Articles/megaposts by DaveT

[MitchJi]

I'm very concerned about the future of our society and the planet.

I'm not concerned about TSLA long term, mid 2018 and longer. I believe by then that Tesla will be producing an M3 at a rate of at least one car every 30 seconds, about 30 GWh per year of TE, plus increased MS-MX production, and probably 1- 5 GW of Splar tile and panels. I v very confident that the TSLA SP will be at least $300 by then.

My concern is what's going to happen between January 20, 2017 and May 2017? I'm nervous about a large number of Mar17's.

I don't currently intend to hold any major option positions expiring after May 2017, until the M3 is being produced in volume, which I think will be by 9-17 and 12-17.

 

[MitchJi]

The following were copied from a private Conversation, waiting for permission to reveal the usernames:

Can't look at Trump or the U.S. as isolated from what's going on globally with the rise of nationalism and the erosion of democracy and civil liberties.

In Poland, a window on what happens when populists come to power

Wow, that is scary. Could it happen here?

Here's the short version:
1. Growing class divide globally is leading to economic and social discontentment.
2. Causes of class divide are labeled as systemic and requiring radical/strong/nationalistic leadership by those leading populist movements.
3. Immigrants, globalism, crony capitalism, terror, status quo politicians, liberalists, etc. are the scapegoats in these new movements.
4. New far right nationalist governments are tightening borders, promoting monocultural national identities, cracking down in dissension, strengthening control of government, and using fight against terror to gain more control.
5. Steve Bannon, White House chief strategist, has many friendships and connections with far right nationalist movements in Europe, and has been heavily influenced by them. Bannon's "coaching" helped Trump win, and Trump knows this and this is why he's appointed Bannon as his chief strategist.

I'll let you guys connect the dots.

 

[JRP3]

My three question are:
1. Will the unemployed and underemployed voters who voted for Trump ever figure out that they were lied to?

2. If so, how long will it take?

3. What will happen to the market and Tesla if and when they do?

1. They already know they were lied to, they didn't care

2. See above.

3. Not much, IMO, because of the above.

 

[Snerruc]

Moderators, can't you remove the political stuff from this thread and some others? Isn't this site supposed to be about cars? Thanks

 

[JRP3]

This is the investment section, and, unfortunately politics plays a part in how the investment may turn out.

 

[AudubonB]

No; those posts were rants. I'm leaving them up for the moment more or less just as demonstrations of what is not permitted.

If anyone thinks that post #1683 provides any value, any insight to the investment world, it's probably better he or she posts elsewhere.

 

[JRP3]

It was an answer to questions asked, and quite likely correct. The most pertinent to investing would be the answer to #3. No ranting involved.

 

[DaveT]

Tesla Motors Stock Will Sell Off Into 2016 but then Stage a Huge Rally to $500

Interesting article from 15 months ago. Seems like they got the first move (sell off into 2016) correct. We'll see if they get the second move (rally to $500 by 2020) right.

 

[DaveT]

Tesla Motors Stock Will Sell Off Into 2016 but then Stage a Huge Rally to $500

Interesting article from 15 months ago. Seems like they got the first move (sell off into 2016) correct. We'll see if they get the second move (rally to $500 by 2020) right.

Another more recent article from the same author back in November... predicting rise to $250.
Tesla's Time is Now ... Again

 

[GoTslaGo]

Another more recent article from the same author back in November... predicting rise to $250.
Tesla's Time is Now ... Again

I may have to actually follow this guy...

 

[aubreymcfato]

Is he predicting a dip, in the last weeks? I'm sure this is the question many of us have now. Wait for a possible dip or buy at 250?

 

[DaveT]

As a shareholder, I'm very concerned about Elon's involvement in the Trump admin. It appears Elon's participation in Trump's advisory councils is being seen by some as lending credibility to and legitimizing the Trump admin. While we don't know the exact numbers, it's clearly aggravating and alienating some of Tesla's core customers, even to the point of some cancelling reservations.

While the exact number of people cancelling reservations might not be that high (or it might be, we just don't know), I'm more concerned about the loss of affinity toward the Tesla brand by some of Tesla's core constituency if Elon continues to be involved in Trump's advisory councils. This loss of affinity is extremely difficult to quantify, but could have a deep impact if the trend continues.

Is it really essential that Elon stay officially involved in Trump's admin via advisory councils? Or can Elon accomplish most of his objectives via private lobbying or even funding (or even starting) a private lobbying organization.

