Articles/megaposts by DaveT

[DaveT]

@DaveT, I do think the SEC's overreaching and Elon's reactions to it should be taken seriously.

I think the best solution is for Elon to reconsider his decision to keep Tesla as a public company, and to take Tesla private. More details here: Dear Elon: Please reconsider and take Tesla private

This time, since he already knows the views of shareholders he can do it in a controlled fashion and get all ducks in a row before publicly announcing the go-private deal.

@EinSV I read your post, and I think that we're probably seeing the problem differently. Perhaps you're seeing the problem as shortsellers (inc. FUD, media, SEC, etc). And thus, going private would mitigate the impact of those forces against Tesla and help them toward their mission. That could be true, but it's also a terrible cost to leave out retail investors by going private.

Also, I personally see the problem very differently than you and others. I don't think the root problem is the shortsellers, FUD, media or SEC at all. It's internal and the problem can be addressed and solved.

 

[Words of HABIT]

IMHO, the key to Tesla is M3 deliveries. If Tesla can obtain close to their delivery targets and make a profit, sustained going forward, then Tesla will prove to be a success. All Paid Media Sources are focusing on everything except this. PMS are winning on TMC since the the last hundreds of posts I have read on TMC, I counted two citing record deliveries, and those linked to articles which had a one liner "M3 outsells US luxury brands" and then paragraph after paragraph of FUD. Elon, the man, the humanitarian, the visionary, does not come down to a few tweets, so let's not reduce him to that. PMS can, but not us longs on TMC. We need to be more focused on deliveries, and profitability which will be self evident in the next fiscal quarter, if not already.

TSLA dropped significantly last Week. PMS will tell you it is 100% due to Elon's tweet to the sec. The reality is TSLA dropped because the judge reviewing the Elon/sec settlement has asked for a joint letter form Elon and the sec that justifies the settlement, essentially putting the deal in jeopardy. Did the stock go down or up because of the effect of Elon's tweet? There is no proof of that. Here is what happened:
- Sec sues Elon, TSLA drops 15%
- Deal reached, TSLA increases 17%
- Sec opens door to possibly retracting deal, TSLA decreases 17%

I look forward to Q3 Conference Call and my focus will be on M3 deliveries and profitability. Cheers.

 

[DaveT]

It looks like my current blog series is going to be longer than expected (probably at least 6 or 7 parts).

I'm looking for about 10-20 people who can help read my new blog post installments before they go out and give feedback to me. PM me if you're interested. Just let me know you're willing to preview blog posts and give me feedback.

Thanks.

 

[EinSV]

@EinSV I read your post, and I think that we're probably seeing the problem differently. Perhaps you're seeing the problem as shortsellers (inc. FUD, media, SEC, etc). And thus, going private would mitigate the impact of those forces against Tesla and help them toward their mission. That could be true, but it's also a terrible cost to leave out retail investors by going private.

Also, I personally see the problem very differently than you and others. I don't think the root problem is the shortsellers, FUD, media or SEC at all. It's internal and the problem can be addressed and solved.

Shortsellers and impatient public markets overly focused on short-term results. Also a financial press that's been almost constantly negative and on the attack for at least three years. Elon's risk-taking and personality -- both of which have led Tesla to being by far the fastest growing large technology company of the past year, five years and decade but also lead to controversy -- are not likely to change.

His personality and management style is optimized for success with a private company, where there are no short sellers and fewer short-term focused, hyperventilating investors, and the financial press has less reason to be on the constant attack because people are not buying and selling the stock willy nilly. Look how little attention SpaceX gets compared to Tesla -- and much more positive.

If Elon were no longer the driving force behind Tesla it would still do fine given the products in the pipeline, but I very seriously doubt innovation would stay at the same level. Without Elon leading the charge and continuing to take big risks, I would expect growth would quickly drop from the staggering 75% per year we have experienced over the past three years down to 25-30% per year or something along those lines. Still good, but far below Tesla's potential with Elon in charge.

With Elon still running the show and continuing to take the bold moves that have led to so much success while driving investors and the press into a tizzy and short sellers to foam at the mouth over Tesla's supposedly impending doom, I think we'll likely see 50+% annual growth for at least the next five years. Continuing to have the ludicrous growth Tesla has enjoyed is easier with Tesla as a private company, at least for a few years.

This year would have been completely different with Tesla as a private company. No earnings calls to go awry. No battles with the SEC. "Funding secured" would not have been an issue, etc.

 

[goinfraftw]

Shortsellers and impatient public markets overly focused on short-term results. Also a financial press that's been almost constantly negative and on the attack for at least three years. Elon's risk-taking and personality -- both of which have led Tesla to being by far the fastest growing large technology company of the past year, five years and decade but also lead to controversy -- are not likely to change.

His personality and management style is optimized for success with a private company, where there are no short sellers and fewer short-term focused, hyperventilating investors, and the financial press has less reason to be on the constant attack because people are not buying and selling the stock willy nilly. Look how little attention SpaceX gets compared to Tesla -- and much more positive.

