Article: Why the Tesla Semi will transform the trucking industry in North America

I wrote this article on my blog:

Why the Tesla Semi will transform the trucking industry in North America​

I did a couple calculations about how the Tesla Semi compares with competing electric class 8 trucks that will be sold in North America:

I would be curious to know what people think of my calculations and my analysis of the Semi's advantages over the competition.

 

[MP3Mike]

I think you’re mistaken about what exactly requires maintenance on modern day trucks. Def system does not have any required maintenance.
Fuel/water separator filters and oil filters is part of the oil change. Which I mentioned. Nothing complicated about them.

These new automated transmissions do not require any maintenance in the lifespan of the truck. Ours is 450-500k miles.
Coolant also doesn’t require flushing within the lifespan of the truck.

What part of the fuel system exactly requires maintenance? Other than the aforementioned filters done at oil changes

Volvo seems to disagree with you: https://www.volvotrucks.us/-/media/...8a5cb4e&hash=C3766E51961D54F410BBF51FA440991D

 

[AMPd]

Even if the emissions were the same, ie coal used to generate electricity, ICE emissions occur in Port and Metro areas where people live (and into my car as I follow belching trucks) while EV emissions are usually in low population areas at power plant. And since EVs are much more efficient they use less energy overall as most combustion engines fuel go up in heat.

Emissions aren’t the same and I’m not saying they are. What I’m saying is claiming it to be “zero emissions” is simply inaccurate in today’s world.

 

[Operator64]

Volvo seems to disagree with you: https://www.volvotrucks.us/-/media/...8a5cb4e&hash=C3766E51961D54F410BBF51FA440991D

Now your using factual information that’s not fair

 

[AMPd]

Volvo seems to disagree with you: https://www.volvotrucks.us/-/media/...8a5cb4e&hash=C3766E51961D54F410BBF51FA440991D

I’m glad you posted that because Volvo disagrees with a lot of what you said

Transmission oil change interval : 500k miles

Coolant flush interval: 750k miles

DPF Filter cleaning: 400k miles (absolutely not, if you have no issues with your truck being able to regen on its own you don’t need to mess with it)



Volvo would love nothing more than for people to follow their intervals. Except for the oil change interval which I think is too long by their standards, everything else is too soon.

And as I said none of that is done to our trucks during their lifetime with us which is 450-500k miles.

Thanks for proving you don’t know what you’re talking about when it comes to modern day semi trucks.

 

[bradtem]

Emissions aren’t the same and I’m not saying they are. What I’m saying is claiming it to be “zero emissions” is simply inaccurate in today’s world.

It can be accurate if you have a truck running between your own depots, where you have charging, and where you contract entirely for "zero" emissions generation for your electricity at those facilities. I put "zero" in quotes because yes, even solar, hydro, wind and nuclear have emissions in their construction, but they have no additional emissions in their operation. You could have off-grid solar at the depots but that's less green than grid-tied solar. They way to have zero net emissions is to have grid-tied solar to match your driving, and also sell off your excess to reduce fossil on your local grid. Now it is true that in that case each mile you drive does trigger generation with emissions but your net effect is negative as you remove more than you cause.

There may be some intermediary megawatt charging stations that also contract for green power, but you would need to make sure you had those for charging.

 

[AMPd]

It can be accurate if you have a truck running between your own depots, where you have charging, and where you contract entirely for "zero" emissions generation for your electricity at those facilities. I put "zero" in quotes because yes, even solar, hydro, wind and nuclear have emissions in their construction, but they have no additional emissions in their operation. You could have off-grid solar at the depots but that's less green than grid-tied solar. They way to have zero net emissions is to have grid-tied solar to match your driving, and also sell off your excess to reduce fossil on your local grid. Now it is true that in that case each mile you drive does trigger generation with emissions but your net effect is negative as you remove more than you cause.

There may be some intermediary megawatt charging stations that also contract for green power, but you would need to make sure you had those for charging.

Ah I don’t think of that, fair point.I was thinking more of the cumulative grid power generation sources.

But I’ve heard of being able to subscribe to 100% renewable electricity.
I don’t know much about it, is the electricity actually coming from 100% renewable source or is it one of those we’ll plant a tree to offset the emissions and call it zero emissions things?

