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Article: BMW’s new head of R&D says next i model not due until 2020

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No electric car is going to beat the M5 soon. Maybe in acceleration, but not as a sports car that can go 250-300km/h for some time.
The prevalence of comments like this leads me to suppose that the German big three's sales are still predominantly in Germany and neighboring countries, since 250-300km/h is simply irrelevant for actual driving in most of the rest of the world. (It's not irrelevant for bragging rights I suppose, but I would imagine that to be a relatively minor purchasing factor for most people.) Is that right, that BMW et al are building vehicles primarily for the Autobahn for reasons dictated by their market, and competing in other markets (North America for example) is strictly an afterthought?

I'm sure I could go look up market shares and whatnot, but I bet there's someone reading this thread who knows off the top of their head if my assumption is right.
 
No electric car is going to beat the M5 soon. Maybe in acceleration, but not as a sports car that can go 250-300km/h for some time. Even the Koenigsegg Regera is a Hybrid.

Is that the same as nobody will be able to produce a compelling electric car that goes more than a handful of miles on one charge and therefore can be easily used for long distance travel, doesn't take a week to charge, and doesn't look like a golf cart?

You be sure to hang onto that M5 belief all the way to the ICE graveyard.
 
Correct on all accounts. Even though I have seen a few Model S over here, but 90% of those were test drive vehicles of our Frankfurt Tesla store.
I think even Tesla underestimated the challenges of the European markets (other than the heavily subsidized Norway and Netherlands), and Germany in particular.

I don't think BMW sees Tesla as a threat at all, at least not on the grand scale.
Let us try and be realistic for a moment:
Where do BEVs sell (reasonably) well at the moment? Only in markets where there are massive subsidies. In most markets the BEV segment is miniscule.
Who at the moment can realistically afford a Model S? With naked starting prices well above even many well equipped Mercs, Audis, Lexus's and BMWs?

Even if one wants a BEV, at least over here there are much better choices than a Tesla, at least until Model 3 arrives. As Spidy said, commutes are generally quite short for most people, in many areas people use public transport, so a BEV has to be either cheaper or more practical to be a viable alternative. An 80K+ Euro car the size of an S-class doesn't fit that description.
And for those who buy a luxury car like a large Merc/Audi/Lexus/BMW because they travel long distances on a regular basis, like travelling salesmen who make up a large percentage of the left lane traffic on the Autobahn, a BEV is not an attractive alternative anyway, as they are in a constant hurry and don't have the time or the nerves to plan their trips around charging locations plus lose time for charging.

So no, I don't think the big automakers will have to worry about Tesla or BEVs becoming a threat for a very long time to come. Sales numbers speak for themselves.
The picture will look different when there are BEVs with 500 mile realistic range available for under 50K Euro/Dollar. But is that realistic before 2020 - even from Tesla? I dare say no (even though I would hope otherwise).

Certainly here in the San Francisco bay area (admittedly the home of Tesla) BMW and Mercedes are under strong competitive threat. Tesla outsells both of them at the high end. That has to make them at least somewhat nervous. They can't just write off a lucrative market like that. Sure right now 3 series, C class and A4 sales are much larger, but when Tesla releases the Model 3 that may not be true any more.
 
My impression of the German market is that it is very protective of its domestic brands. There were close to no plug-in incentives until after the German plug-ins came out, and other non-German EVs haven't been doing that well in that market either. So I don't expect Tesla to get very far in that market.
 
Those speeds are largely irrelevant even in Germany. Not all push their cars over 200 on AB, nominal speeds are around 160.
It just for bragging...

True. But most Germans who are willing and able to spend 100k on a sedan, want to have the option to go 200-250 km/h from time to time when they're on a hurry or stressed. Most German premium brand luxury sedans can go 250 km/h (electronically limited top speed for many premium sedans from BMW, MB, Audi). Thus, the increase of top speed of 85D and P85D to 250 km/h is certainly important for the German market. As to the 300 km/h...it's only a tiny fraction of the above mentioned customers who actually want to go that fast with a sedan. If you're in this customer segment and you want to race at night with 300 km/h, you pull your 2-seater sports car out of the garage.
 
Those speeds are irrelevant to the vast majority of car buyers everywhere except Germany.

Agree. That would still be the reason why BMW could still sell the M5 with pride though. It would be a superior track car and flat out full speed autobahn car for the less than 1% of world population that can use that capability. The i5 would then fill the other role of insane acceleration and cheap to fuel performance.
 
Yes I really do believe so. Note that this pertains to demand and that the actual shifting out of the entire fleet of personal cars will take quite some time, since the life cycle of cars are long and since it's a high capital investment for people. Electric cars are at this moment at the tipping point and in just 2-3 years we will be beyond the tipping point. What right now looks like slow, gradual, linear growth in demand and uptake is actually the bottom part of an exponential curve, but this is both hard to recognize early as well as hard for us humans to conceptualize (humans in general have a hard time grasping phenomena with exponential growth patterns, we like to think in linear terms intuitively).

You argument is very similar to how people historically have argued when it comes to smart phones, internet for personal use, ICE cars (100 years ago), personal computers, TV etc. etc: "Sure it's a new technology, it's good, it's useful, it's better than what we have today but the uptake will be slow and gradual, it will takes decades before it becomes mainstream". Therein lies the fallacy.

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(from The Law of Accelerating Returns | KurzweilAI).

With EVs we also have a perfect storm forming: Global warming is a huge problem and EVs are part of the solution, large parts of the world's population (Asia, India, Africa) are experiencing unprecedented growth in income and quality of life and the personal transportatino market globally has enormous potential. All the while battery prices are coming down every year and production is increased, with it comes economies of scale that drives prices further down.

Believe me, I would be the happiest person in the world should your predictions become a reality!

But even though I can understand your enthusiasm, and I know that adoption curve well either, I don't think you can compare the use of mobile phones or the internet with BEVs. Why? Cost, simple as that. Mobile phone prices as well as costs for internet use have imploded in a very short time, making is viable for even the poorest parts of the population to use. I know lots of people who lament about high food prices, yet they all have mobile phones and internet, because both are almost free.
BEVs are not only hideously expensive at the moment, they have also not been getting cheaper each year, as had been predicted because it was said that cheaper batteries would make for cheaper BEVs. Look at the Model S as a prime example, it is getting more expensive every year. Look at the discussions about Model 3 pricing, whether it will truly make the 35K mark that Elon had given out as his goal. And even if, 35K (for a naked base model in particular) is still above and beyond what the majority of car buyers can afford.

For an exponential adoption curve to happen, especially if we compare BEVs to mobile phones or the internet, prices would have to come down significantly every year. Not happening, not even remotely, as least for now. And there is no miracle battery tech even on the horizon to make BEVs more affordable. Elon himself has often made comments about claims by others who said they had some revolutional new battery coming.

Electric cars are at this moment at the tipping point

What tipping point? Perhaps in Norway, but where else? Where in the world, apart from in countries that heavily subsidize BEVs, are sales anywhere near "tipping point", or even public awareness for BEVs?

Again, I truly hope BEVs will one day make up the overwhelming majority of vehicles on the streets (especially as we live next to a through-road with lots of traffic), but if I look realistically at most markets, and Germany in particular, I think it will take at least until I am retired (which will be several decades from now).

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If you think electricity is expensive in Europe, wait until you see the bill at the gas station....

True, but if you look at the development over the past few years, then (at least here in Germany) electricity prices have exploded while gas/diesel has become only slightly more expensive than it already was. And electricity prices will continue to rise sharply over the coming years, at least for us thanks to special effects in the German alternative energy subsidy system, while the trend for gas/diesel is uncertain at the moment.

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The prevalence of comments like this leads me to suppose that the German big three's sales are still predominantly in Germany and neighboring countries, since 250-300km/h is simply irrelevant for actual driving in most of the rest of the world. (It's not irrelevant for bragging rights I suppose, but I would imagine that to be a relatively minor purchasing factor for most people.) Is that right, that BMW et al are building vehicles primarily for the Autobahn for reasons dictated by their market, and competing in other markets (North America for example) is strictly an afterthought?

