Just in time for the IPO dumping next month (6 months after IPO date). It's on my calendar and when I plan to buy more shares.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Are you also investing in Tesla?
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
- Start date
-
- Tags
- Tesla Inc.
Just in time for the IPO dumping next month (6 months after IPO date). It's on my calendar and when I plan to buy more shares.
Thanks for the info. I didnt know about that but I'll be all over it.
It crazy that the stock jumped about 50% in 2 months off a less than expected loss. I can only imagine what this stock will be at in 2-3 years when they're actually posting profits and at full production.
"When you drill down into the disclosures in Tesla's most recent quarterly report, you'll find that $88 million of its $202 million in working capital is set aside as restricted cash for capital investments in facilities construction, which leaves a paltry $114 in real working capital to cover anticipated operating losses and the pre-production costs for the 2012 introduction of its Model S sedan."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/237078-high-conviction-energy-play-pair-short-tesla-with-long-exide-avoid-valence?source=cnbc
How accurate is this guy? My understanding was that they have more than enough working capital to last more than a year. The proceeds from the IPO and the DOE funds give them approx 691 million dollars and that doesnt even include the investments from Toyota, Chrysler and Panasonic.
I doubt this guy knows what he's talking about if thinks Tesla doesnt have enough to operate for a year when the Model S isnt set to release for 1 1/2 years.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/237078-high-conviction-energy-play-pair-short-tesla-with-long-exide-avoid-valence?source=cnbc
How accurate is this guy? My understanding was that they have more than enough working capital to last more than a year. The proceeds from the IPO and the DOE funds give them approx 691 million dollars and that doesnt even include the investments from Toyota, Chrysler and Panasonic.
I doubt this guy knows what he's talking about if thinks Tesla doesnt have enough to operate for a year when the Model S isnt set to release for 1 1/2 years.
Stock is almost doubled now.
33.40 +2.41 (7.78%) Nov 22 4:00pm ET
33.75 +0.35 (1.05%) After Hours
Open: 31.57
High: 33.45
Low: 31.50
Volume: 1,529,972
Avg Vol: 810,000
Mkt Cap: 3.12B
Tesla (TSLA) NewsBite - TSLA Hits 52-Week High of 33.42
Posted: Monday, November 22, 2010 11:19 AM EDT
33.40 +2.41 (7.78%) Nov 22 4:00pm ET
33.75 +0.35 (1.05%) After Hours
Open: 31.57
High: 33.45
Low: 31.50
Volume: 1,529,972
Avg Vol: 810,000
Mkt Cap: 3.12B
Tesla (TSLA) NewsBite - TSLA Hits 52-Week High of 33.42
Posted: Monday, November 22, 2010 11:19 AM EDT
http://www.marketintelligencecenter.com/articles/1232246
Last edited:
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Peterson has a basic, irrational dislike of electric vehicles, often using bizarre scenarios to "prove" why they can't work. One of his favorites is that EV's are a waste of resources because we should take all the available battery capacity and spread it out among Prius type hybrids. He's also heavily into Axion and their stop/start PbC battery technology. Since I discovered his material a month or two ago my daily ritual often includes commenting on one of his articles to counter the FUD. I don't think he likes me much
Last edited:
benji4
Roadster 2.5 #0476
The problem with TSLA is really valuation -- with a market valuation of $3.3 billion at its current stock price of around $35 per share, and assuming that they will knock the cover off the ball with the Model S launch in two years, it's still a very pricey stock for the automobile sector. For example, suppose that Tesla can sell 20,000 units of the Model S per year with a pre-tax net profit of $10,000 per vehicle (about a 20% margin -- excellent by any standard). In that case, pre-tax net profit on the Model S program would be $200 million per year, leaving perhaps $130 million after taxes are paid. Assuming zero profit on the Roadster program at that point, the Model S business, executed flawlessly, gives TSLA a price earnings ratio of close to 30x which is very high for an automobile company. I'm not taking into account the drive train business, but even if profits from that are $50 or $60 million per year it won't change the valuation all that much. In addition to the valuation problem even in the case of a perfect Model S launch, TSLA tends to give out lots of stock options to management and employees, a lot of which are probably already in the money. As those options get excercised, the number of shares outstanding will continue to increase driving up valuations further. Perhaps you are looking at a $4 billion dollar market cap then and a higher PER number... also, as the company matures, talented employees are less likely to be happy with lots of stock options which means salaries will rise which puts pressure on profits and further hurts valuations.
