ARK's open-source valuation model for TSLA

[mblakele]

I think this deserves its own thread:

Tesla Valuation Model: Are Investors Stuck in Reverse?

TashaARK/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

Last August, we wrote an open letter to Elon Musk and Tesla’s Board of Directors with an extract from our Tesla valuation model that communicated why privatizing Tesla at $420 per share would deprive shareholders, many of whom have supported the company for years, of significant returns. We believed then, and even more so now, that TSLA will deliver significant returns during the next five years.

We have updated and now are open-sourcing that extract with the following conclusions. Even if full autonomy turns out to be “science fiction” and Tesla cannot produce an autonomous car, ARK estimates that the electric vehicle opportunity alone would boost its stock 2-6 fold from $195 today to $560-$1,200 by 2023. If Tesla does solve for full autonomy, however, and its electric vehicle (EV) production surpasses our bear case estimates, TSLA could scale significantly higher than our previous $4,000* price target during the next five years, thanks to our newly introduced bull case for electric vehicle volumes.

To foster informed and healthy debate, we have published our Tesla valuation model with explanations on Github at the link here. Feel free to change the relevant variables to battle test both the bearish and the bullish investment cases. We will welcome all questions and constructive criticism and feedback.​

 

[mblakele]

I would like to see those guys build the capital budget Tesla would need to meet those time frames.

You could request that in the github repo: TashaARK/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

I like the idea of a valuation model with its own issue tracker....

 

[Navin]

what's weird is they don't include tesla energy at all...

 

[Cheburashka]

A company that isnt obsessed with customer satisfaction is doomed to fail.

 

[mblakele]

ARK Invest - this afternoon: Tesla Valuation Model: Are Investors Stuck in Reverse?

Here's a thread for it — wouldn't want it to get lost in the roundtable thread.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

A company that isnt obsessed with customer satisfaction is doomed to fail.

Like Amazon, XOM and MSFT? They barely even acknowledge their customers exist.

 

[mblakele]

I love reading this. Very professional and all assumptions are well defended. What s breath of fresh air.

Me too. I'm quoting you in this ARK-specific thread to try to shift discussion out of the roundtable. It's an experiment

 

[Cheburashka]

Like Amazon, XOM and MSFT? They barely even acknowledge their customers exist.

What are you talking about? Amazon is extremely obsessed with customer satisfaction.

 

[mblakele]

What are you talking about? Amazon is extremely obsessed with customer satisfaction.

This thread is about ARK's valuation model for TSLA. Please stay on topic. If you want to discuss something else, do it in another thread.

 

[mblakele]

ARK just tweeted
https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-valuation-model?
......We have updated and now are open-sourcing that extract with the following conclusions. Even if full autonomy turns out to be “science fiction” and Tesla cannot produce an autonomous car, ARK estimates that the electric vehicle opportunity alone would boost its stock 2-6 fold from $195 today to $560-$1,200 by 2023. If Tesla does solve for full autonomy, however, and its electric vehicle (EV) production surpasses our bear case estimates, TSLA could scale significantly higher than our previous $4,000* price target during the next five years, thanks to our newly introduced bull case for electric vehicle volumes.....”

I'm quoting you in this ARK-specific thread to try to shift discussion out of the roundtable thread. It's an experiment

Do you suppose separating the model into "bear" and "bull" cases was another jab at Adam Jonas?

 

[Solar Aussie]

You could request that in the github repo: TashaARK/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

I like the idea of a valuation model with its own issue tracker....

I prefer it in the original thread. It is not a separate issue

 

[Solar Aussie]

I think this deserves its own thread:

Tesla Valuation Model: Are Investors Stuck in Reverse?

TashaARK/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

Last August, we wrote an open letter to Elon Musk and Tesla’s Board of Directors with an extract from our Tesla valuation model that communicated why privatizing Tesla at $420 per share would deprive shareholders, many of whom have supported the company for years, of significant returns. We believed then, and even more so now, that TSLA will deliver significant returns during the next five years.

We have updated and now are open-sourcing that extract with the following conclusions. Even if full autonomy turns out to be “science fiction” and Tesla cannot produce an autonomous car, ARK estimates that the electric vehicle opportunity alone would boost its stock 2-6 fold from $195 today to $560-$1,200 by 2023. If Tesla does solve for full autonomy, however, and its electric vehicle (EV) production surpasses our bear case estimates, TSLA could scale significantly higher than our previous $4,000* price target during the next five years, thanks to our newly introduced bull case for electric vehicle volumes.

To foster informed and healthy debate, we have published our Tesla valuation model with explanations on Github at the link here. Feel free to change the relevant variables to battle test both the bearish and the bullish investment cases. We will welcome all questions and constructive criticism and feedback.​

Keep this in the Roundtable please