^^This^^. EM/TM seems to want to keep this reveal very secretive. We have seen this (or similar) beta vehicles several times and a model S now with sensors on it pulling a trailer. IMO, they are doing lots of street testing on many components that have little to do with the final appearance. BUT....My wife would tell you I am seldom right (even though I think I am!):wink:
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^^This^^. EM/TM seems to want to keep this reveal very secretive. We have seen this (or similar) beta vehicles several times and a model S now with sensors on it pulling a trailer. IMO, they are doing lots of street testing on many components that have little to do with the final appearance. BUT....My wife would tell you I am seldom right (even though I think I am!):wink:
I'm just going by Occam's Razor. We have a vinyl-wrapped prototype driving around 3 months prior to launch. It is either:
-A production intent prototype with a vinyl wrap designed to disguise some of the final details, or
-A version of the original alpha that they have have spent time and energy putting new internals underneath in order to convince people that there are fewer changes to the design than there ultimately will be.
More importantly, the car in the video looks like the black car in the "spy" photos, which looks like the car in the obviously staged video at Alameda. If there is a "final" Model X that looks radically different, we haven't seen any evidence of it. So not only is Tesla testing old bodyshell prototypes, it is *only* testing old bodyshell prototypes, at least in places where people can see them.
I'm not saying scenario 2 is impossible. I am just saying it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. As a result, I wouldn't get my hopes too high that the "final" Model X looks materially different from what we see in the video.
I'd agree with those who think the body style will change significantly if there was a clear disclaimer on the official website with the picture of the Model X. I highly doubt Tesla will reveal a changed body structure and risk so many inevitable canceled reservations and negative press.
I'm not saying that there will be no changes. I am saying that any major changes will be done in inside.
(It is fun looking at that wacky speculation pictures though.)
I'm not saying that there will be no changes. I am saying that any major changes will be done in inside.
(It is fun looking at that wacky speculation pictures though.)
I'm not sure I understand your line of thinking. If we haven't seen "the real Model X," then where is it? When will we see it?
It has to be "out there somewhere." You can't test individual components in isolation (say, the "towing package" on a Model S) and then stick them all together at the last minute without the automotive equivalent of integration testing. You can't drive around a bunch of decoys with fake (or "alpha" to continue the SW metaphor) body panels, then at the last minute, glue on the new panels without plenty of road miles to test fit & finish and noise/vibration/harshness.
But I think "I did not say they were not road testing the real Model X" agrees with what I just wrote above. Which brings me back to, where is it?
Tesla and Elon can do some amazing things, but release a car that's never been seen in the wild? Not happening.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I don't believe that is the final Model X that has been spotted. A statement of opinion. That's my opinion.
Just because I've stated that I don't believe we've seen it yet doesn't mean I know where it is. Elon has stated when we'll see it, however. When he delivers the first one (which I assume is a Founders Series).
MassModel3
Member
Founder Series, Signature Series, Production Series. And yet we know absolutely nothing about any of them. Any thoughts on the differences other than who gets theirs when? Is that the only differentiator?
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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I'm just curious why you hold that opinion. Do you think that Elon's various quotes about people not having seen everything they'll be offering on the Model X means that they will be introducing a radically different bodystyle? What kinds of things do you expect to see on the "final" Model X that we don't see on the car in the video?
I have no doubt that there are going to be a bunch of surprises under the skin of the Model X, and that we'll see features that haven't yet been demonstrated or revealed. I just don't see any basis for thinking that the body shell of the car is going to look much different from what was in the Alpha prototype, other than perhaps the kind of irrational exuberance that leads a lot of us to get over-excited about every new product launch.
This. Can't forget this
I can't speak for Bonnie, but there are a number of reasons I think the final look of the X will be different than what we've seen (note I said different, not radical). I've gone over those a couple times in the thread, so no need to go in circles, but at the end of the day, we'll see.
gavine
Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast
I base my assumptions that it'll be different on two things. One, Elon basically said the car will be different. I know that's open for interpretation, but my intuition says a good amount different. Secondly, the prototype was introduced several years ago. Because of that, it is already outdated.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
For the record, I wasn't critiquing your opinion. I just don't see how someone hasn't seen it yet.
I'm operating under the assumption that, if the X is to be released in the next 3-6 months, the final version must exist by now, and must have already been driven on public roads as part of its testing. In that case, I don't see how it couldn't have been spotted.
goneskiian
Active Member
And bonnie (and others) is under "the assumption" that the final version has NOT been driven on public roads. At least the full body of the final version. Although, that Alameda video showed a differently shaped vehicle than what we're seeing here, albeit with some serious visual camouflage.
We have a young Swedish lad who says he saw something (from a good distance away) that looked pretty different on his tour of the factory 6 months ago. He's kind of backpedaling now on this statement now though.
I also agree with bonnie that these are test mules for the "under bits", interior and parts of the exterior but not all of it.
We have a young Swedish lad who says he saw something (from a good distance away) that looked pretty different on his tour of the factory 6 months ago. He's kind of backpedaling now on this statement now though.
I also agree with bonnie that these are test mules for the "under bits", interior and parts of the exterior but not all of it.
As I've said in other places, TM has far fewer facilities than most of the big automakers, and yet we routinely see their prototypes on the road--particularly 3-4 months before Job 1.
The idea that TM could be hiding significant changes just seems a bit fantastic.
But yes, we shall see.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Two comments on that
a) Tesla has the largest car factory in the world and is currently running it at about 20% of capacity - so there is an insane amount of unused space inside, a luxury that traditional car makers might not have
b) Traditional car makers tend to very carefully play with creating anticipation for their new models. So they drive them around, often HOPING to get "caught". Tesla does not appear to need to work hard on getting excitement for the Model X
I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm just trying to shine a light at a different angle...
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