The potential of a buyout by Toyota or other big manufacturer is a wildcard which could present shareholders with a nice exit plan, but that's definately not a given. If Tesla does well in their business, it would be just as well for Toyota to continue partnering with them rather than buying them outright, both because it would be expensive and also because it buying the company could damage it wasting resources at both Toyota and Telsa. Neither company wants to go there I don't think... the other scenario would be that Tesla continues to lose money, is late with the Model S launch or is otherwise unable to make solid profit margins on each vehicle sold, and needs to be bought out in order to continue to operations. In that case, perhaps someone pays $3 billion or less to take it over meaning that at best TSLA is dead money for the next three years while shareholders wait for that scenario to unfold.
These are precisely the reasons why so much professional money is now shorting the stock as is mentioned in the Bloomberg article. Tesla is a great story and what it's doing is changing the industry permanently as well as doing genuine good for the planet. I would not have bought a Roadster if I did not think so and I am a huge supporter of the company. I'm amazed by the amount of talent they have been able to put together under one roof. However, these great attributes do not unfortunately make TSLA a good investment -- so maybe for now it's better just to buy a car from them and not invest in the stock! With stocks, however, you never know... I could well be wrong, and certainly I hope that I am. I may buy a few shares anyway....
The potential of a buyout by Toyota or other big manufacturer is a wildcard which could present shareholders with a nice exit plan, but that's definately not a given. If Tesla does well in their business, it would be just as well for Toyota to continue partnering with them rather than buying them outright, both because it would be expensive and also because it buying the company could damage it wasting resources at both Toyota and Telsa. Neither company wants to go there I don't think... the other scenario would be that Tesla continues to lose money, is late with the Model S launch or is otherwise unable to make solid profit margins on each vehicle sold, and needs to be bought out in order to continue to operations. In that case, perhaps someone pays $3 billion or less to take it over meaning that at best TSLA is dead money for the next three years while shareholders wait for that scenario to unfold.
These are precisely the reasons why so much professional money is now shorting the stock as is mentioned in the Bloomberg article. Tesla is a great story and what it's doing is changing the industry permanently as well as doing genuine good for the planet. I would not have bought a Roadster if I did not think so and I am a huge supporter of the company. I'm amazed by the amount of talent they have been able to put together under one roof. However, these great attributes do not unfortunately make TSLA a good investment -- so maybe for now it's better just to buy a car from them and not invest in the stock! With stocks, however, you never know... I could well be wrong, and certainly I hope that I am. I may buy a few shares anyway....
Last edited:
Tesla stock is more of a tech stock than an automobile co. stock.
While it is overvalued, if 65% of the float is short, the stock is much more likely to go up than down in the near term. This is called a short squeeze.
Going short on Tesla with that many short shares already is financial suicide.
While it is overvalued, if 65% of the float is short, the stock is much more likely to go up than down in the near term. This is called a short squeeze.
Going short on Tesla with that many short shares already is financial suicide.
benji4
Roadster 2.5 #0476
Yes, it's fair to say that it 'trades' more like a tech stock than an automobile stock -- but what is it really? Kind of a combination of both I guess... certainly they are very high tech, but they make cars and as such they will have to make large investments in plant and equipment. But even it were a pure technology play it's not exactly cheap at a multiple that itself won't occur unless things go very, very well from here on out. I agree though, it would probably not be a good idea to short the stock with so much of the float already shorted.... there are better stocks out there to short, no need playing with fire. I'm just saying that longer term, perhaps this stock is not exactly a screaming buy. That said, I did buy a Roadster from them at least so I'm doing what I can to support the dream! I love the company, but I don't love the stock just quite yet... if there are a few delays in the Model S program, a loss or two bigger than projected, etc. over the next year or so which invariably will be the case, we might see the stock come back down to levels that make it more of a buy.