 

[bradtem]

Ah I don’t think of that, fair point.I was thinking more of the cumulative grid power generation sources.

But I’ve heard of being able to subscribe to 100% renewable electricity.
I don’t know much about it, is the electricity actually coming from 100% renewable source or is it one of those we’ll plant a tree to offset the emissions and call it zero emissions things?

I do it. Your power company contracts with various suppliers on the grid. They put power into the grid, the utility takes it out and delivers it to you. Of course electricity doesn't really flow through the grid, and everybody is always getting energy from all nearby suppliers. This affects what supply goes into the grid and how the money flows.

My money goes only to pay solar and wind suppliers. In doing so, it encourages more of them to join the grid, because people are willing to pay a small premium to them. Over the long term, my money and that of many others pays to get those suppliers on the grid. On the other hand, they would probably be there anyway as there are other incentives, and the premium paid is small.

When I draw a kWh from the grid on an instantaneous basis, it probably causes an NG plant (or maybe a hydro one) to increase its output. Just like anybody else drawing from the grid. On the other hand, my money pushes a greener grid, which everybody draws from.

You can't stop the grid from being a big pool. But that's a feature, not a bug. Because when my money pays to fund more solar and wind for the grid, all that energy reduces demand for fossil plants, and they slowly scale back. If you have off-grid solar, you can say you only used solar power, but in reality you end up throwing away your excess solar (and you will have a lot of excess in any off-grid system) when you could have been putting it in the grid to stop fossil plants from firing up.

 

[yessuz]

heh.

guy is well known for not the best relations towards musk, but he's got some valid points.

 

[2101Guy]

heh.

guy is well known for not the best relations towards musk, but he's got some valid points.

More of the same. Elon makes wild promises/misleads, then when the product actually hits the streets(Like FSD), the results are QUITE different than what was promised.

 

[ThomasD]

It has a million mile warranty but doesn't say how many years the warranty will last. Maybe 8 to 10 years?
eCascadia powertrain warranty
WARRANTY Base (vehicle): 3 yr / 150k miles Powertrain (291 kWh pack): 5yr / 150k miles Powertrain (438 kWh pack): 5yr / 300k miles

 

[DrChaos]

Commercial electricity is not cheaper than residential. There’s a reason Tesla supercharger rates are higher than the rate I pay at home.
Demand charges alone are probably as high as the actual usage rate.

Demand charges are high, but once you pay them and don't go over the max demand that month, the bulk electrical energy price is lower. The right economics favor charging stations in high use as would be found in a commercial trucking depot.

 

[amosbatto]

heh.

guy is well known for not the best relations towards musk, but he's got some valid points.

Thunderf00t makes a couple valid points, but some of his arguments are also hogwash in my opinion. It is true that FSD and convoy mode are not working as promised back in 2017 at the announcement of the Semi. It will probably be quite a few years before Tesla can deliver them.

Thunderf00t shows images of the Semi having broken down on the side of the road as proof that the Semi won't last a million miles, but a prototype breaking down is hardly proof of anything, since we don't know why it needed to be serviced, and auto companies often find flaws in prototypes. All evidence so far is that the Plaid motors are very reliable and probably can last 1 million miles. Also, Panasonic NCA and LG Chem NMCA 2170 cells can last a million miles if they are are only cycled between 10% and 90% of capacity. At this point we don't know whether Tesla will or won't offer a million mile guarantee on the Semi's drivetrain, but Tesla's vehicles do have much lower maintenance costs than ICE vehicles, so Thunderf00t is foolish to criticize Tesla on this point.

Thunderf00t's asserts that the Tesla Semi weights so much that it can't be carrying much of a load compared to a diesel semi. If the Semi has a 850 kWh battery, then let's add another 50 kWh for buffer to avoid battery degradation. If using Panasonic NCA 2170 cells with an energy density of 269 Wh/kg, then 900 KWh would weigh 3346 kg. Then add another 25% for the pack, for a total battery weight of 4182 kg or 9221 lbs.

