I think I might reverse that equation. It's us (investors) that need to learn- Let Elon do what he does; This creates nothing but opportunity
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I think I might reverse that equation. It's us (investors) that need to learn- Let Elon do what he does; This creates nothing but opportunity
I agree. As investors we largely need to focus on what we can control and that is the decisions we make. The more TSLA corrects, the bigger the opportunity that is handed to us.
2016 LEAPs come out this Monday, Nov 11, fyi.
Yep, I was going to load up on them by selling off my other TSLA options post Q3 earnings... Not enough left to buy a single block now.
I might dump what's left of value in my Jan2015 LEAPS and pick up the Jan2016s. Though I think the trashed value of my current LEAPS plus increased time value in the 2016's would mean a big drop in blocks, so maybe not.
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ckessel, I've read some of your other posts where you mention you lost a lot by converting your shares to short-term options this time around. When I face a loss like that, I try to remind myself that more valuable than money is my thought process and how I make decisions. So, I try to find out how I can improve my decision-making process (ie., knowledge, experience, insight, etc). I'll try not to get down on the loss, but I'll focus on how I made the decision and what I can do to improve that process to make a better decision next time. Often, this gets me motivated to read more and seek more knowledge and expertise. But I hope that you don't get down from your temporary setback, but use it to build your investing decision-making process and skillset.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Agree, that helps to avoid similar loss in the future. I knew I was too TSLA heavy going into the ER and I even planned to reduce the risk, but had my mind set on hedging as I didn't think I could come out with no loss reducing the position. That mindset limited me somewhat because on 5th in the morning the November calls all went into green and I could have eliminated 67% of them for no loss and possibly moved some of it to either sidelines or longer term options. Instead I hedged by selling higher strikes for ca 30% of the original call cost and that was my profit yesterday that offset some of my liquidation of loss taking calls. I ended yesterday with net 0 realized P/L, but I still carry quite some unrealized loss on longer term options. Today I don't know what to do, should I just exit those positions as well, sit a week on the sidelines and re-enter once the madness has ended (including the 3rd Tesla fire now). I'm fairly sure that a Tesla full statement will come over the weekend, but we have today and tomorrow left for trading. I will probably not touch my January 2015 options and maybe also not my March 2014 ones, but the November leftovers (mostly worthless) and December one might be worth getting rid of ... or not ... Damn indecision right now. There's so much uncertainty in TSLA in the short term, that it's hard to adjust the plays for it.
I'm not sure much of any amount of reflection would have allowed me to see TSLA falling from the mid 180s when I split 1/2 my stock into options to the 140s where we are now. Nor can I see any path that would have prevented horrific losses. I could have, and have mentioned this before, spread my calls over multiple time periods, Nov, Jan, March sort of thing, to reduce exposure to such a fluctuation, but I'd still have tremendous losses. I'm frankly doubtful a March $180 ATM would have much chance break even at this point.
Pointed noted, but I don't see much that could have prevented this other than a magic crystal ball.
When I split out, I did replace every stock with 1-1.25 Jan 15 LEAPS, precisely to avoid a short term disaster from killing the long term. This has been far worse than I could have imagined, but the LEAPS are there. They're at a $225 break even point though which seems ambitious at this point (>50% growth in the next 14 months).
I've still got that long position, but the 50% I used for options is basically gone and there will be no more money to put towards it for years (kids in college sucking up all cash). The only part of that 50% that has value is the portion I put into solar, which are also mostly negative, but at least not by much.
Pointed noted, but I don't see much that could have prevented this other than a magic crystal ball.
When I split out, I did replace every stock with 1-1.25 Jan 15 LEAPS, precisely to avoid a short term disaster from killing the long term. This has been far worse than I could have imagined, but the LEAPS are there. They're at a $225 break even point though which seems ambitious at this point (>50% growth in the next 14 months).
I've still got that long position, but the 50% I used for options is basically gone and there will be no more money to put towards it for years (kids in college sucking up all cash). The only part of that 50% that has value is the portion I put into solar, which are also mostly negative, but at least not by much.
Given TSLA has already established a $190 top, I would place a 2014 50% growth from here well within reason and even half that growth by summer would afford a roll out to 2016 at that time if needed
Thanks, yea, I guess that's what I am more or less hoping for, that there'd be enough growth that I can trade them out for 2016s without losing share quantity. I'd intended to hold them until expiration since it seemed like a conservative number originally and that'd enabled the capital gains tax rate (options held for over a year). Trading them out involves a tax hit, unfortunately.
