Are Supercharger stations close enough for Gen 3?

[Electroman]

Tesla said 300 miles range for the 'S' but it was clear to many even before the EPA numbers came out that the realistic on the road range would be around 250 in summer conditions.

We should expect the same here. Don't get me wrong, 150+ is an amazing range for any sub $40k EV and it is worth every penny and I wouldn't hesitate to buy it. But road tripping even with Superchargers every 50 miles is going to be hard.

 

[purplewalt]

Gen3 will have a range between 150 to 180 and no more. With that range no amount of Super charger density will make it a convenient long trip car.

A Dallas to Houston trip will take two 100% charging stops and that will burn around 2.5 hours.

Of course these are my speculation and I would love to be pleasantly surprised.

Two points you raise, I would like to address.

#1.
Elon stated 200 miles, not 150 to 180 (miles).
You (nor anyone else) do not know anything at this point in time about Gen 3's actual mileage range, so a little less (negative) speculation on that topic of range please.

#2.
I think your conjecture of 2.5 hours for two-stop Dallas to Houston trek is inaccurate.

First off, if you are driving effectively you will actually arrive quicker.
Driving within the legal speed limits is the first key.
In Long Distance Driving, driving faster does not always equate to one arriving quicker.
There are consequences to driving faster, one of the primary ones being faster depletion of the amount of stored energy.

Leg 1
It is ~51 miles to Corsicana from Dallas.
Most of the I-45 highway is posted @ 60 mph and 65 mph (and this road is frequently patrolled, --so you have been warned.)
Roughly the last 12 miles or so of that leg to Corsicana is posted @ 75 mph.
Less than one-hour (probably 30 minutes) charge time is required to replenish estimated 70 miles of charge, and you really don't need to completely fill-up, because Huntsville is so close.
During a journey, you only need to Recharge to a level that is effective, and then continue your journey.
The amount of time required to fully recharge is primarily to fill the last 20% battery capacity (which is much slower)---Do you actually need to be fully charged for the next leg of your journey?
In my view, you shouldn't need to be 100% full each and every time you charge with legs this short.

Leg 2:
It is 110 miles from Corsicana to Huntsville.
Most of that portion of I-45 is posted @ 75 mph.
Arrive in Huntsville, stop and re-charge, again to level that you feel comfortable.
But, this will take under an hour to recharge.

Total actual charging time would be much closer to 1.5 hours, possibly less (this is contingent on your driving speed and effective driving skills).

Leg 3:
Lastly, it is 70 miles from Huntsville to Houston.
Driving effectively, you can arrive and still have over 100 miles of charge in your vehicle.
Once you get to Conroe and The Woodlands, you be driving in some amount of slower speed traffic anyway.
Slower speed = closer actual range to stored charge.

Big Question: Will you be staying somewhere in Houston where you can get another charge? Or do you need to be able to return trip to Huntsville for your next charge?
With proper driving efficiencies and some pre-planning where your next charge will be, you can best use the fullest amount of your car's driving range.

 

[jeff_adams]

Gen3 will have a range between 150 to 180 and no more. With that range no amount of Super charger density will make it a convenient long trip car.

A Dallas to Houston trip will take two 100% charging stops and that will burn around 2.5 hours.

Of course these are my speculation and I would love to be pleasantly surprised.

I'm sure you will be wrong. Elon and company learned a lesson from the 40. A EV with under 200 mile range is not appealing to the masses.

 

[JRP3]

Will the G3 even need supercharging? With a 45-50kWh pack it wont be able to take anywhere near full SC output, unless future chemistry has higher charge rate capability. I am concerned with G3 cars clogging up SC's in the future, unless Tesla really intends to expand the network a lot more.

 

[N4HHE]

Plus Tesla wants to use super charging as grid storage, so it is essential to own this network. Also, Super chargers are a small capital investment. According to the Maryland permit, the approximate cost of a SC is 100K (without solar). Installing 300 SCs costs $30 million.

Is that $100k per site or per charging station? Am thinking its per charging station so 4 Supercharger plugs is a $400k site.

 

[scaesare]

Will the G3 even need supercharging? With a 45-50kWh pack it wont be able to take anywhere near full SC output, unless future chemistry has higher charge rate capability. I am concerned with G3 cars clogging up SC's in the future, unless Tesla really intends to expand the network a lot more.

Remember though, that charge rate is a function of time. A 40kWh Gen III car will still get an 80% charge in 40 minutes and be on his way.

Contrast that to Level II charging which is often only a 208V/30A J1772. That's only ~6kW... so you'd be looking at close to 6 hours...

 

[Joel]

Is that $100k per site or per charging station? Am thinking its per charging station so 4 Supercharger plugs is a $400k site.

It's $100K per site.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Will the G3 even need supercharging? With a 45-50kWh pack it wont be able to take anywhere near full SC output, unless future chemistry has higher charge rate capability. I am concerned with G3 cars clogging up SC's in the future, unless Tesla really intends to expand the network a lot more.

Capacity ~ Range ~ Charging Speed ~ Performance ~ 1/C rate. Tesla knows this and that Supercharging needs to get faster anyway. In my opinion they will not shrink the pack below 60kW and will not settle for less than 200 miles of range; they will reduce costs based on increased energy density and doubling cell size to reduce the number of cells by up to 65% and will have a bespoke design that allows for faster charging. The Model S will also be transitioned to the new cell design, providing much greater range and charging mph potential in order to lower the charge:drive ratio (even if Superchargers stuck at 150kW, larger capacity would allow for less tapering). The 2014 Panasonic 18650 expansion will then be transitioned to manufacturing cells for home and grid backup devices, where pack density is less important than cost.

