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Are we worried yet about Tesla Stock?

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Well, here's the 1-year:

Screen Shot 2016-02-08 at 10.53.34 AM.png


Here's the 5-year:

Screen Shot 2016-02-08 at 10.54.21 AM.png


It's kind of difficult not to see that something significant is happening.
 
Ouch, another 10% today. $147 now. $280 less than a year ago. Almost 50%. Disappointed I didn't get out at $280 or $260 or $240 or $220 or $200, but happy I bailed at $180. Will get back in at some point. The stock market is going down in general, but Tesla is a risky stock and those get hit harder in a down market. Tesla needed a correction beyond the regular market. Once it finds it settling point, I'll jump back in. Love the company and the outlook and the future, but the stock price really made no logical sense when comparing it how the rest of the market is. Made a little on it since I bought below $180. Will be interesting to see what happens.
 
Yes concerned it will pop up higher before I get around to buying more! Autopilot, SC network are unique to Tesla. They have a huge headstart on other EV so will enjoy being "the Cadillac" or perhaps the "BMW"of EV world for a few years.
 
Autopilot, SC network are unique to Tesla.

Autopilot? I just mentioned in an other tread, BMW's new 7 series knows Tesla's all AP tricks except auto lane change, but it's not a big deal to catch up with that. Same story with MB's new E class or Audi etc. Autopilot isn't gonna be a crucial feature in the future. All major automakers are developing it on full power.

The SC network is a good selling point now, but if governments, energy companies, etc. will build their own fast charging network and it will be cheap (they might be even free at some location), then it loses it's charm as well.
 
Autopilot? I just mentioned in an other tread, BMW's new 7 series knows Tesla's all AP tricks except auto lane change, but it's not a big deal to catch up with that. Same story with MB's new E class or Audi etc. Autopilot isn't gonna be a crucial feature in the future. All major automakers are developing it on full power.

The SC network is a good selling point now, but if governments, energy companies, etc. will build their own fast charging network and it will be cheap (they might be even free at some location), then it loses it's charm as well.


I know I'm preaching to the choir here.......


Autopilot:
Of course others have started, my impression is that the Tesla autopilot is unique in that your Tesla driving down my road learns about lane shift and feeds it to mothership then back to my car so my car does not have to learn all by itself . Recent review compared MB BMW TESLA ability to AP navigate highway ,rural, city roads. Guess who crushed it?

Supercharging:
'But if' governments, energy, that is a long shot that's a mighty big if.
In contrast TeslaSC is done. Sure we need some in PA, South Midwest and Downeast .. But it is a fait accompli.
 
I don't think Model 3 is at the stage yet were they need to spend loads on Capex. Maybe at the end of 2016, so they still have some quarters were they don't need to raise equity and can still keep their pace.

Few engineering, design and planning problems are accelerated by throwing money at them. Let' not forget that they can produce 1000 X per week and sell them for $140k very soon if all goes well.
You have to test your engineering designs and validate them. That requires a lot of money as you need a lot of prototype parts to come to a solid result.
 
I know I'm preaching to the choir here.......


Autopilot:
Of course others have started, my impression is that the Tesla autopilot is unique in that your Tesla driving down my road learns about lane shift and feeds it to mothership then back to my car so my car does not have to learn all by itself . Recent review compared MB BMW TESLA ability to AP navigate highway ,rural, city roads. Guess who crushed it?

Supercharging:
'But if' governments, energy, that is a long shot that's a mighty big if.
In contrast TeslaSC is done. Sure we need some in PA, South Midwest and Downeast .. But it is a fait accompli.

Listen! I don't want to start a purblind "Tesla vs. anything" kind of fight! All I wanted to point out is that, the autopilot is not unique to Tesla. Yes, one of them is always better than the others, but there are no big differences between them. Actually I (being a kind of geek) find Tesla's solution fascinating too! But we are just a small bunch of nerds in the big world whom are interested in tech details. But think out of the box. Try to imagine if you were an average potential buyer out there. Were you interested in tech details? NO! What an average guy cares about is like "Does it have AP? It does! Is it usable? It is!" That all they care, nothing more. And this is true for all. So from an investment standpoint (since this is an investment thread) we can't say the AP is a big selling point of Tesla and this is the savior technology of the company. We can't rely on that! This was the point of my first reply.

Ohh... And just one more thought for supercharging:
I don't know what is the progress in this field in the US, but in the EU it has already started. The 150kW version of the European standard DC plug (Combo2) was already shown and it's being standardized. The local electric company already has some free charging stations in the area. They are just 25 (Type2) or 50 kW (Combo2) chargers at the moment, but they can be easily upgraded to 150 kW after the new standard will be accepted. And I've read the EU parlament (in partnership with other 3rd party companies) is intended to build a fast charging network along the highways. Or just have a look at this EV charger map of Europe and imagine what would be if just 1/10 of them were upgraded to the upcoming 150 kW standard.
So yes, it's still an 'if', but it's a very possible if, rather than a 'big mighty if'. And you're true, the Tesla SC is already done. But from an investment standpoint (again) we're speaking about the future, right?
 
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As to AP the question is with other companies who's making money on it? With Tesla I'm going to go on a limb and say they'll be making quite a handy profit from AP since they have a substantial portion of the solution in-house. And looks like they might be on their way to having a full end to end implementation in house as well. Not so much with others, since like it's been said before they're just making the engine, shell and assemble. MBLY, Bosch etc. are the ones who stand to profit from the rest of AP installs.
 
When I purchased my Tesla stock, it was 1% of my portfolio. It is now almost 10%, even though my portfolio has doubled. Wall Street has no idea how to deal with a company the is investing heavily in infrastructure, so they see Tesla as a big loser and keep dropping cash into shorts. Am I in for the long-term? You bet.
 
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