Not much to do but wait several months and see where things are at.
DaveT, i think this is great advice that i'm sure many of us (myself included) would be wise to heed. one of the things that got me thinking as i was evaluating how i could have made better decisions leading into 3Q was the recent posts here commenting that TSLA january 2016 leaps are going to be available on november 11th.
despite reading TMC regularly (i am more of a lurker than a poster), i did not see any posts about this date until AFTER 3Q earnings. i was curious if this LEAPs availability date was known before earnings, and did a google search for january 2016 LEAP, and interestingly enough, it took me to one of your megaposts from back in august (click here for the full post).
here is a particularly interesting paragraph from that post:
now clearly we are in a different situation re: how we got there (e.g. not driven by a market index decline), but i think it is still interesting to read about your thought process from back then, particularly with regard to folks feeling scared about doing major buying.
surfside
Why Tesla's 3rd fire is not the end of the world
When dramatic events happen like yesterday’s 3rd Tesla fire, sometimes you need to take a step back from the noise and seek clarity and insight.
The good and bad
First, let’s look at the good and the bad from the facts we have from the fire as of now (Thurs 2pm PST).
The good:
The driver was not injured.
The driver says the he believes the car saved his life.
The car ran over a tow hitch with substantial damage to the car. The tow hitch probably was a very large tow hitch, big enough to scare the driver into thinking he was going to die when he drove over it (otherwise why would he believe the car saved his life). In other words, if he was driving an ICE car he might have been killed and that’s likely the reason why the driver is thankful.
Tesla is on top of things. They’ve talked to the owner and have sent a team over already.
Tesla will likely respond in more full form within a few days.
The bad:
This is the second fire in a month and a half occurring after driving over an object piercing the battery pack.
This happened the day after a so, so earnings report that lacked guidance for the upcoming year.
The stock closed under $140 today.
The difficult part is how to interpret everything that’s happened (and also what will happen like Tesla’s response). I think the best way is to remove emotions and look at this in the most objective manner possible.
Evaluating the 3rd Fire
The worst thing that could have happened is a spontaneous fire that instantly exploded the car and killed the driver. And to have multiple cars experience this. However, this case is much different. What we have here is a driver who drove over a likely huge tow hitch thinking he was a goner but the car saved his life. He pulled over, got out of the car without injury, and the car experienced a contained fire to the front section of the car.
To me the logical and obvious culprit is some freakishly shaped object that was able to somehow get under the car and then shoot up into the battery pack (similar to the 1st fire). I call it “freakish” because most object will either 1) not fit under the car and thus be dragged in front of the car, or 2) be short/thin enough to fit under the car and the car passes over the object. But for the object to fit under the car but then at the same time to shoot up with enough pressure to puncture the 6mm ballistic shield protecting the battery pack, that is what I call freakish.
The unfortunate thing is that this episode of driving over a freakishly shaped object and causing a fire has happened twice in just one and a half months. This naturally leads people to think that the so-called “freakishly” shaped object maybe isn’t so freakish after all and might be common. And this is what I believe is driving a lot of fear and doubt right now.
I personally look to the most logical and objective explanation, and to me it’s difficult to see a normal-shaped object being able to fit under the car and then shoot upward to the battery pack with such force to puncture a ballistic shield. Elon Musk wrote about the first fire, "The geometry of the object caused a powerful lever action as it went under the car, punching upward and impaling the Model S with a peak force on the order of 25 tons.” (Model S Fire | Blog | Tesla Motors) To me this makes sense. The geometry of the object needs to be shaped in such a way that it actually fits under the car and when it does go under the car it punches upward with an insane amount of lever action force to cause major damage. This is not a common occurrence, and that is why I call it freakish.
Tesla will likely address this 3rd fire with a more detailed statement or blog post in the coming days. Given the facts that we have so far, I would foresee either Elon or someone else sharing similar information as the 1st fire. The culprit was a freakishly-shaped object that could have killed the driver in an ICE car but the driver was kept safe in a Model S.
The difficult part of this 3rd fire is that it’s happened before, so there will be some natural resistance from people in receiving and accepting this explanation.