So how long do you guys think TSLA will be struggling? Sounds like it wont be till they release the Bluestar till they'll actually be a thriving company.
I think the Model S will help them to get to the point to be able to release the bluestar and once they're able to release that EVs will become mainstream.
I think that Tesla is a risky but good investment because although they'll be struggling for the next few years once they're able to release the bluestar they'll change the entire auto industry.
I think the Model S will help them to get to the point to be able to release the bluestar and once they're able to release that EVs will become mainstream.
I think that Tesla is a risky but good investment because although they'll be struggling for the next few years once they're able to release the bluestar they'll change the entire auto industry.
roblab
Active Member
Well, there you go. Every day I read some stock expert explain in detail why Tesla will be a bad stock to own. And the stocks go up, and the stocks go down.
I didn't buy this stock to make a killing in the market. I know some people do. Some people gamble at casinos, too. I didn't buy because I wanted to make a big profit in a month or two.
I bought it because I believe that electric cars are the future, and I really dislike the current flock of auto mfgs who put out about anything to make you think they are cool. They never cared.
Tesla has a dream, and it is shared by a lot of people. Some of those buy cars, some stock, some just read blogs, but some of us don't plan to put our money in banks to make the bankers richer and us losers when we can help build a dream.
Maybe I shouldn't be in Tesla stocks, but it seems to me that that is what drives the market: Dreams, guesses, opinions, prognostications. Nobody knows.
And I certainly don't have this feeling about GM or Ford, or even Nissan. None of them are game changers. Tesla is. That's where I put my money.
I didn't buy this stock to make a killing in the market. I know some people do. Some people gamble at casinos, too. I didn't buy because I wanted to make a big profit in a month or two.
I bought it because I believe that electric cars are the future, and I really dislike the current flock of auto mfgs who put out about anything to make you think they are cool. They never cared.
Tesla has a dream, and it is shared by a lot of people. Some of those buy cars, some stock, some just read blogs, but some of us don't plan to put our money in banks to make the bankers richer and us losers when we can help build a dream.
Maybe I shouldn't be in Tesla stocks, but it seems to me that that is what drives the market: Dreams, guesses, opinions, prognostications. Nobody knows.
And I certainly don't have this feeling about GM or Ford, or even Nissan. None of them are game changers. Tesla is. That's where I put my money.
Real Value of Tesla Motors is the Technology Driving the Electric Vehicle, Not the Fu
Real Value of Tesla Motors is the Technology Driving the Electric Vehicle, Not the Future Model S Sedan
http://www.otcequity.com/?p=594
Real Value of Tesla Motors is the Technology Driving the Electric Vehicle, Not the Future Model S Sedan
http://www.otcequity.com/?p=594
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Pretty poor article in general.
I still don't see a big future for Tesla's battery system as larger format prismatics continue to improve. Wrangling 6831 individual cells is an impressive feat and keeps bare cell cost low but the pack assembly and battery management issues, climate management and energy it wastes, seems overly complicated for an average passenger vehicle. It makes sense where you need the power and energy density as in the Roadster and S but I'm not sure it's a good fit in most vehicles.
Even the base Model S will have enough range to do much more than that.
I still don't see a big future for Tesla's battery system as larger format prismatics continue to improve. Wrangling 6831 individual cells is an impressive feat and keeps bare cell cost low but the pack assembly and battery management issues, climate management and energy it wastes, seems overly complicated for an average passenger vehicle. It makes sense where you need the power and energy density as in the Roadster and S but I'm not sure it's a good fit in most vehicles.
What are the advantages that prismatic batteries have over cylindrical batteries and vice versa?
Last edited:
Similar threads