I'm sure I could go look up market shares and whatnot, but I bet there's someone reading this thread who knows off the top of their head if my assumption is right.

I think Spidy was exaggerating a bit, but what he surely meant was that BEVs at the moment aren't able to sustain longer stretches of higher speeds, say 70+ mph without draining the battery incredibly fast, while ICEs, even powerful ones, have become so fuel efficient over the years that they can.

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My impression of the German market is that it is very protective of its domestic brands. There were close to no plug-in incentives until after the German plug-ins came out, and other non-German EVs haven't been doing that well in that market either. So I don't expect Tesla to get very far in that market.

Just for the record, there are still no real plug-in incentives over here, and the only one that exists will be halved from next year onwards. So even German-made plug-ins are given a hard time by the German government - even though they say otherwise (which no one believes anyway).
 
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I'm surprised that BMW issued that statement considering the sheer variety of models they offer these days. Have you seen how many models they have now compared to 5 or 10 years ago???

BMW and MB are like Taco Bell now.

Out of a handful of basic ingredients they mix and match to create an extensive menu.

The only thing that really changes is roofs and quarter panels.
 
Believe me, I would be the happiest person in the world should your predictions become a reality!

But even though I can understand your enthusiasm, and I know that adoption curve well either, I don't think you can compare the use of mobile phones or the internet with BEVs. Why? Cost, simple as that. Mobile phone prices as well as costs for internet use have imploded in a very short time, making is viable for even the poorest parts of the population to use. I know lots of people who lament about high food prices, yet they all have mobile phones and internet, because both are almost free.
BEVs are not only hideously expensive at the moment, they have also not been getting cheaper each year, as had been predicted because it was said that cheaper batteries would make for cheaper BEVs. Look at the Model S as a prime example, it is getting more expensive every year. Look at the discussions about Model 3 pricing, whether it will truly make the 35K mark that Elon had given out as his goal. And even if, 35K (for a naked base model in particular) is still above and beyond what the majority of car buyers can afford.
You have to distinguish between *cost* and *price*. The latter has increased, the former has not. When the Model S was launched, Tesla had close to zero profit margin on each car sold. Now they have around 30%. That's a different way of saying the cost has dropped by 30%. (Of course, minus the price increases.) A base 85 kWh Model S was priced at USD77,400 i 2012, now it's priced at USD81,070. With improvements from 0% margin to 30% margin, that means the Model S has dropped in cost from USD77,400 to USD56,750 over the past 3 years.

That Tesla has chosen to take those cost reductions and invest them into the Gigafactory and Model 3 is a bit beside the point. If Tesla had available any amount of batteries they could desire, they would almost certainly cut pricing and do everything they could to increase demand.

For an exponential adoption curve to happen, especially if we compare BEVs to mobile phones or the internet, prices would have to come down significantly every year. Not happening, not even remotely, as least for now. And there is no miracle battery tech even on the horizon to make BEVs more affordable. Elon himself has often made comments about claims by others who said they had some revolutional new battery coming.
All we need is slow and steady improvements every year. And that's what we are seeing. Three years ago there were basically three non-compliance car EVs on the market; the Model S, Leaf, and i-MiEV. Today, we have the e-Golf, e-Up, Zoe, Leaf, Soul, Model S, i3, etc. At the same time, pricing has dropped significantly, for instance, an i-MiEV has about halved in price.

What tipping point? Perhaps in Norway, but where else? Where in the world, apart from in countries that heavily subsidize BEVs, are sales anywhere near "tipping point", or even public awareness for BEVs?
We are approaching a tipping point where BEVs will achive lifecycle cost parity with fossil cars. The only thing that will put a damper on this party is that the battery production capacity won't be able to ramp up as fast as demand for the overseeable future. Tesla is planning on selling 500k BEVs in 2020 - but the road to 100M BEVs is long. Assuming a doubling every 5 years, from 1M in 2020, we'll be looking at something like 30-35 years. Maybe the switch could happen faster, but we're at least talking about 2040ish before BEVs will start to approach 100% market share.
 