What helps is that the Model S is built like a tank. In terms of safety, I can’t think of another car I’d rather drive.
So, this 3rd fire… it too shall pass.
Effect on Demand
Now let’s move on to the possible impact of this 3rd fire on TSLA’s stock price. It’s tough to forecast short-term movements because the market is moved by so many factors in the short-term. But long-term, the effect of the 3rd fire should be evaluated based on the effect the fire will have on long-term demand for the Model S and GenIII cars.
The good news is that Tesla doesn’t have a demand problem (at least currently). They can’t produce enough cars for current demand. So, even if demand slows it might not affect their sales/deliveries for 2014 and 2015. In other words, even if demands slows some from the 3rd fire Tesla is still likely going to be able to deliver 40,000 cars in 2014 and 80,000 cars in 2015. If demand is hit harder because of the fire and Tesla can only ship 30,000 in 2014 and 60,000 in 2015 because of lower demand then this fire will have a legitimate negative effect on the stock price (probably both short and long-term).
The fires do have another effect and that might be to limit some of the unbridled enthusiasm behind the company and stock. The fires show that even the highest of flying companies can sometimes hit bumps in the road and that’s a good reality check for investors.
I’m optimistic that demand won’t be hurt that much by the 3rd fire because of the following:
1. Tow hitch identified
2. Driver believes the car saved his life (leads me to believe the tow hitch was huge and could have killed him in an ICE car)
3. Driver was unharmed
Of course there could be new information that comes out that could change my opinion. But as of now I’m still seeing the Model S was the safest car on the road. These freakish incidents, unfortunately close together in occurrence, still don’t discount the fact that the Model S has the best crash tests and I’d rather be carrying batteries than hauling a tank full of gasoline in an accident.
Short-term odds
I don’t like to comment extensively on short-term price action because it’s so difficult to predict and I don’t want people to base decisions solely on my comments. But I’ll share some of my thoughts, just be warned they could be very wrong.
When Tesla announced Q3 earnings a few days ago, I took a few hours without looking at the afterhour price or reactions of other to form my own opinion of the earnings report and it’s possible effect on TSLA stock short-term. Here’s what I wrote in my notes then:
50% chance the stock drops under $145
If drops under $145, then 80% chance it holds over $133
If drops under $133, then 80% chance it holds over $120
If drops under $120, then 80% chance it holds over $108
Now that we have another downward catalyst with the third fire, we’ve closed under $140 today. I’m thinking the current odds IMO are:
70% chance the stock holds over $133
If drops under $133, then 80% chance it holds over $120
If drops under $120, then 80% chance it holds over $108
(11/8 update: I see $133 as a very strong resistance point and see it at 80-85% holding above, and if it drops then 95% holding over $120.)
The longer we hold over $133, the greater the chance the stock jumps back over $150+.
When and what to buy
I usually don’t give specific buying advice since I don’t like the idea of feeling responsible for others’ decisions. That’s why I focus on the decision-making process. I’ll share some of my thoughts here.
When a stock is fairly valued and flying high (good solid upward momentum) I prefer to hold common stock as a core position. If the stock is undervalued, then I prefer LEAPs. If a stock is grossly undervalued and I am confident of the timing of an inflection point, I prefer OTM calls. (Note: I have different and more complicated preferences for short-term speculative plays.)
To me TSLA currently under $150 puts it in undervalued territory and justifies me looking at investing into LEAPs. I prefer the longest dated LEAPs as possible if I’m going to hold them long-term as a core position.
Also, if a stock is flying high and corrects I usually won’t buy LEAPs as a long-term position unless the stock corrects enough to enter a “undervalued” territory from my perspective. That’s why when TSLA correct from $194 to $160 I wasn’t looking at it as a huge LEAPs opportunity. But as it drops under $150, it becomes more compelling to invest into slightly OTM LEAPs dated 2015 or 2016 (which will be released on Nov 11th). For those a bit more risk-averse, common stock is great because there’s no expiration date like with options of LEAPs.
The key though when a stock corrects is to accurately discern to the best of one’s ability whether the correction is a result of a fundamental long-term change in the outlook of the company, or if the correction is a result of a minor bump in the road and pessimistic sentiment. While I understand the argument that says that these fires will hurt long-term demand and affect the long-term outlook of Tesla, I disagree and see the fires as more minor bumps that won’t significantly impact long-term demand or the outlook of Tesla.