According to Ingineerix, the Plaid's front motor weighs about 99 lbs (45 kg), while the rest of the drive unit (single-speed transmission and inverter) weighs about 110 lbs (50 kg), which gives us a total of 220 lbs (95 kg). If we multiply by 3 for the 3 motors, we get 660 lbs (300 kg), which is significantly less than the 3000-4000 lbs of motor weight in a long-haul class 8 diesel semi. The diesel semi also can carry 200 gallons of fuel, which weighs 1420 lbs, plus another 200 lbs for the fuel twords, Let's say that on average, the fuel tank is half full, so 700 lbs of fuel.

So let's compare:
Tesla Semi:
9221 battery + 660 motors = ~9,900 lbs
Diesel semi:
3500 motor + 700 fuel + 200 tank = 4,400 lbs

The rest of the truck should be roughly similar in weight, so the difference is about 5500 lbs, but electric semis are allowed to carry 2000 lbs more than ICE semis, so the Tesla Semi's allowed cargo weight would be 3500 lbs less than the diesel semi, which isn't that much when talking about a truck which is rated to have a gross weight of 82,000 lbs.

 

[ThomasD]

The Semi shown in the video towing the Jersey Barriers is supposed to be at 80,000lbs? If that is true just the semi weighs a lot.
Average Jersey Barrier is 10feet long 24 inches wide 32 inches high and weighs around 4,000 lbs. Cargo with chains and blocking and bracing maybe around 500 lb. The flatbed trailer is most likely close to 10,000 lbs. The loaded Trailer is around 37 to 40 K. The rest of the weight would be the Rig and Driver. I haven't driven a Semi or towed a flatbed trailer that large since I was in The Air Force. Maybe people that still do can say if I am close on my weight calculations

 

[MP3Mike]

Average Jersey Barrier is 10feet long 24 inches wide 32 inches high and weighs around 4,000 lbs. Cargo with chains and blocking and bracing maybe around 500 lb. The flatbed trailer is most likely close to 10,000 lbs. The loaded Trailer is around 37 to 40 K.

There were 11 Jersey barriers, so the loaded trailer should be like ~55k.

 

[ThomasD]

If that is correct then the Semi would weigh between 20,000 and 25,000 lbs

 

[amosbatto]

heh.

guy is well known for not the best relations towards musk, but he's got some valid points.

The other thing that Thunderf00t gets wrong is his calculation that the Tesla Semi is only carrying 5 or 6 tons of cargo in the 500 mile test from Sparks, NV to San Diego, CA.

A diesel class 8 semi tractor typically weighs 17k or 18k lbs, but can get as high as 25k lbs. A trailer weighs between 9k and 13.5k lbs. A tractor-trailer with a 17k lbs tractor and 10k lbs trailer can carry up to 53k lbs, since it has a 80k lbs limit. In the test, the Semi was carrying 11 Jersey barriers on what looks like a standard 53' trailer. According to this manufacturer, a 8' barrier weighs 3,575 lbs, a 10' barrier weighs 4450 lbs, and a 12' barrier weighs 5325 lbs. From the images, it looks like to me that the Semi was carrying four rows of 10' barriers, since that would leave 13 feet extra on a standard 53' trailer, but they definitely weren't 8' barriers, which is what Thunderf00t is showing in the images of the diesel trucks with barriers stacked on top of each other. If Tesla Semi was carrying eleven 10' barriers, then its load was 48,950 lbs, which is 4000 lbs less than the most that a diesel truck can carry.

 

[amosbatto]

There is a lot of misleading analysis since there are two types of trucks: "While definitions vary regarding what exactly counts as long-haul and short-haul driving, generally routes that involve a 200-mile radius or less should be considered short-haul, whereas anything over 250 miles is considered long-haul driving."

Yes, I agree that I probably should separate the short haul and the long haul trucks. When I first wrote the article, I only compared the Semi with the three longest range models (Freightliner eCascadia, Nikola TRE and Volvo VNR Electric), so there were only long haul trucks in the list, but then I added all the short haul trucks to the table, so I guess that does make it confusing.

FYI, looks like Volvo is showing 1.77 kWh/mi
Article: Volvo’s heavy-duty electric truck is put to the test: excels in both range and energy efficiency
Google simply conversion: https://www.google.com/search?q=1.1+kWh%2Fkm+in+kWh%2Fmi

With a range of 345 km (214 mi), I am calculating an energy efficiency of 2.52 kWh/mi for the Volvo FH Electric: