Article: "Elon Musk’s ‘BFR’ and 21st-century space war"

[ecarfan]

Interesting analysis of how the BFR could effect the militarization of space Elon Musk’s ‘BFR’ and 21st-century space war

Some space-based military activities are currently prohibited by treaty ---- see Outer Space Treaty - Wikipedia -- but many such activities are not prohibited. China has not ratified the treaty, as near as I can tell.

I do not know if the US could force SpaceX to allow the BFR to be used for military missions if SpaceX didn't want it to be used for such purposes. Of course SpaceX has already launched missions for the US military, I am aware of that. But the BFR could conceivably enable military missions of a type and scale that SpaceX might not wish to participate in.

In the future SpaceX will be faced with many challenges when dealing with the US government. Right now Elon is doing a delicate dance with NASA by publicly proclaiming a very aggressive timeline for landing the first humans on Mars, far ahead of NASA's own plans, while also needing to do business with NASA for ISS missions, business that brings in needed revenue and helps SpaceX develop its technological capabilities.

The development of the BFR is going to bring a whole new set of challenges for SpaceX when it comes to dealing with the US government.

 

[Joerg]

You are absolutely right. Big impact. Even last year, with the first version of the BFR and settlement plans, the first thing coming to my mind was: what the heck, I don’t want “nations” over there! Is it another state, another country, or just ‘humans’ dwelling on mars? Guranteed, once BFR would work, there would be one big question how to handle this. Another race to mars, like the race to moon back in the 60’s?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Space militarization and conflict is inevitable.

I believe the future will look most like the SyFy tv series “The Expanse”, where space colonization and life in space is every bit as savage and brutal as the colonization of the Americas.

 

[ecarfan]

I believe the future will look most like the SyFy tv series “The Expanse”, where space colonization and life in space is every bit as savage and brutal as the colonization of the Americas.

Hopefully without the enslavement of humans for forced labor. At least the genocide of native peoples will be avoided because...there are no native peoples on Mars.

I'm a bit more optimistic than you (I have watched The Expanse). Yes, there will be conflicts but the long path of human history suggests that we are slowly maturing as a species and armed conflict is decreasing, as Steven Pinker's very interesting analysis has shown. Here's some commentary on it The Decline of Violence

The establishment of a permanent self-sustaining colony on Mars will take several centuries but it offers the possibility of a new start for humanity, one at least partially freed of existing tribal affiliations (a nation is just a big tribe). I prefer to take the glass half full approach. I only wish I was much younger so I could participate in the process.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Space militarization and conflict is inevitable.

I believe the future will look most like the SyFy tv series “The Expanse”, where space colonization and life in space is every bit as savage and brutal as the colonization of the Americas.

I haven’t watched “The Expanse”, but my take on a lot of TV/Movies, etc.. is that they tend to glorify and emphasize the conflict part. Mainly since, if the plot line was about cooperation in space and peaceful progress, no one would watch it.

I tend to lean with @ecarfan on this one. Space is hard. While human nature is often brutal, the reality of nature/space and exploration will often bring people together in a common mission.

 

[e-FTW]

and implies that any military conflict in space would see one side seek to degrade deployed satellites, while their opponents race to replace lost capability. Here the advantage would go to the side which can have the greatest frequency of launches.

This reminds me of the Liberty ships that the US built during WWII. They were designed to be built very quickly (and basically expendable) and meant to defeat the German U-boat attacks through sheer numbers: they were building a liberty ships faster than the Germans could sink them.

 

[GoTslaGo]

This reminds me of the Liberty ships that the US built during WWII. They were designed to be built very quickly (and basically expendable) and meant to defeat the German U-boat attacks through sheer numbers: they were building a liberty ships faster than the Germans could sink them.

Off topic, but your comment on the Liberty Ships reminded me of something. I once watched a documentary about the Liberty Ships, and learned that they directly led to one of the largest healthcare systems:

Kaiser Shipyards - Wikipedia

Kaiser Permanente - Wikipedia

 

[ecarfan]

Space is hard. While human nature is often brutal, the reality of nature/space and exploration will often bring people together in a common mission.

Nicely put. Living on Mars is going to require a very high level of cooperation and an appreciation of the risks, which will be shared by everyone. Everyone will be extremely dependent on everyone else doing their job and following the rules and procedures necessary to exist in a hostile environment. No one will care about the color of someone's skin or the politics of the country they came from, that will all seem very distant and fundamentally irrelevant to the challenges that will have to be faced and dealt with every single day.