A Final Story
I’ll close this post with a story from this morning. My wife and I have been following this 3rd fire since yesterday afternoon and reading everything we can get our hands on. This morning my wife was very anxious with all the fear and anxiety out there regarding the stock price and also what the 3rd fire could mean in terms of perception and demand. I spent the morning helping her work through her anxiety and evaluate the situation more objectively. One of the questions I asked her was “Does this third fire cause you to not want a Model S anymore?” She responded, “No, I’d still want one.” I asked, “Why?” She said, “It’s still the safest car out there.” I replied, “Yep, it’s because they built the Model S like a tank.”
The point being that this 3rd fire doesn’t change the Model S from a “safe” car into an “unsafe” car. This poll also confirms this, How Many Owners Would Buy Again, Given the latest fire information? - View Poll Results .
When dramatic events happen like yesterday’s 3rd Tesla fire, sometimes you need to take a step back from the noise and seek clarity and insight.
The good and bad
First, let’s look at the good and the bad from the facts we have from the fire as of now (Thurs 2pm PST).
The good:
The driver was not injured.
The driver says the he believes the car saved his life.
The car ran over a tow hitch with substantial damage to the car. The tow hitch probably was a very large tow hitch, big enough to scare the driver into thinking he was going to die when he drove over it (otherwise why would he believe the car saved his life). In other words, if he was driving an ICE car he might have been killed and that’s likely the reason why the driver is thankful.
Tesla is on top of things. They’ve talked to the owner and have sent a team over already.
Tesla will likely respond in more full form within a few days.
The bad:
This is the second fire in a month and a half occurring after driving over an object piercing the battery pack.
This happened the day after a so, so earnings report that lacked guidance for the upcoming year.
The stock closed under $140 today.
The difficult part is how to interpret everything that’s happened (and also what will happen like Tesla’s response). I think the best way is to remove emotions and look at this in the most objective manner possible.
Evaluating the 3rd Fire
The worst thing that could have happened is a spontaneous fire that instantly exploded the car and killed the driver. And to have multiple cars experience this. However, this case is much different. What we have here is a driver who drove over a likely huge tow hitch thinking he was a goner but the car saved his life. He pulled over, got out of the car without injury, and the car experienced a contained fire to the front section of the car.
To me the logical and obvious culprit is some freakishly shaped object that was able to somehow get under the car and then shoot up into the battery pack (similar to the 1st fire). I call it “freakish” because most object will either 1) not fit under the car and thus be dragged in front of the car, or 2) be short/thin enough to fit under the car and the car passes over the object. But for the object to fit under the car but then at the same time to shoot up with enough pressure to puncture the 6mm ballistic shield protecting the battery pack, that is what I call freakish.
The unfortunate thing is that this episode of driving over a freakishly shaped object and causing a fire has happened twice in just one and a half months. This naturally leads people to think that the so-called “freakishly” shaped object maybe isn’t so freakish after all and might be common. And this is what I believe is driving a lot of fear and doubt right now.
I personally look to the most logical and objective explanation, and to me it’s difficult to see a normal-shaped object being able to fit under the car and then shoot upward to the battery pack with such force to puncture a ballistic shield. Elon Musk wrote about the first fire, "The geometry of the object caused a powerful lever action as it went under the car, punching upward and impaling the Model S with a peak force on the order of 25 tons.” (Model S Fire | Blog | Tesla Motors) To me this makes sense. The geometry of the object needs to be shaped in such a way that it actually fits under the car and when it does go under the car it punches upward with an insane amount of lever action force to cause major damage. This is not a common occurrence, and that is why I call it freakish.
Tesla will likely address this 3rd fire with a more detailed statement or blog post in the coming days. Given the facts that we have so far, I would foresee either Elon or someone else sharing similar information as the 1st fire. The culprit was a freakishly-shaped object that could have killed the driver in an ICE car but the driver was kept safe in a Model S.
The difficult part of this 3rd fire is that it’s happened before, so there will be some natural resistance from people in receiving and accepting this explanation.
What helps is that the Model S is built like a tank. In terms of safety, I can’t think of another car I’d rather drive.
So, this 3rd fire… it too shall pass.
