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Are we ignoring the most consequential BEV adoptions?

Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by jbcarioca, Apr 24, 2018.

  1. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    #1 jbcarioca, Apr 24, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
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  2. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    For a long time many of us have ignored or dismissed Chinese manufacturers as inferior or inconsequential outside China. China is teh world's largest market, and busses are easy to produce as BEVs and have outsized environmental and economic benefits. Bloomberg explains that quite concisely.
     
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  3. brkaus

    brkaus Well-Known Member

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    Interesting article. Thanks for the link.

    Does that imply moving busses to electric will keep fuel costs down? And slow the transition of cars?
     
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  4. Zythryn

    Zythryn Model Y custom Warming Stripes wrap.

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    Unit for unit, EV buses make a huge impact.
    That is very true. However, the site does focus on passenger vehicles and areas Tesla competes in.
    I don’t see it as odd, or unexpected that the forum doesn’t make a lot of mention of buses.
     
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  5. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    If one believes the Bloomberg reporting it is not implied, it is flatly asserted. One need not think of bus transportation becoming more popular, only think of the impact of mass conversion to BEV busses globally. As BYD, Proterra, Blue-Bird, Mercedes-Benz
    Blue Bird - Electric | Bus Finder | blue-bird
    https://www.evobus.com/en/evobus-gmbh-english/layer/mercedes-benz-citaro-fully-electric-city-bus-rhein-neckar-verkehr-gmbh-is-the-first-customer/
    Electric Bus | Zero-Emission Bus | EV Bus
    BYD Auto, Build Your Dreams!

    Keep in mind that every one of these are introduction now, and being deployed in replacement of city busses and school busses. In all such applications battery sizing can by optimal of actual daily use patterns including recharging, so they do not typically require the larger batteries needed for cars.
     
  6. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    Actually, neither do I. However, this portion of teh Forum is dedicated to non-Tesla vehicles. Even here we barely mention the most practical and easy category for BEV adoption. FWIW, I am convinced that is one reason why Tesla has not entered this market; there is plentiful competition with quite adequate offerings. Tesla concentrates on the more difficult categories, and does a superb job of popularising categories nobody previously entered. Original Roadster, Model S, Model X, Model 3, Semi and new Roadster have all done things nobody thought possible. The consequences have been transformational, as we all see. Busses, specifically, are achieving such massive adoption precisely because they are less difficult to make practical, economically, budget-benefitting solutions.

    Tesla, by contrast, achieves the seemingly impossible:, Swiss highway police cars, large taxi fleets, beating BMW and Mercedes-Benz is premium sedans...

    It seems to me that while Tesla, Space X and The Boring Company act to help Elon Musk and all of his colleagues fulfil things we only thought of as fantasy.

    We also need to celebrate the achievements of those that make sound commercial propositions for less speculative ventures. Even those were thought to be impossible back when BYD was formed. How else to think of Build Your Dreams?

    All this makes me optimistic about the world.
     
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  7. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    Maybe because:

    Transportation in the United States - Wikipedia

    Maybe it's because buses only account for 5.5% of US highway miles.

    Passenger transport statistics - Statistics Explained

    In the EU coaches and buses are 9.1% of passenger miles.

    Plus, this is a site related to Tesla, which means many people on higher incomes who definitely aren't bus users.
    If you want more discussion about buses, try a more generalist site like insideevs.

    Yes there are significant benefits, but buses are a relatively easy conversion because that's decided by government.

    If autonomous transportation is successful, the likely effect would be to move more people into smaller vehicles and large bus miles would decrease.
     
  8. Zythryn

    Zythryn Model Y custom Warming Stripes wrap.

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    The ratio of miles buses travel may be small. However. I am guessing the ratio of fuel use is more significant.
    Electric buses also do a ton of heavy lifting in terms of reducing the local pollution along their routes, and the riders of the buses.

    There electric buses are being adopted much quicker than electric cars. There seems to be much less resistance.
    Perhaps because the buyers of buses look at the bottom line, while cars are a much more emotional buy for many.
     
  9. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    It's _passenger_ miles, which already includes the fact that they carry multiple passengers. A loaded bus is very fuel efficient per passenger mile and even though they often run light on passengers, the decreased stops help fuel economy.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/661672/env0101.ods

    In the UK, it's declined over time as car use has increased. In 2015 buses were 3.35% of all petrol and diesel fuel use. Passenger cars and taxis were 94.5%.

    It's kind of hard to tell how much difference it'll make given the long bus life cycle. Replacing all current buses with the latest diesels would likely also put a significant dent in fuel use and pollution.

    Replacing diesel taxis with electric would also help a bit, and perhaps in an outsized way on pollution. Cabbies are known to delete their DPFs for better fuel economy, which is terrible for pollution.

    The buses are largely purchased and subsidized by governments. They're obviously looking at more than the bottom line.

    I think that buses are a relatively small and easy case. It's passenger cars, vans, trucks and aviation that are the big and tough targets.
     
  10. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    At what prices are diesel fuel and electons equal in cost per mile ? Care to give an example??
     
  11. brkaus

    brkaus Well-Known Member

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    I’ve dine the math. I know electric is cheaper. But it really takes a shock factor on gas prices to make people consider electric. To much fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
     
  12. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    #12 Brando, Apr 24, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
    Slightly OFF TOPIC as this is about diesel trucks vs Buses - they do share power supplies.

    http://atri-online.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/2016.ATRI-UMTRI.FuelEconomyReport.Final_.pdf
    The State of Fuel Economy in Trucking

    6.5 miles per gallon => $2.50 / gallon => $0.38 /mile

    2kWh / mile Elon claiming to promise to sell for $0.07 national average about $0.11
    => $0.14 - $0.22 / mile
    Tesla Semi

    savings could be $0.24 - $0.16/mile
    miles per year seem to range from 43,000 - 58,000 -190,000 per year
    ($10,000 to $14,000 to 45,600) ($7,000 to $9,300 to $30,400)
    Total costs are a little more complex and would include oil, and brake pads costs added to diesel trucks.

    Please double check above links before commenting.
    Better yet, provide your own details of how you'd calculate.
     
  13. brkaus

    brkaus Well-Known Member

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    Is this directed at me?
     
  14. McRat

    McRat Well-Known Member

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    In California, they already collected big bucks for switching to CNG buses. These probably have 10 years left in them.
    They aren't going to swap a CNG bus for an EV.
    We consider CNG as carbon free in California.
    Yes, our school system collapsed a long time ago.
     
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  15. brkaus

    brkaus Well-Known Member

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    Texas has propane school buses that are only a few years old. Grants from Texas Environmental Quality or some such agency. Helps sell propane I guess. We are stuck too. .
     

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