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Look at the Model S as a prime example, it is getting more expensive every year. Look at the discussions about Model 3 pricing, whether it will truly make the 35K mark that Elon had given out as his goal. And even if, 35K (for a naked base model in particular) is still above and beyond what the majority of car buyers can afford.

The base Model S 60 has had a base price of $69.9k in the US since January 2013.

And there have been standard upgrades since then.

Also more added cost options which have raised the ASP.

But the base Model S is better for the same money since January 2013.

Outside the US prices have risen and fallen due to currency exchange fluctuations.

In the US, the Average Selling Price for a new 2014 car was $32,342.


The Base Model $35k Model 3 will likely be no more naked than a base Model S 60.

At least 200 mile EPA range, "auto" transmission, AC, heat, large touchscreen infotainment system HVAC controls, keyless entry,power windows,power locks, and best in class 0-60 acceleration.

Yes, if you want high fidelity sound system, big alloy wheels/tires, pano roof,leather Recaro seats, alcantara dash and trim, wood trim, adjustable smart air suspension,tech package,special paint job,bigger battery with more powerful motor/ inverter, AWD, performance tuned suspension etc that will be more money. Supercharger Access(unlimited fuel for life) will also likely be more money.

Like the Model S 60 the base Model 3 will be more than sufficient transportation for the average American and more so the average European. Like every car on the market, you want cooler faster more luxurious then that will be more money.
 
@AustinPowers: Yggdrasil did a very good just replying the way I would have. I would also stress very much this point: EVs only have to become as cheap or cheaper than ICE in a life-time perspective (buying cost + cost of fuel + cost of maintenance) to reach cost parity. People are not stupid and will soon enough understand this. The other factor is useability i.e. range, to some extent top spedd (only relevant for Germany?) and charging network and solutions. My point is that if we're not at the tipping point as we speak we will be very, very shortly. And when we are there is no stopping EVs. It will most certainly not take "many decades".
 
That Tesla has chosen to take those cost reductions and invest them into the Gigafactory and Model 3 is a bit beside the point. If Tesla had available any amount of batteries they could desire, they would almost certainly cut pricing and do everything they could to increase demand.

Ok, I didn't know about those 30%. Fair point. But as to whether they would cut pricing to increase demand, we can only hope for it when Model 3 arrives.

All we need is slow and steady improvements every year. And that's what we are seeing. Three years ago there were basically three non-compliance car EVs on the market; the Model S, Leaf, and i-MiEV. Today, we have the e-Golf, e-Up, Zoe, Leaf, Soul, Model S, i3, etc. At the same time, pricing has dropped significantly, for instance, an i-MiEV has about halved in price.

Ok, over here it has been a reduction of about a third. Which is still impressive. Lets hope the e-Golf / Zoe / i3 price will drop by the same margin over the next few years. I would be very happy if that happened, yet I remain sceptical.

We are approaching a tipping point where BEVs will achive lifecycle cost parity with fossil cars. The only thing that will put a damper on this party is that the battery production capacity won't be able to ramp up as fast as demand for the overseeable future. Tesla is planning on selling 500k BEVs in 2020 - but the road to 100M BEVs is long. Assuming a doubling every 5 years, from 1M in 2020, we'll be looking at something like 30-35 years. Maybe the switch could happen faster, but we're at least talking about 2040ish before BEVs will start to approach 100% market share.

Now that is the timespan I was thinking about as well and what I tried to convey to Johan. It will take decades. And in that amount of time, I am sure all major automakers will have brought many compelling BEVs to market.

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@AustinPowers: Yggdrasil did a very good just replying the way I would have.
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It will most certainly not take "many decades".

But Yggdrasil said exactly that, didn't he? Ok, "2040ish" is not "many" decades, "only" three, but still a hell of a long time.

