A critical post at this point would be a pile-on. So I am hesitat the do this but still doing it because I think it's relavent and timely.
The fundamental reason I invested multiple years in a row, no less "all in", was because I was hugely impressed with Elon back in 2013/14. I watched every single video interview out there and continued to watch on an ongoing basis - like you said like church goers listening to sermons. Musk always felt quite genuine, truthful and sincere... As a fellow engineer, really appreciated the engineering-centric logic-driven way he would express things.
However, over time that has fundamentally changed somehow. Change in the medium is just coincidence in my view... He went remarkably hyperbolic over time, border on outright lying. If you step back and see, since the S's success, everything Musk proclaimed has been a total load of bullshit. Where do I ever start or what do I list? Remember all these - X "sculpted" 2nd row seats (which literally no one praised once released), the pace and magnitude of success of Storage, remember that announcement to "end the range anxiety forever"? That maps update turned out to be a total disaster, synergies with SCTY merger, Model-3 timeline, FSD claims, countless other things or pretty much anything and everything Musk proclaimed... all turned out to be hyperbolic bullshit.
With Semi announcement, Chanos said that Musk has "crossed the rubicon" (meaning went beyond point of no return) because he is saying things which he knows he can't achieve - that's just a nice way of saying Musk is lying. He is indeed right about the Semi timeline and is countinuing to be right about Musk's character... Why do you think SEC is investigating M3 timeline? Were they honest misses or did Musk clearly know that the timelines were not possible but was still dishing them out, and no less raised 1.8Bil debt on the back of it?
The tweets "funding secured" and "Only reason why this is not certain is that it’s contingent on a shareholder vote" have put to light that Musk is indeed restorting to outright lies... He did not have Saudi support to take up "every and all" shares that would be turned in. Where is the Saudi statement? We see that Musk is infact shopping for buyers of the deal... There are no two explanations to this. He lied.
Now the NYT article published last night, and more importantly the update with the new paragraph, shows in broad day light that Musk has become a pathological liar... Snippets here:
**
Mr. Musk said in the interview that board members had not complained to him about his tweet. “I don’t recall getting any communications from the board at all,” he said. “I definitely did not get calls from irate directors.”
But shortly after the Times published its interview with Mr. Musk, he added through a Tesla spokeswoman that Antonio Gracias, Tesla’s lead independent director, had indeed contacted him to discuss the Aug. 7 Twitter post, and that he had agreed not to tweet again about the possible privatization deal unless he had discussed it with the board.
**
The second paragraph was addition in the morning update. This should seal the deal for anyone who is not certain that Musk lies.
So if folks are still pinning up hopes on TSLA, based on Musk's claims that Tesla is entering a phase of perpetual profits or cashflows. .. Good luck with that... Note that top-5 markets of Tesla are all having or just had tax rebate/subsidy issues...
but more importantly can anyone really trust ANYTHING musk says? My answer is no.
I understand where you're coming from, and believe me I've had plenty of time to digest such disappointments over the years.
Where I disagree with you is I think you take it a step further and you're making some additional assumptions.
We know that much of what Elon says in terms of guidance and timelines aren't true in terms of their timing. You've named some of the missed guidance/promises/timelines, but there are many more. Most of the time Elon eventually hits those goals but it is far later than he says and oftentimes much more messy. But for an investor like me, missed guidance is the same is false guidance... so I can understand and share the frustration.
I also think Elon has made a string of very costly mistakes over the past 4 years that has led to the stagnation of TSLA's stock price. First there was the SCTY acquisition, which I advocated at the time for Tesla to wait until after Model 3 ramp to seek to acquire SCTY because otherwise it would hurt their PL and balance sheets as to put more risk and pressure on their Model 3 ramp. Second was the Model X ramp fiasco and the horrendous communication about it to investors and customers. Third was the Model 3 ramp fiasco with again late and poor communication to investors and customers. Fourth was Elon's volatile and erratic behavior on Twitter this year that added to uncertainty around the company.