 

[jerry33]

My expectation is that Gen III would be more range than the Model S because range is the number one question that folks who don't have an EV ask because it's their biggest concern. Even when fully built out in 2015, the Supercharger network won't cover many routes without adding 50 to 300 miles to a trip or forcing folks to drive on roads they'd rather avoid.

The longer the range, the more likely the average person is to purchase. The thinking that "75 or 100 miles is all anyone needs" is really 1970s thinking born from the technical limitations of the time. It does EV sales no favour because it reinforces the average person's belief that "EVs make me give up something I have now". People don't like to give up things. The Model S is a wild success because it overcomes that belief. Longer range can only help EV adoption. I really don't understand why so many EV enthusiasts are against it.

 

[aronth5]

Will the G3 even need supercharging? With a 45-50kWh pack it wont be able to take anywhere near full SC output, unless future chemistry has higher charge rate capability. I am concerned with G3 cars clogging up SC's in the future, unless Tesla really intends to expand the network a lot more.

JRP3 why wouldn't we expect Tesla to significantly expand the supercharger network when they start to sell Gen3 in larger numbers (50k year 1, 100k year 2, 100k+ thereafter). You do have a good point that Gen3 needs to be fully capable of using the supercharging network without having it throttled down too much. Having support for supercharging is key to Gen3 buyers willing to hand over $2k for supercharging. I think it is certainly possible that the entry level battery may not support supercharging at high rates. We will just have to wait and see but I would be disappointed if the network doesn't continue to grow fairly significantly as long a buyers are paying for it.

 

[JRP3]

If the G3 can't utilize the full SC capability, or anywhere near it, and assuming Tesla is going to expand the charging infrastructure to accomodate the greater volume of vehicles, they may add separate lower rate DC charging for the G3 vehicles.
Regarding pack size and range, the smaller lighter G3 better be able to get 200 miles of range from a 45-50kWh pack or Tesla did something wrong with the design. I don't simply want an EV, I want an efficient EV.
I'll also point out that often increased cell energy density comes with lower C rate, so don't automatically expect the next generation of cells to actually have a higher C rate and faster charge times. It's possible, but not a given.

 

[PokerBroker]

We only see the forecast of superchargers through 2015. This is very clearly to support the Model X and Model S. Tesla will have to continue to grow the supercharger network as they have more and more cars on the road and have plenty of time to have the infrastructure in place to support the Model E in 2017. That's two years of further expansion we can't even see.

 

[richkae]

Currently the 85 kWh Model S maxxes out at 120kW. Thats 1.41C, if the 60kWh maxxes out at 90kW, thats 1.5C.
If they push 135kW into the 85kWh car - that would be 1.58C

If they make a Gen3 with a 45kWh battery that has the same 208 mile range as the 60kWh Model S ( because it is 25% more efficient ), and it charges at a max rate of 1.58C that would be 71kW.
Charging at 71kW would still be 328 miles per hour, the exact same rate as charging the 60kW Model S at 1.58C.

On one hand, charging at 71kW isn't fully using the capability of the supercharger, but on the other hand if two cars are sharing a 120kW unit, they can both charge at near their maximum capacity.
Gen 3 cars won't occupy supercharger stalls any longer than Model S cars will - however there will likely be a lot more of them.

 

[stopcrazypp]

If the G3 can't utilize the full SC capability, or anywhere near it, and assuming Tesla is going to expand the charging infrastructure to accomodate the greater volume of vehicles, they may add separate lower rate DC charging for the G3 vehicles.

They won't have to do that because assuming proper utilization, the SC stalls will be splitting the charge anyways which results in about 60kW per car (assuming 120kW single) or 70kW per car (assuming 140kW single).

Supercharging aside, if the base model does not have some sort of DC charging (option or otherwise) I predict it will fail, as even compliance cars are offering it. Personally I would not buy any EV without DC charging and I believe it'll be increasingly how the market will be too come 2017. This is esp. true for a "long range" EV like what Tesla is targeting.

 

[montgom626]

Assuming that Gen 3 has a 200 mile range, will the current supercharger network allow cross country travel? The current network is setup so that a Model S can do a quick 20 minute charge and make it to the next station. If the Gen 3 has to do a 100% charge it would have to stay plugged in for an hour at each stop.

Not in cold weather (less than 32F)

 

[stopcrazypp]

The exact phrase you used was:

Gen3 will have a range between 150 to 180 and no more.

If you said 150-180 in the worst conditions, people would not take exception your claim.

Plus Elon has already said he has adjusted supercharger spacing down to 130 miles, which should be close enough for a "200 mile" Gen III.

 

[ecarfan]

My expectation is that Gen III would be more range than the Model S because range is the number one question that folks who don't have an EV ask because it's their biggest concern. Even when fully built out in 2015, the Supercharger network won't cover many routes without adding 50 to 300 miles to a trip or forcing folks to drive on roads they'd rather avoid.

I agree that the Model E/Gen III may well have more range than the current S, but I think you are making an incorrect assumption about the SC network. Tesla will continue to build and extend the network as more Teslas are produced and sold and more owners are located on smaller cities and towns. The network will not be "fully built out in 2015" it will just be getting started

The Model E seems highly likely to be successful based on Tesla's accomplishments to dats, and it will turn Tesla into a major player in the car industry and provide the funding for Tesla to expand the SC network far beyond the 2015 map.