If Elon were no longer the driving force behind Tesla it would still do fine given the products in the pipeline, but I very seriously doubt innovation would stay at the same level. Without Elon leading the charge and continuing to take big risks, I would expect growth would quickly drop from the staggering 75% per year we have experienced over the past three years down to 25-30% per year or something along those lines. Still good, but far below Tesla's potential with Elon in charge.

With Elon still running the show and continuing to take the bold moves that have led to so much success while driving investors and the press into a tizzy and short sellers to foam at the mouth over Tesla's supposedly impending doom, I think we'll likely see 50+% annual growth for at least the next five years. Continuing to have the ludicrous growth Tesla has enjoyed is easier with Tesla as a private company, at least for a few years.

This year would have been completely different with Tesla as a private company. No earnings calls to go awry. No battles with the SEC. "Funding secured" would not have been an issue, etc.

The best engineers will follow Elon Musk with whatever he does (SpaceX, Boring Company, Neurallink, etc.) and I think the people against Tesla understand that. Believe it'd kill the company over the long-term and bring in other players in the space (Waymo, Apple Titan, etc.), with deep pockets, to steal engineers at an astounding rate that are already building the best car on the planet to build other amazing cars (or something else entirely with Elon Musk). Think it's understated just how much of a loss losing him would be to Tesla's long-term and short-term prospects over something as silly as what he says on social media that, short-term only, affects the stock price on a day-to-day rather than an annualized basis.

 

[DaveT]

The best engineers will follow Elon Musk with whatever he does (SpaceX, Boring Company, Neurallink, etc.) and I think the people against Tesla understand that. Believe it'd kill the company over the long-term and bring in other players in the space (Waymo, Apple Titan, etc.), with deep pockets, to steal engineers at an astounding rate that are already building the best car on the planet to build other amazing cars (or something else entirely with Elon Musk). Think it's understated just how much of a loss losing him would be to Tesla's long-term and short-term prospects over something as silly as what he says on social media that, short-term only, affects the stock price on a day-to-day rather than an annualized basis.

Yes that is also one of my main concerns if Elon isn't part of Tesla. He does hold a lot of sway in recruiting the best and most talented engineers, and without Elon then recruiting could suffer which would hurt Tesla immensely.

However, it's also possible that Tesla is able to find a really stellar CEO that is well-respected among engineers and although recruiting might be more difficult they still are able to recruit and hold great engineers.

 

[DaveT]

Shortsellers and impatient public markets overly focused on short-term results. Also a financial press that's been almost constantly negative and on the attack for at least three years. Elon's risk-taking and personality -- both of which have led Tesla to being by far the fastest growing large technology company of the past year, five years and decade but also lead to controversy -- are not likely to change.

His personality and management style is optimized for success with a private company, where there are no short sellers and fewer short-term focused, hyperventilating investors, and the financial press has less reason to be on the constant attack because people are not buying and selling the stock willy nilly. Look how little attention SpaceX gets compared to Tesla -- and much more positive.

If Elon were no longer the driving force behind Tesla it would still do fine given the products in the pipeline, but I very seriously doubt innovation would stay at the same level. Without Elon leading the charge and continuing to take big risks, I would expect growth would quickly drop from the staggering 75% per year we have experienced over the past three years down to 25-30% per year or something along those lines. Still good, but far below Tesla's potential with Elon in charge.

With Elon still running the show and continuing to take the bold moves that have led to so much success while driving investors and the press into a tizzy and short sellers to foam at the mouth over Tesla's supposedly impending doom, I think we'll likely see 50+% annual growth for at least the next five years. Continuing to have the ludicrous growth Tesla has enjoyed is easier with Tesla as a private company, at least for a few years.

This year would have been completely different with Tesla as a private company. No earnings calls to go awry. No battles with the SEC. "Funding secured" would not have been an issue, etc.

Yeah I think I agree with your general argument that the growth rate could drop off without Elon, especially because another CEO will likely not be able to take the risks that Elon is comfortably taking. I think this is especially true more so in the 5-10 year timeframe.

 

[srius]

> ... Elon is being thrown into a very complicated and messy battle. ...
Here is a different perspective.
The 2018 Elon has brought the mess to himself, and he has sagged further and further away from core business with each distraction. Those actions pulled down Tesla along with its ardent supporters, who are blinded by the imminent turning point of Tesla - mass produced M3 and sustainable profits.
Elon's life would have been "simple" if he has stayed on his pre-2018 course - fighting shorts, FUDs, and any bias by focusing on executions - growing business and putting out great products. When the business grows and grows, the shorts and FUDs will eventually fade, and analysts and media will turn around and pour the kind of praises that Tesla doesn't even deserve.

 

[wdolson]

The best engineers will follow Elon Musk with whatever he does (SpaceX, Boring Company, Neurallink, etc.) and I think the people against Tesla understand that. Believe it'd kill the company over the long-term and bring in other players in the space (Waymo, Apple Titan, etc.), with deep pockets, to steal engineers at an astounding rate that are already building the best car on the planet to build other amazing cars (or something else entirely with Elon Musk). Think it's understated just how much of a loss losing him would be to Tesla's long-term and short-term prospects over something as silly as what he says on social media that, short-term only, affects the stock price on a day-to-day rather than an annualized basis.