Effect on Demand
Now let’s move on to the possible impact of this 3rd fire on TSLA’s stock price. It’s tough to forecast short-term movements because the market is moved by so many factors in the short-term. But long-term, the effect of the 3rd fire should be evaluated based on the effect the fire will have on long-term demand for the Model S and GenIII cars.
The good news is that Tesla doesn’t have a demand problem (at least currently). They can’t produce enough cars for current demand. So, even if demand slows it might not affect their sales/deliveries for 2014 and 2015. In other words, even if demands slows some from the 3rd fire Tesla is still likely going to be able to deliver 40,000 cars in 2014 and 80,000 cars in 2015. If demand is hit harder because of the fire and Tesla can only ship 30,000 in 2014 and 60,000 in 2015 because of lower demand then this fire will have a legitimate negative effect on the stock price (probably both short and long-term).
The fires do have another effect and that might be to limit some of the unbridled enthusiasm behind the company and stock. The fires show that even the highest of flying companies can sometimes hit bumps in the road and that’s a good reality check for investors.
I’m optimistic that demand won’t be hurt that much by the 3rd fire because of the following:
1. Tow hitch identified
2. Driver believes the car saved his life (leads me to believe the tow hitch was huge and could have killed him in an ICE car)
3. Driver was unharmed
Of course there could be new information that comes out that could change my opinion. But as of now I’m still seeing the Model S was the safest car on the road. These freakish incidents, unfortunately close together in occurrence, still don’t discount the fact that the Model S has the best crash tests and I’d rather be carrying batteries than hauling a tank full of gasoline in an accident.
Short-term odds
I don’t like to comment extensively on short-term price action because it’s so difficult to predict and I don’t want people to base decisions solely on my comments. But I’ll share some of my thoughts, just be warned they could be very wrong.
When Tesla announced Q3 earnings a few days ago, I took a few hours without looking at the afterhour price or reactions of other to form my own opinion of the earnings report and it’s possible effect on TSLA stock short-term. Here’s what I wrote in my notes then:
50% chance the stock drops under $145
If drops under $145, then 80% chance it holds over $133
If drops under $133, then 80% chance it holds over $120
If drops under $120, then 80% chance it holds over $108
Now that we have another downward catalyst with the third fire, we’ve closed under $140 today. I’m thinking the current odds IMO are:
70% chance the stock holds over $133
If drops under $133, then 80% chance it holds over $120
If drops under $120, then 80% chance it holds over $108
(11/8 update: I see $133 as a very strong resistance point and see it at 80-85% holding above, and if it drops then 95% holding over $120.)
The longer we hold over $133, the greater the chance the stock jumps back over $150+.
When and what to buy
I usually don’t give specific buying advice since I don’t like the idea of feeling responsible for others’ decisions. That’s why I focus on the decision-making process. I’ll share some of my thoughts here.
When a stock is fairly valued and flying high (good solid upward momentum) I prefer to hold common stock as a core position. If the stock is undervalued, then I prefer LEAPs. If a stock is grossly undervalued and I am confident of the timing of an inflection point, I prefer OTM calls. (Note: I have different and more complicated preferences for short-term speculative plays.)
To me TSLA currently under $150 puts it in undervalued territory and justifies me looking at investing into LEAPs. I prefer the longest dated LEAPs as possible if I’m going to hold them long-term as a core position.
Also, if a stock is flying high and corrects I usually won’t buy LEAPs as a long-term position unless the stock corrects enough to enter a “undervalued” territory from my perspective. That’s why when TSLA correct from $194 to $160 I wasn’t looking at it as a huge LEAPs opportunity. But as it drops under $150, it becomes more compelling to invest into slightly OTM LEAPs dated 2015 or 2016 (which will be released on Nov 11th). For those a bit more risk-averse, common stock is great because there’s no expiration date like with options of LEAPs.
The key though when a stock corrects is to accurately discern to the best of one’s ability whether the correction is a result of a fundamental long-term change in the outlook of the company, or if the correction is a result of a minor bump in the road and pessimistic sentiment. While I understand the argument that says that these fires will hurt long-term demand and affect the long-term outlook of Tesla, I disagree and see the fires as more minor bumps that won’t significantly impact long-term demand or the outlook of Tesla.
