.05193 per kWh over 800. This is the fully loaded cost- it includes generation, transmission, and distribution. It doesn't include the monthly fee for the meter.
To simplify things, I'm going to use the >800 kWh number since I will easily hit that every month. Further, I'm going to calculate a blended cost per kWh- 4 months at 0.08039 and 8 months at 0.05193 works out to be exactly $0.06 per kWh. Under the EV plan, the fully loaded cost is $0.01690 per kWh between 1a-5a (they call this super off-peak). Off-peak and on-peak cost more. I'll get back to this in a minute. So the cost difference per kWh, standard rate vs super-peak is $0.04310, or 72% off (I earlier said 76% - I was using a non-blended cost for that calculation.)
I'm going to get twin chargers regardless if I do the HPWC for reasons earlier stated (road trips, resale, future). So we need to look at marginal cost- that is, the cost of just adding the HPWC and the wiring to support it. The charger is $1,200. I don't yet know what the wiring/electrician costs are. For the sake of conversation, let's go high and say $1k, which gives me a total marginal cost of $2,200 to support fast charging.
$2200 / $0.04310 = 51,044 kWh needed to break-even. So here is where my knowledge starts to fall off. How much power does it take to fully charge the car? There is heat and other loss, but I don't know the efficiency. Does it take 90kWh to fully charge a 85kWh battery? And there is the fact that most of the time I won't be charging the battery from empty. If I assume 5% loss it should take 89.25 kWh to fully charge an 85 kWh battery. Let's also assume that the battery starts at 50% capacity on average. So we need to charge 42.5 kWh, which at a 5% loss takes 44.625 kWh.
51,044 / 44.625 = 1,143 charge cycles to break-even. Owch! If I've done this correctly, then the additional cost for the HPWC to try to optimize my rate by rapid charging between 1a-5a doesn't make sense for me. Assuming 6 cycles/week, that's 3.6 years. I do have the option of using the EV pricing plan and a NEMA 14-50. If I'm usually starting my charge at 50% capacity, then 4 hours of charge gets me ~90% full.
Ok, so after all that analysis recall I said I would get back to the super-off peak pricing that my utility provides. The downside to their plan is that if you charge outside of the super off-peak periods, they charge you MORE than the standard residential rate (in fact it's over double). I went as so far to think about installing two circuits to my garage; one on my regular panel which gets regular rates, and one behind the EV plan meter that gets the special discount, just to be able to charge during the day if I needed to without incurring the penalty.
So after all of this, I'm going to go with a 14-50 on my regular panel and not even bother with the EV pricing plan. Trying to optimize the cost break between 1a-5am just isn't worth the headache and the lack of convenience of being able to charge at any time. At a break-even of 3.6 years, assuming my analysis is sound, it might be worth it for some. Who knows what charging may look like in 3 years, or what other pricing plans the utilities will come out with as they measure the impact of EV's on the grid.
Comments welcome. I won't be offended if my math is wrong
Andrew