Article: Why the Tesla Semi will transform the trucking industry in North America

I wrote this article on my blog:

Why the Tesla Semi will transform the trucking industry in North America​

I did a couple calculations about how the Tesla Semi compares with competing electric class 8 trucks that will be sold in North America:

I would be curious to know what people think of my calculations and my analysis of the Semi's advantages over the competition.

 

[VIKING26]

Great breakdown. Even if your estimates are slightly off here or there it has to have the competition rethinking their product. That mi range / minute charge number is crazy.

 

[Watts_Up]

It would be interesting to compare the Tesla Semi to Diesel Semi trucks for long distances intercities driving.

The table above shows only EV trucks designed for local deliveries, except may be the Nicola one.

 

[Electric700]

Thank you! I saw that diesel semi trucks cost from $0.75 to $1.00 per mile or more. The Tesla Semi makes a lot of sense not just cost-wise at $0.231 per mile but in several other ways too such as zero emissions, it's much quieter, safer and gives you simpler maintenance. I'm impressed with it

 

[scottf200]

I wrote this article on my blog:

Why the Tesla Semi will transform the trucking industry in North America​

I did a couple calculations about how the Tesla Semi compares with competing electric class 8 trucks that will be sold in North America:
I would be curious to know what people think of my calculations and my analysis of the Semi's advantages over the competition.

Great effort on that table.

There is a lot of misleading analysis since there are two types of trucks: "While definitions vary regarding what exactly counts as long-haul and short-haul driving, generally routes that involve a 200-mile radius or less should be considered short-haul, whereas anything over 250 miles is considered long-haul driving."

Battery size is a major differentiator.

FYI, looks like Volvo is showing 1.77 kWh/mi
Article: Volvo’s heavy-duty electric truck is put to the test: excels in both range and energy efficiency
Google simply conversion: https://www.google.com/search?q=1.1+kWh%2Fkm+in+kWh%2Fmi

 

[ThomasD]

Could the cost of the Mega chargers that are needed to charge the Tesla Semis be a deterrent to the Semi's purchase?

 

[Watts_Up]

Could the cost of the Mega chargers that are needed to charge the Tesla Semis be a deterrent to the Semi's purchase?

The #1 cost is the driver, any other additional cost is just tax deductable.
You know, companies don't want to pay taxes and prefer invest in new products.
Beside, a Semi will be low maintenance, basically only a set of new tires, like every six months.

 

[Operator64]

Great effort on that table.

There is a lot of misleading analysis since there are two types of trucks: "While definitions vary regarding what exactly counts as long-haul and short-haul driving, generally routes that involve a 200-mile radius or less should be considered short-haul, whereas anything over 250 miles is considered long-haul driving."

Battery size is a major differentiator.

FYI, looks like Volvo is showing 1.77 kWh/mi
Article: Volvo’s heavy-duty electric truck is put to the test: excels in both range and energy efficiency
Google simply conversion: https://www.google.com/search?q=1.1+kWh%2Fkm+in+kWh%2Fmi

1.77 kWh/mi is on the FH model truck which will not be produced or imported to USA the VNR would be the comparison for US

 

[Watts_Up]

I wrote this article on my blog:

Why the Tesla Semi will transform the trucking industry in North America​

I did a couple calculations about how the Tesla Semi compares with competing electric class 8 trucks that will be sold in North America:

I would be curious to know what people think of my calculations and my analysis of the Semi's advantages over the competition.

-> Nikola TRE BEV ... Top Speed (mph): 75 ...... [According to Nikola, 36 mph at 6% grade]

Is it just a guess or is there a real formula that can be used to determine the Max speed on flat surface from a speed on an inclined surface?

- For the Max speed on inclined surface, the Max speed could be estimated using the total weight and the motor max power.
- For the Max speed on flat surface, the Max speed could be estimated using the Cd (Drag coefficient) and the motor max power.


Note: And also for Nikola, in which direction the truck was going on the inclined surface...

 

[Operator64]

-> Nikola TRE BEV ... Top Speed (mph): 75 ...... [According to Nikola, 36 mph at 6% grade]

Is it just a guess or is there a real formula that can be used to determine the Max speed on flat surface from a speed on an inclined surface?

- For the Max speed on inclined surface, the Max speed could be estimated using the total weight and the motor max power.
- For the Max speed on flat surface, the Max speed could be estimated using the Cd (Drag coefficient) and the motor max power.


Note: And also for Nikola, in which direction the truck was going on the inclined surface...

Never heard of a calculation that would determine a speed at any grade, way too many variables to determine, weight, temperature, elevation, cetane level of fuel if working with Ice trucks.

 

[Watts_Up]

Never heard of a calculation that would determine a speed at any grade, way too many variables to determine, weight, temperature, elevation, cetane level of fuel if working with Ice trucks.

That was my point. The above mentioned article didn't have too much valid content.

The San Francisco to San Diego loaded trip will be a good benchmark for future comparisons.