A Final Story
I’ll close this post with a story from this morning. My wife and I have been following this 3rd fire since yesterday afternoon and reading everything we can get our hands on. This morning my wife was very anxious with all the fear and anxiety out there regarding the stock price and also what the 3rd fire could mean in terms of perception and demand. I spent the morning helping her work through her anxiety and evaluate the situation more objectively. One of the questions I asked her was “Does this third fire cause you to not want a Model S anymore?” She responded, “No, I’d still want one.” I asked, “Why?” She said, “It’s still the safest car out there.” I replied, “Yep, it’s because they built the Model S like a tank.”
The point being that this 3rd fire doesn’t change the Model S from a “safe” car into an “unsafe” car. This poll also confirms this, How Many Owners Would Buy Again, Given the latest fire information? - View Poll Results .
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InTheShadows
Active Member
Awesome write up DaveT. How do you come up with your percentages of occurrences? Your article confirmed my decision to liquidate all my short term (that still had any value) and my mid term options for leaps on Monday.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It may, however, appear to turn the car into an unsafe car, and perception beats reality. I think at this point Tesla is going to have to come up with an engineering solution and not try to explain it away. It seems to me that hitting road debris is more common than we realize, and the S with it's lower highway speed ride height and under car pack mounting may be more vulnerable to such events.
Nice post Dave.
Issue I think is that of an unknown if Model S is more prone to fire if it runs over metal objects. For ICEs to catch fire, the object must puncture the fuel line.
The big unknown is the general perception and how this situation is being addressed by tesla. Recalls and rework of the pack?
And lastly, tesla MUST address the production issues quickly. Keep telling the market that there is demand but no supply for 6 months is not a good execution. Get over Elon.
Issue I think is that of an unknown if Model S is more prone to fire if it runs over metal objects. For ICEs to catch fire, the object must puncture the fuel line.
The big unknown is the general perception and how this situation is being addressed by tesla. Recalls and rework of the pack?
And lastly, tesla MUST address the production issues quickly. Keep telling the market that there is demand but no supply for 6 months is not a good execution. Get over Elon.
Sorry if it's a bit O/T, but this seems to happen more easily than you'd think, and with terrible consequences.
http://www.thedailystar.net/beta2/news/bus-fire-kills-40-in-india/
A lot of it is intuitive. I combine the following:
- I have in my head low valuations and high valuations of TSLA (ie., market cap) based on revenue expectations and multiples.
- I have in my head super low valuations and super high valuations of TSLA (ie., market cap) based on various scenarios.
- I come up with a trading range I think the stock could trade in based off of the latest figures (ie., earnings report, news, etc).
- I look at technical trends and sentiment.
- I look at various resistance levels.
- I try to probe into investor sentiment and how that will affect stock price.
- I'm aware at how analysts view and value the stock.
- I'm aware of how momentum traders view the stock at the time.
- etc.
All of these factors somehow make their way into my percentages/odds of various scenarios.
I am not denying the fact. My feeling is that Model s may be prone to fire easily after 3rd incident. Statistics does not favor us after back to back freak incidents.
I also feel that an engineering solution would put this issue to rest.
Care to share your thoughts on Market cap valuations? My thoughts are that rev run rate is $2.5B.
Super lowing being 2x Revenues. Super high being 10x Revenues. Guess today we are 7x.
Great post Dave, and astute analysis as usual. Tell your wife there are many, many people who appreciate your work and we thank her for sharing you with us. 
Thanks for the reminder on LEAPs as well. Certainly a viable strategy for many.
Keep up the great work.
Thanks for the reminder on LEAPs as well. Certainly a viable strategy for many.
Keep up the great work.
It would take more time than I have at the moment to fully explain my market cap valuations because there's a lot of scenarios I have in my head. That said a pure multiple of revenue is a very poor way to value Tesla in my opinion. You need to factor in market size, growth rate, competitive advantage, potential scale, gross margins, etc. to form a value(s) that investors are willing to give in exuberant times but also separate valuation(s) in case of pessimistic sentiment/mood.
Back in early August I shared an example of a valuation of TSLA of $20 to $30 billion with current numbers but considering an exuberant investor mood. See here, Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA) - Page 25 . But I didn't share I also have the reverse valuation in my head, which would be a low valuation based off of pessimistic mood/sentiment. And those ranges get more specific in different scenarios.
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