All four of those factors have impacted TSLA greater than the impact of shorts, in my opinion.
So, rather than blaming shorts for TSLA's stagnant stock price, there's probably more accurate reasons that have to deal with execution.
Now regarding Elon and whether you can trust him. I think it's fairly evident that he is often horrendously wrong with guidance and timelines. But there's another question at hand, which you're post is alluding to and that is whether Elon is intentionally lying or not.
I've watched people similar to Elon over the years and have noticed a complex personality is at work. Elon kind of reminds me of Steve Jobs at times. I remember back in the day when Apple had made a flawed iPod nano. After a day or two of wearing it in your pocket, it because scratched up. It was absolutely terrible and probably their worst product. I thought Steve Jobs would come out and apologize and somehow try to fix it. But rather Steve Jobs came out and basically said there was no problem at all. I could hardly believe it. 3-4 years later a class action lawsuit was finally settled regarding it, and people were paid out like $5 or $10 (I forget the exact amount). And over the years, I saw that same behavior from Steve Jobs again.
Steve Jobs had a way to bend the truth. But to him, it wasn't lying. It was just seeing it from another angle.
Elon is a smart guy, and well-intentioned but he has a complex set of reasons that he gives large and audacious goals, timelines and guidance. One example is on the last conference call an analyst asked if 1 million cars in 2020 is still on the table, and Elon said "Yes". And when questioned about exactly where those cars would be made, Elon didn't have a clear answer and ended up backpedaling a bit and saying 750k is more realistic, but they would still shoot for 1 million.
Most of us know that 1 millions cars in 2020 is a near impossibility, and it's quite foolish to be saying on an analyst conference call that you're shooting for 1 million cars in 2020 because they will hold you accountable to it. There's really no upside to making such audacious goals public, because they are beyond unrealistic.
But Elon's mind works differently than most of ours. And in his mind (this is conjecture), he thinks more in terms of true possibilities. Is it really impossible to reach 1 million cars in 2020? Is there even a .1% chance Tesla can produce 1 million cars in 2020? If so, then if everyone in the company works especially hard and they come up with some amazing ideas, then perhaps they can raise those chances higher and ultimately maybe even reach them. And then Elon reasons, is there any reason why not to try to target 1 million cars even if it's only remotely possible? He doesn't see an immediate downside. So, in his mind he concludes that it's a good thing to target 1 million cars in 2020 and push his company toward it, knowing that it probably won't happen.
But 99.9% of people don't operate and communicate like this. This is why Elon's communication gets interpreted in a different way than he intended it.
Elon never intended to really predict 100-200k Model 3 cars in 2018... he might have said something like that, but in his mind it was all about the possibility and if there was a possibility then he needed to drive his company toward that possibility. And the more relentlessly he pushes his company, the better the outcome will be, even if they grossly miss the stated target.
In other words, the stated target is not really a target in a true sense, at least in Elon's mind. The target is more of a mental exercise of possibility.
I'll repeat that.
Elon's stated targets are more mental exercises of possibility.
That's how the mind of Elon works, and so as long as you understand that, then you should be fine interpreting what he says.
In terms of Model 3 ramp, it is possible that everyone on the executive team saw earlier than Elon that they weren't going to meet the 5k Model 3 cars/week by the end of 2018. But that's understandable. Elon will be the last person who realizes that because he is relentlessly driving the company to reach the possibility of reaching 5k cars/week even if the possibility has dropped to 0.01%. In his mind, it's still possible and it should be possible if everybody works ridiculous hours and if every engineer inputs creative solutions. When it's absolutely clear to Elon that it's impossible to reach 5k cars/week, then he'll admit it, but it will be months after the rest of his team has concluded that and have been telling him that.
I do think he has some very unique ways of thinking and communicating, and that can be misinterpreted as Elon not being forthright. But as long as you grasp how the mind of Elon works, then you can interpret things correctly.
Time will tell if what I'm saying is correct or not.
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