Are you also investing in Tesla?

[qwk]

The guy who wrote the article seems a little bit weird to me... he sais that he thinks there's a long term potential in the Tesla stock. Why does he use call options then? Apple ok, but I wouldn't use call options for a long term investment in Tesla because its stock is really volatile. You could get knocked out easily...

Loss is limited but there is a huge gain if stock really takes off.

 

[doug]

Loss is limited but there is a huge gain if stock really takes off.

Unless you're a short seller...

 

[benji4]

Loss is limited but there is a huge gain if stock really takes off.

Right, if he is simply buying some call options his loss is only the cost of the options since he is buying them, not writing them. And since options have all sorts of different strike dates, maybe he is buying options that are still one year or more out, who knows.... don't neccesarily think it's a bad strategy even if he is thinking long-term.

 

[TEG]

Projecting The Market Value Of Tesla Motors - Seeking Alpha

 

[AnOutsider]

Projecting The Market Value Of Tesla Motors - Seeking Alpha

Some good debate in the comments

 

[benji4]

Based on those (we believe moderately optimistic) assumptions our target price for Tesla is $13.

What does he mean by a target price of $13? Does not seem to match his comment that "By the Apple measure, Tesla, with just a meager 5% market share, would be worth $ 38 billion in 2017." If the Model S program succeeds there is some definate upside in Tesla's stock price, probably a lot of upside. At the same time the numbers presented in the piece don't really make that much sense.

 

[AnOutsider]

What does he mean by a target price of $13? Does not seem to match his comment that "By the Apple measure, Tesla, with just a meager 5% market share, would be worth $ 38 billion in 2017." If the Model S program succeeds there is some definate upside in Tesla's stock price, probably a lot of upside. At the same time the numbers presented in the piece don't really make that much sense.

he paints a rosy picture then shatters it and undervalues (IMO)

 

[Tempus]

he paints a rosy picture then shatters it and undervalues (IMO)

I felt like he was intentionally painting an unrealistic picture so that he could then mock it more easily. ie, - I will make up some completely impossible numbers, and then criticize the fact that it's not reasonable to expect any company to hit them. - Just look at how he starts - he doubles the number of cars that i've heard tesla will try to make in 2012 (10k, vs 5k that i've heard everywhere). And some of his extrapolations are just absurd.

So then when he reverses and goes to the other extreme, no one blinks. I'm not sure what specifically he mans by "target price of $13", but assuming it means that's where he thinks the stock is headed, that seems awfully far off to me. *shrug*

 

[Lloyd]

Did he mean 13 Billion for the company, total capitalization? That would make more sense.

 

[Nik]

Did he mean 13 Billion for the company, total capitalization? That would make more sense.

A target price is given as 'per share' and represents t=what the analyst thinks the fair price for the share is, given the current position of the company and the risks and opportunities in the future. It's hard to tell with TM because if Model S is a success then very probably Model X will be too and there is enough to survive on. If Modle S fails then the company is in big trouble and the share price will be pennies.

Many analysts probably won't understand how TM is different to other auto companies, and can't know if that will make a big difference to them.

 

[Thumper]

Interesting. If true, the short sellers are about to get creamed. Tesla: The Looming Short Squeeze - Seeking Alpha

 

[JRP3]

Well he actually says he thinks there might be a 20% chance of a short squeeze, far from a sure thing. I'd like to see it but I'm not expecting it.

 

[Nik]

For whatever reason, TMF seems to be completely anti-Tesla. That's ok, they were completely anti-Amazon back in the day as well.

Tesla now TMF's sole choice for investing in EV-manufacturing companies...
http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2011/09/20/some-electric-vehicles-are-already-dead-in-the-wat.aspx

 

[vfx]

Is Tesla climbing with the Oct 1st event coming or is it just tracking with the market?

 

[Cobos]

Well the TSLA stock hasn't risen that much it's still regaining stock value losses from a few months back. I'm very curious what the stock will do around the oct 1. date. Perhaps rising sharply and then falling again a few days later? I got my miniscule amount of stock at about $22 so I'm patient and might consider selling after a successfull Model S launch, as in autumn 2012.

Cobos

 

[NigelM]

Is Tesla climbing with the Oct 1st event coming....?

I think so; I just bought some more stock.

 

[NigelM]

9/21/2011

Morgan-Stanley-maintains-overweight-on-tesla-motors

Morgan Stanley is out with its report today on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA), maintaining Overweight.

In its report, Morgan Stanley writes, "Tesla continues to hit milestones and deliver on schedule. Despite equity market turmoil, the shares have outperformed year-to-date and since the market peak in July. We expect the company's Model S preview event the weekend of October 1 will generate press coverage, lead to higher reservations, and serve as a catalyst for the shares."

Shares of TSLA closed Tuesday at $26.01, up 0.93% from Monday's close

 

[JRod0802]

9/21/2011

Morgan-Stanley-maintains-overweight-on-tesla-motors

Do you know where I can find the actual report? I looked around, but I couldn't find it.

 

[NigelM]

Do you know where I can find the actual report? I looked around, but I couldn't find it.

I don't find it either, but I'm going to contact a few friends in the banking biz to see if I can get a copy. Meanwhile here's a few slides from the original report earlier this year.

 

[doug]

Robert W. Baird Analysts Begin Coverage on Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) | Localized USA

Equities research analysts at Robert W. Baird initiated coverage on shares of Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) in a research note issued to investors on Thursday. They set an “outperform” rating and a $35.00 price target on the stock.

Separately, analysts at Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) reiterated an “overweight” rating on shares of Tesla Motors Inc in a research note to investors on Wednesday. Also, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch initiated coverage on shares of Tesla Motors Inc in a research note to investors on Monday, August 8th. They set a “buy” rating on the stock.