Are you also investing in Tesla?

[ckessel]

N I work for a $20Bn company, but we occasionally buy up $20M firms to access their technology. Those businesses are pretty much left to run themselves unless there's a real reason not to.

You must work at one of the few exceptions to the rule then. I've been in the software industry for 20 years and been through numerous buyouts as have my friends. In every single instance, the quick lean company was gutted, QC offshored, IT offshored, the parent companies dog-slow process enforced, turning it into a shell of a company and ruining what made it worth buying in the first place.

 

[Tommy]

Tesla Motors (TSLA) Model S To Be First In Its Price Range Until 2014; Makes It A Top Pick In Automotive Alternative Energy For Deutsche Bank Analyst Dan Galves - Yahoo! Finance

It's unlikely they will have any electric vehicle competition in the Model S price range until probably 2014 at least. We think that they really have a head start. I guess the last thing I would point to is their power train technology. They have been able to use somewhat off-the-shelf laptop cells, and through software and engineering, they have been able to extend the life to 10 years as opposed to two years. Because these batteries are produced at such a huge scale for consumer electronics, they are able to buy them very cheaply. Basically, Tesla is using existing small-format cells instead of buying the advanced automotive cells that I discussed earlier. So it really helps Tesla because they have a lower-cost power train than most of the other automakers are going to have for a little while, and they are kind of able to put a bigger battery in the car for the same type of cost, which gives more driving range.

 

[JRP3]

They have been able to use somewhat off-the-shelf laptop cells, and through software and engineering, they have been able to extend the life to 10 years as opposed to two years.

While I hope that proves to be the case we don't yet know how long they will last.

 

[markwj]

While I hope that proves to be the case we don't yet know how long they will last.

Tesla must have about 5 years data now, from the earliest prototypes. It would be fascinating to hear what that is showing. Presumably not too bad, as they are still offering the 7 year battery replacement program at a forecast cost.

 

[Eberhard]

Tesla must even have 8 years data. starting from TZero in 2003

 

[Tommy]

Goldman Sachs comments on Tesla Motors after hosting an investor meetings with the company management in New York on April 20 and 21:

Notable Calls: Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA): Investor meeting yielded significant positives, according to Goldman

The takeaways:

Orders have picked up for the Model S, tracking at over 4,000 from around 3,400 at year’s end. The company expects to have 2012 production sold out soon and believes the first 12 months of production could be sold out by the end of this year. The company is on track to launch the Model S by mid-2012, having now sourced virtually all of its components, providing better cost visibility versus a few months ago. This has also provided added confidence around the 25% gross margin target for the program. With Tesla working successfully though many key design risks, Goldman now sees increased focus on managing vendor risk and large scale production. While the Model S production target remains at 20,000 for 2012, Tesla is configuring the Fremont facility to manufacture 20,000 units on one shift per year, as opposed to the 10,000 originally planed, in order to maximize upward production flexibility. The company has completed the build-out of numerous drivable “alpha” prototypes and expects to produce preproduction “beta” prototypes in the fall which will be shown to the public.

While the company believes it has enough liquidity to complete the Model S program on its own it expects to conduct a $100-$200 mn capital raise in the fall to help cover the upcoming Model X program which has been accelerated as well as a stepped-up investment in vertical integration and additional equipment from the former NUMMI plant which should be able to service Tesla’s production needs for more than five years.

Implications
Management’s reiteration of production and cost targets on the Model S post supplier sourcing and extensive prototype testing is a significant positive and gives the firm increased confidence that investors will be able to exceed the 25% annual returns used to discount their price target.

Notablecalls: While Goldman is not exactly a Tesla bull (Neutral rated, $29 tgt), the note does include some new information that may cause quite a stir among investors:

- Tesla seems to be readying for greater-than-forecast demand for Model S.

- The company has enough cash to complete the Model S program without additional financing. The offering, speculated to be a very n-t event may actually be 6 months away.

- Overall, everything seems to be going as planned. This is a surprise in itself as Tesla is a relatively new company and therefore prone to experience delays of all sorts.

Goldman is calling the info they gleaned from the management a significant positive. That's a strong statement on a high-beta name like TSLA.

 

[Fr23shjive]

^I saw that news this morning.

Looks like we're racking up a little more than 100 reservation for the Model S per month. That should increase the closer we get to the actual delivery date.

it expects to conduct a $100-$200 mn capital raise in the fall to help cover the upcoming Model X program

This should cause a drop in the share price. Could be a good time to pick up some stock before deliveries start.

While the Model S production target remains at 20,000 for 2012

I thought production for 2012 was supposed to be 7.5-10k. Did they increase that to 20k? Seems like a lot if deliveries dont start till mid 2012.

At this rate we're going to have every major analyst on board with an overweight rating. Good news for us share holders.

 

[Norbert]

I thought production for 2012 was supposed to be 7.5-10k. Did they increase that to 20k? Seems like a lot if deliveries dont start till mid 2012.

I think the 20k number should refer to 2013. 2012 projection is 5000 (or 7000?), IIRC.

 

[TEG]

Tesla Up 6% As Pac Crest Says Buy, DOE Forms Partnership - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

 

[malcolm]

Tesla to sell further 5.3 million shares

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/25/idUS147320718020110525

"According to the company prospectus, Tesla’s additional 5.3 million shares — plus another option for an additional 795,000 shares of common stock for the underwriter — could net a maximum offering price of $158.47 million, at a proposed maximum offer price of $26 per share."

 

[Norbert]

Tesla to sell further 5.3 million shares

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/25/idUS147320718020110525

There has been some discussion about this in this thread:
Bloomberg video (interview): Tesla's Musk Interview About Model S, SpaceX

 

[Doug_G]

SEC Filing March 25, 2011

SEC Filing March 25, 2011

We currently intend to end the production run of the Tesla Roadster in December 2011, but we will continue to sell the remaining inventory of Tesla Roadsters in the first half of 2012.

As of April 30, 2011, we had received approximately 4,600 customer reservations with a minimum refundable payment of $5,000.

 

[vfx]

Tesla Motors Announces Date for Second Quarter 2011 Results - MarketWatch

 

[vfx]

1-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Tesla Motors? - Business - Motley Fool - msnbc.com

Just last week, NEALWF nicely summed up the Tesla bear case:
Major manufacturers on the verge of mass producing electric cars, what is their differentiation? The only shot at identity was their "sports" coupe (how most automotive brands build a name) but they just announced they are discontinuing it? death sentence imo....

Currently, Tesla even trades at a particularly lofty price-to-sales ratio of 21. That represents a massive premium to other auto plays like GM (0.3), Ford (0.4), and Toyota (0.6).

 

[vfx]

Is there a way to show this video here?

http://video.app.msn.com/watch/vide...pkey=c726ba4a-19cd-496b-bf34-9573f8c858a7||||

 

[S-2000 Roadster]

Is there a way to show this video here?

http://video.app.msn.com/watch/vide...pkey=c726ba4a-19cd-496b-bf34-9573f8c858a7||||

The link is sufficient for me, and is actually preferred to an embedded video.

 

[JRP3]

1-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Tesla Motors? - Business - Motley Fool - msnbc.com

Major manufacturers on the verge of mass producing electric cars, what is their differentiation? The only shot at identity was their "sports" coupe (how most automotive brands build a name) but they just announced they are discontinuing it? death sentence imo....

Great comment from someone who obviously has no idea of the Tesla business model.

 

[richkae]

The comment is also complete proof that the guy is more than just a fool, he is an idiot. Only an idiot would publish an article claiming to offer investment advice and a "closer look" at a company and not make any real effort to understand their business.

 

[Jaff]

What could possibly lead this "analyst" to think that the world's first mass produced, luxury performance BEV won't have an identity?

This guy should stick to 30 yr bonds...

 

[Fr23shjive]

Morgan Stanley narrowed its 2011 and 2012 EPS estimates for Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) and maintained its overweight rating and $70 price target.

The bank now sees a 2011 loss of $2.00, narrower than its previous estimate of $2.10 per share, and a 2012 loss of $2.21, narrower than its previous estimate of $2.28 per share.

Tesla Motors Inc has a potential upside of 24.6% based on a current price of $29.06 and an average consensus analyst price target of $36.2

Morgan Stanley Narrowed Its 2011, 2012 EPS Estimates For Tesla Motors | FINANCIAL NEWS NETWORK ONLINE

I keep seeing price targets of 35-70 dollars per share but when is the price target for? Next year, this year, when the model S is released?