neroden
Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
You mean you aren't already doing that?But then at some point, we have to start discounting his opinions as such.
Which is what I figured it was...When he tweets "taking the company private, funding secured" but then it turns out it's just some sjeik who sleepily nodded when Elon floated the idea of them bankrolling his wish,
I can't say I'm surprised, but it shows that the stock is undervalued. The odds of the go-private deal going through were high to start with and get higher every day which passes.then why are so many retail investors on this forum surprised when the price doesn't shoot up to $420.
Because that's a statement of intent. Musk wants to take the company private. He's said he'd prefer it for many years, then he said he was considering it, and now he's hiring the top M&A law firms in the country. At this point, thinking it won't happen is betting against *Musk with his mind set on something*, and you'll note Musk hasn't given a timeline at all. When Musk has stated that he's going to do something, and that something is in fact *possible*, how many times has he not done it?When Elon says, "The shorts are destroying the company, there is no alternative", why are we taking that then as gospel, dismissing their arguments out of hand, claiming that interviews with the most respectable newspapers are 'a disgrace'.
My conclusion: He's going to take the company private come hell or high water; he insists on it. There are enough ways to do it that he's going to do it sooner or later. The only thing which can stop him is a high stock price, and the short-sellers are keeping the stock price down.
In this case, several of us had already run the numbers and concluded the same thing, as you know from luvb2b's thread, so he was just saying what we'd already figured out. Q3 should be roughly breakeven, and easy enough to make cash-flow-positive (though I won't be surprised if it's slightly below "profit"); Q4 will be clearly profitable and cash-flow-positive.When Elon says Tesla will be structurally profitable and cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4 + does not need to raise money, what does that mean then for the financials?
Again, we already know what the company is doing here, because they have a track record. They're going to deliver the more expensive cars as long as there's still a waiting list for them -- and we can estimate the size of the waiting list, and how long it will take to fulfill it. 2/3 of reservation holders can be expected to want long-range, based on an old Electrek survey. (Nearly all of them apparently want AWD.) The US/Canada LR waiting list gets depleted around the end of the year. They could switch to the overseas waiting list, but so far they've made an effort to push cars in places where incentives are expiring, and that's the US right now. Therefore, according to past behavior, they will put out the short-range car around January. The "new battery module design" is apparently being implemented now, and 5 months is a reasonable amount of time to get it going, but even if they don't, it's not rocket science to build packs with fewer cells using the "old battery module design".When he promises us they are doing everything they can to get the short range to the market, is that a mental exercise for him or an effort that has a reasonable chance of actually making it in early 2019?
Well, practice harder. I've spent most of my investment career working out what the pronouncements of CEOs mean by filtering them through an understanding of the CEO's personality and the company's historic behavior. Reading between the lines is part of investment analysis. This isn't just Musk! They're *ALL* like this in one way or another! You can't take any of their words at face value... some of them sandbag predictions, some of them misdirect attention away from money-losing ventures, and frankly Musk is easier to understand than a lot of them.If none of his words can be taken to mean anything tangible and can't be used to hold the company accountable, what practical difference does it make for me that Elon thinks he is giving an honest assessment? He might as well be lying, I can't use his words to construct a picture of what the current situation is and what a reasonable future path forward there is at Tesla.
Yeah, he's complied with all of those. Unlike Lee Raymond at Exxon (who belongs in federal prison for life for his actual *crimes*) or the CEO of Bombardier just before it sold off all its profitable businesses to support the unprofitable ones (I'm still sore about that).And finally, it's all fine and dandy to be 'hey bro, it's just a mental picture'. But he is the chairman of the board, the CEO and the major insider of a public company. With those functions come certain regulations and expectations that you can't simply dismiss.
And as is usual, you can get away with a lot of things but it's always a final straw that breaks the camel's back... Icarus and all that.