Elon's personality also drives off and burns out talent. The vast majority of people can't drive themselves like Elon does. I'm surprised Elon hasn't gotten sick yet with the schedule he keeps.

A lot of other electric start up companies and projects have been able to poach people from Tesla because Elon is so hard to work for. A less manic boss might retain people better than Elon can.

 

[JRP3]

> ... Elon is being thrown into a very complicated and messy battle. ...
Here is a different perspective.
The 2018 Elon has brought the mess to himself, and he has sagged further and further away from core business with each distraction. Those actions pulled down Tesla along with its ardent supporters, who are blinded by the imminent turning point of Tesla - mass produced M3 and sustainable profits.
Elon's life would have been "simple" if he has stayed on his pre-2018 course - fighting shorts, FUDs, and any bias by focusing on executions - growing business and putting out great products. When the business grows and grows, the shorts and FUDs will eventually fade, and analysts and media will turn around and pour the kind of praises that Tesla doesn't even deserve.

Except that the reason Elon started going on the offensive was because the FUD had constantly been increasing at an alarming rate. Staying silent was not working.

 

[Kenshi]

I’m quite saddened to see many of TMCers, especially DaveT, are loosing faith in Elon. I wanted to express the future success of Tesla not only depends on Elon and the company, but also largely on the ardent fan base. I would argue they are highly correlated . If any of three pillars is removed, the house will collapse.

Human makes mistakes including Elon. The best, also the hardest, thing we can do as a fan is to forgive. Let's not bring up his PEDO comments and support his fight with SEC, which I believe didn't act upon the best interests of share holders. For one thing, the timing of the SEC law suit highly favored the short sellers. SEC could take its time (usually 20 months). Why do it so soon right before the Q3 delivery numbers? I believe it created the maximum FUD and SP damage, exactly the best case scenario the shorts wanted.

 

[heltok]

The best engineers will follow Elon Musk with whatever he does

Another guy with a big following in the Machine Learning world is Andrej Karpathy. I imagine a lot of the top graduates in ML are looking to work for him. His last talk Software 2.0 was basically a big recruitment promo:

(listen to the last 2 minutes)

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I’m quite saddened to see many of TMCers, especially DaveT, are loosing faith in Elon. I wanted to express the future success of Tesla not only depends on Elon and the company, but also largely on the ardent fan base. I would argue they are highly correlated . If any of three pillars is removed, the house will collapse.

Human makes mistakes including Elon. The best, also the hardest, thing we can do as a fan is to forgive. Let's not bring up his PEDO comments and support his fight with SEC, which I believe didn't act upon the best interests of share holders. For one thing, the timing of the SEC law suit highly favored the short sellers. SEC could take its time (usually 20 months). Why do it so soon right before the Q3 delivery numbers? I believe it created the maximum FUD and SP damage, exactly the best case scenario the shorts wanted.

Elon doesn't need support, he needs intervention.

I am dismayed at all at this board that support him uncritically, as that is what let him keep going.

I guess I am naive to expect more people to think critically; life is simpler when you choose one side and stick to it, no matter what. We're seeing digging in on both sides: (some) shorts can't see anything good about Tesla, and (some) longs make Elon to be a saint that can do no wrong,

 

[JRP3]

Or we don't see wrongdoing where there is none. Elon's actions are being blown out of proportion by bears and some bulls alike.

 

[DaveT]

Or we don't see wrongdoing where there is none. Elon's actions are being blown out of proportion by bears and some bulls alike.

So Elon’s actions have nothing to do with the stock being at $250 right now?

 

[DaveT]

An example of another Tesla PR fail.

Jeremy C. Owens on Twitter

 

[Ugliest1]

So Elon’s actions have nothing to do with the stock being at $250 right now?

"Nothing"? No, I wouldn't say that. However I think there's a lot of other action happening that likely has more to do with it.

I'm not happy about a few of Elon's tweets, but I'm just not willing to judge him either. I haven't (and never will) walked in his shoes. I haven't driven the change that he has, and continues. I don't have the information (or even the ability to parse it) that he has. I haven't been subject to the massive disinformation/lying/personal attack campaign(s) that he's been the target of.

All this comes down to, yeah maybe back off on the non-classy tweets, please? But I don't have the right to demand anything.

 

[JRP3]

So Elon’s actions have nothing to do with the stock being at $250 right now?

I said Elon's actions were being blown out of proportion, not that they had no effect. Important difference.

 

[DaveT]

I said Elon's actions were being blown out of proportion, not that they had no effect. Important difference.

Not trying to pick an argument, but I thought you said that he had done no wrongdoing. But that's probably just a misunderstanding on my part. Let's move on.

 

[JRP3]

Yes, to be clear, I simply see fewer wrong moves on his part, not that he's never been wrong.