And I very much agree with you about the cost parity argument. It is in fact one of the reasons why I don't see BEVs anywhere near tipping point.
If I do the math for an e-Golf vs. 2.0 TDI BlueMotion for example, it will take me more than the car's lifetime to just break even, let alone get the e-Golf to be cheaper.
 
Knowing that the car industry moves more slowly than the tech industry, another perspective on cost that might be helpful is to look at Roadster pricing compared to Model S pricing. The car that I drive, a Roadster Sport 2.5 (#969) had a sticker price of $146,250. That included important upgrades (Sport package, nav/sound), but missed out on some carbon fiber doodads. I believe it was possible to "load up" a Roadster and get it into the $160-180k range. My car was built in June of 2011, with the original Roadster v1.5 starting with a base sticker price in the ~$100k range and being built in 2008.

I just went by the Design Studio and designed the most expensive Model S that I could (there might be a more expensive configuration, but this was as high as I could go in a few minutes of poking around). Fully loaded P85D for $132k before incentives.


That gets me a car with way more acceleration, better handling in some circumstances due to the AWD, and 85 kWh of battery electric storage vs. 53 kWh in the Roadster (approximately equal weight and numbers of cells). Oh - and it seats 4 or 5 comfortably, 7 with the rear facing seats (I didn't include those). For almost every circumstance, the Model S is clearly the more pragmatic and usable car. And somewhere between $10k and $50k cheaper than a fully loaded earlier car, the Roadster.n

In the 7 years between first Roadster and first P85D, or 4 years between my Roadster and Model S P85D was built, I can't spend as much as my mostly on a fully loaded Model S, even if I wanted to.

There are clearly good economic reasons for the difference - the Roadster was a low volume car, just barely a step beyond hand built (something like 5-10 cars built each week?). Sports cars are more expensive due to their low volume and specialized demand. But the Model S is also cheaper because of technology improvements.


It would be nice if we could make use of comparisons from outside of Tesla's models, but I don't see anybody that is consciously putting themselves on a serious roadmap of cost reductions the way Tesla is. Tesla isn't just building Model S right now - they're also investing today to bring the next wave of cost reductions to market.

That longer term perspective is what gives me confidence in where Tesla is heading and why. Agreed that the car industry moves slower, but that's not good news for those that aren't moving yet - it's bad news. There won't be a 1 year "oops - let's go catch up" cycle for them. Tesla has been working on their 2018 volume proposition for 6 months or a year, where it looks to me like the competition is still figuring out what they can build 1's of in 2018 that will be competitive. The fact that the industry moves slow is going to work to the detriment of the companies that aren't moving at Tesla's pace.
 
Ok, I didn't know about those 30%. Fair point. But as to whether they would cut pricing to increase demand, we can only hope for it when Model 3 arrives.
Margins for the Model 3 will definitely be lower, at least the first few years.

Ok, over here it has been a reduction of about a third. Which is still impressive. Lets hope the e-Golf / Zoe / i3 price will drop by the same margin over the next few years. I would be very happy if that happened, yet I remain sceptical.
In the short term, I think it's more likely that the cost reductions will be taken out in increasing the utility of the cars. Larger batteries, first and foremost. Possibly this will be combined with some price reductions.

Now that is the timespan I was thinking about as well and what I tried to convey to Johan. It will take decades. And in that amount of time, I am sure all major automakers will have brought many compelling BEVs to market.
That a 100% market share for BEVs is 25+ years away isn't a good reason for sitting around twiddling ones thumbs for 5 years. Tesla, Nissan and GM are all planning affordable long-range family BEVs for 2017. When the i5 is launched three years later, the competition will have a massive head start.

And just consider the supercharger network! 5 years is a lot of time to expand the supercharger network, especially considering that Europe will be pretty much covered in 2016. BMW on the other hand will have no BEV with the need for high power charging until 2020, and it's unlikely they will build out a charging network that they won't need for years. That's one competitive edge BMW should not take lightly.