 

[bradtem]

The cost per mile is a difficulit one. You have done it using a price of 13.5 cents/kWh, the national average. However, there is no DC fast charger I am aware of that is remotely close to that price. Tesla Superchargers recently came down in price but typically range from 28 to 45 cents, but these are at best 250kW chargers. Megawatt chargers can't help but cost more, a lot more.

At 50 cents/kWh you would pay 85 cents/mile for electricity. A modern diesel semi is required since 2014 to get at least 7.2 mpg, and at $5/gallon that's only 70 cents/mile. Some get better. The Tesla Semi needs below 41 cents/kWh to break even with diesel.

This means the Tesla semi and other electric trucks are going to need to source much cheaper electricity. That's a tall order. If they imagine pulling a megawatt between 3pm and 9pm, it's not going to happen.

A single operator can drive only 11 hours/day. So that does allow slower charging. In the 13 off-hours it could refill at 70kW, but in practice it will not go from 0 to 100, so for most refills good old 50kW will do for that recharge. However, in 11 hours it will drive more than 500 miles, so it will need one fast stop during the day, and a slower stop while the driver sleeps.

But even 50kW much below 40 cents is not easy to find today. Truckers will need to find a network of charging locations which can deliver that price on a large contract. The megawatt mid-day will cost more. The Tesla semi does not have a bed or 2nd chair for a team driver, but it could be modified for that perhaps. Then they will need to use megawatt charging all the time, but that's going to cost more than diesel.

The issue with the megawatt is that high power hookups are priced based on your max watts for a 15 minute period. You want to charge a truck or two you are going to pay a high price for your hookup. Enough solar to do that for the trucks that want to charge mid-day would be a major install. Enough battery to store the solar for later trucks a huge price. (Perhaps some day we will see truck stops at solar farms, but the drivers don't want to sleep during the day.)

On the other hand, the Tesla semi should need a fair bit less maintenance than the diesel truck to lower that cost.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla Superchargers recently came down in price but typically range from 28 to 45 cents, but these are at best 250kW chargers. Megawatt chargers can't help but cost more, a lot more.

You are completely missing that the initial purchasers aren't going to be charging at third party sites. They are installing charging at their sites, likely with Megapacks for peak shaving for their entire factory, and will be paying wholesale prices for electricity. They might even end up lowering their electric bill.

 

[AMPd]

You are completely missing that the initial purchasers aren't going to be charging at third party sites. They are installing charging at their sites, likely with Megapacks for peak shaving for their entire factory, and will be paying wholesale prices for electricity. They might even end up lowering their electric bill.

The initial purchaser is also getting all these trucks for free. So their cost is definitely going to be lower than regular companies.

 

[EVDeepDive]

This is all good, but unless battery ingredients and supply chains for EVs become sustainable in the near future, this is unlikely to upend the entire trucking industry.

 

[bradtem]

The initial purchaser is also getting all these trucks for free. So their cost is definitely going to be lower than regular companies.

How for free? But if the truck is only economical for runs between your own depots, it's useful but not quite as game changing

 

[DrChaos]

Great effort on that table.

There is a lot of misleading analysis since there are two types of trucks: "While definitions vary regarding what exactly counts as long-haul and short-haul driving, generally routes that involve a 200-mile radius or less should be considered short-haul, whereas anything over 250 miles is considered long-haul driving."

Battery size is a major differentiator.

FYI, looks like Volvo is showing 1.77 kWh/mi
Article: Volvo’s heavy-duty electric truck is put to the test: excels in both range and energy efficiency
Google simply conversion: https://www.google.com/search?q=1.1+kWh%2Fkm+in+kWh%2Fmi

The Volvo is the only one that looks competitive. And has about half the battery and range, and 2/3rds the power. Presumably adding more battery mass would lower efficiency a little bit (but not that much given how heavy trucks are anyway).

We don't know what the load capacity of it is, but it has only one axle of drive wheels vs two in the Tesla.

 

[AMPd]

How for free? But if the truck is only economical for runs between your own depots, it's useful but not quite as game changing

The state of California gave Pepsi a 15.4 million dollar grant to purchase these semi trucks.

 

[bradtem]

The state of California gave Pepsi a 15.4 million dollar grant to purchase these semi trucks.

Ah that sure is nice of it. But presumably real customers have placed orders?

 

[Watts_Up]

The state of California gave Pepsi a 15.4 million dollar grant to purchase these semi trucks.

To give some perspective:

Governor Newsom Bolsters Homekey Funding by $150 Million as State Reaches Milestone of 10,000 New Homeless Housing Units | California Governor

Video: Governor Newsom highlights Homekey’s progress, previews additional $150 million investment Since Homekey’s inception in 2020, the program has awarded funding for 10,000…

www.gov.ca.gov

Governor Newsom also announced $166 million in awards for seven new Homekey projects throughout the state. ​

When fully operational, today’s approved projects will provide 523 housing units for people experiencing, ​

or at risk of experiencing, homelessness. ​

Since the announcement of Governor Newsom’s $2.75 billion extension of Homekey last year, ​

the state has approved 68 projects that will create more than 4,000 housing units for unhoused Californians, ​

for a total allocation of $1.1 billion.​