All of that will create the strong social bonds that will be needed for the colony to survive.

 

[Chet]

Hopefully without the enslavement of humans for forced labor. At least the genocide of native peoples will be avoided because...there are no native peoples on Mars.

I'm a bit more optimistic than you (I have watched The Expanse). Yes, there will be conflicts but the long path of human history suggests that we are slowly maturing as a species and armed conflict is decreasing, as Steven Pinker's very interesting analysis has shown. Here's some commentary on it The Decline of Violence

The establishment of a permanent self-sustaining colony on Mars will take several centuries but it offers the possibility of a new start for humanity, one at least partially freed of existing tribal affiliations (a nation is just a big tribe). I prefer to take the glass half full approach. I only wish I was much younger so I could participate in the process.

I think it is a dead-end waste of resources needed here on earth, now.

 

[Grendal]

I think it is a dead-end waste of resources needed here on earth, now.

Resources like what? Humans? There are seven billion people on the planet and growing daily. Most of the resources will come from Mars itself.

Here are just some of the technologies created from the research developed by NASA and exploration of space:

NASA Spinoff 2017

You can also go back through the previous 50+ years to learn the history of what has helped our day to day lives.

 

[Yuri_G]

Resources like what? Humans? There are seven billion people on the planet and growing daily. Most of the resources will come from Mars itself.

Here are just some of the technologies created from the research developed by NASA and exploration of space:

NASA Spinoff 2017

You can also go back through the previous 50+ years to learn the history of what has helped our day to day lives.

Hell, parts of the Model S and X have been refined with the help of SpaceX engineers. Talk about not seeing the forest from the trees.

 

[e-FTW]

Nicely put. Living on Mars is going to require a very high level of cooperation and an appreciation of the risks, which will be shared by everyone. Everyone will be extremely dependent on everyone else doing their job and following the rules and procedures necessary to exist in a hostile environment. No one will care about the color of someone's skin or the politics of the country they came from, that will all seem very distant and fundamentally irrelevant to the challenges that will have to be faced and dealt with every single day.

All of that will create the strong social bonds that will be needed for the colony to survive.

Am an optimist like yourself. Although reading about our colonial history, I cannot help but at least have a few cautionary tales in mind.

 

[ecarfan]

Am an optimist like yourself. Although reading about our colonial history, I cannot help but at least have a few cautionary tales in mind.

Which is why history is worth studying. The better to avoid the follies of the past.

 

[EchoDelta]

I think it is a dead-end waste of resources needed here on earth, now.

Ah, I was about to comment on the stance, but I recalled I already did.
Waste? Your comment in my mind would be way more at home on this article. I'm not saying you're wrong that there is waste, rather I'm surprised at where you aim *first* to reduce it. Imagine 60B going to de-carbonizing energy sources and restoring environments, every year. And that's just handbags! (Nothing against handbags per se, that was just a conveniently googleable article on yearly spend on lux goods)

Here's an exercise for folks with opinions of the portfolio allocation of humanity's spend: Look at the global spend patterns. Normalize it to a household income. Now try to proportionally map the amounts to everyday categories, and look at it as a yearly budget...

How much does this house spend on guns? food? education? health of the elderly? Water? Electricity? fashionable and luxury goods? Drugs unsustainable, predatory and outright immoral businesses? I think you'll find taking away from space exploration is taking away that 0.01% of spend in the future that has multiple positive spin-offs today, without looking at other areas first, sounds strange. I truly recommend the effort, what I learned on how even to frame the right questions and measurements last time I did some years ago it was helpful to me.

 

[N5329K]

Space militarization and conflict is inevitable.
And possibly the answer to the Fermi Paradox.
Robin

 

[ecarfan]

Space militarization and conflict is inevitable.
And possibly the answer to the Fermi Paradox.
Robin

Yes. A disturbing thought...

 

[EchoDelta]

Not that disturbing and expectable if it’s what it takes to break from earths current traditional governance systems which are the source of most conflict.
Yes disturbing if it turns out to be the underestimated factor in the Fermi paradox.

 

[ecarfan]

In my opinion, human "governance systems" that promote tribalism (in the form of nationalism) and conflict simply reflect innate human behaviors. I am cautiously optimistic that a Mars colony would be able to transcend those behaviors to a certain degree. But it will be difficult.