If Elon resigns from the advisory councils, perhaps Elon can avoid alienating an increasing number of Tesla's core customers. And further, I don't see much negative if Elon resigns. Trump does not have much leverage over Tesla, since Tesla's cars are manufactured in the U.S. and Trump is not able to place tariffs on Tesla's cars. Trump could possibly remove the federal tax credit for EVs, but that would hurt competitors more than it will Tesla. Trump could possibly remove solar subsidies (ITC) but solar revenue isn't a major revenue generator for Tesla, especially after Model 3 ramps, and Tesla will still have the rest of the world as a market for its solar products.

Now, I know it's difficult to have an online discussion about politics without some person or persons interfering with pushing political beliefs. So, if you're going to reply to this or in this thread, please do not push political views. Rather, only contribute if you have something substantial to share that will add value to the discussion.

 

[hpartsch]

As a shareholder, I'm very concerned about Elon's involvement in the Trump admin. It appears Elon's participation in Trump's advisory councils is being seen by some as lending credibility to and legitimizing the Trump admin. While we don't know the exact numbers, it's clearly aggravating and alienating some of Tesla's core customers, even to the point of some cancelling reservations.

While the exact number of people cancelling reservations might not be that high (or it might be, we just don't know), I'm more concerned about the loss of affinity toward the Tesla brand by some of Tesla's core constituency if Elon continues to be involved in Trump's advisory councils. This loss of affinity is extremely difficult to quantify, but could have a deep impact if the trend continues.

Is it really essential that Elon stay officially involved in Trump's admin via advisory councils? Or can Elon accomplish most of his objectives via private lobbying or even funding (or even starting) a private lobbying organization.

If Elon resigns from the advisory councils, perhaps Elon can avoid alienating an increasing number of Tesla's core customers. And further, I don't see much negative if Elon resigns. Trump does not have much leverage over Tesla, since Tesla's cars are manufactured in the U.S. and Trump is not able to place tariffs on Tesla's cars. Trump could possibly remove the federal tax credit for EVs, but that would hurt competitors more than it will Tesla. Trump could possibly remove solar subsidies (ITC) but solar revenue isn't a major revenue generator for Tesla, especially after Model 3 ramps, and Tesla will still have the rest of the world as a market for its solar products.

Now, I know it's difficult to have an online discussion about politics without some person or persons interfering with pushing political beliefs. So, if you're going to reply to this or in this thread, please do not push political views. Rather, only contribute if you have something substantial to share that will add value to the discussion.

You could also argue that others may be attracted to the company due to this affiliation -- a lot of the country did and continues to support Trump. Check out Macy's stock price after trump retaliated/attacked. Granted a lot of other factors could be in play; however, other similar retailers were doing good during this same time span. In the grand scheme of things, I don't think this will have any negligible effect. If he was bashing Tesla, the story might be different.

 

[30seconds]

Got to remember that Elon is also trying to get to Mars. That's an endeavor that is very dependent on government funding.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

As a shareholder, I'm very concerned about Elon's involvement in the Trump admin. It appears Elon's participation in Trump's advisory councils is being seen by some as lending credibility to and legitimizing the Trump admin. While we don't know the exact numbers, it's clearly aggravating and alienating some of Tesla's core customers, even to the point of some cancelling reservations.

While the exact number of people cancelling reservations might not be that high (or it might be, we just don't know), I'm more concerned about the loss of affinity toward the Tesla brand by some of Tesla's core constituency if Elon continues to be involved in Trump's advisory councils. This loss of affinity is extremely difficult to quantify, but could have a deep impact if the trend continues.

Is it really essential that Elon stay officially involved in Trump's admin via advisory councils? Or can Elon accomplish most of his objectives via private lobbying or even funding (or even starting) a private lobbying organization.

If Elon resigns from the advisory councils, perhaps Elon can avoid alienating an increasing number of Tesla's core customers. And further, I don't see much negative if Elon resigns. Trump does not have much leverage over Tesla, since Tesla's cars are manufactured in the U.S. and Trump is not able to place tariffs on Tesla's cars. Trump could possibly remove the federal tax credit for EVs, but that would hurt competitors more than it will Tesla. Trump could possibly remove solar subsidies (ITC) but solar revenue isn't a major revenue generator for Tesla, especially after Model 3 ramps, and Tesla will still have the rest of the world as a market for its solar products.

Now, I know it's difficult to have an online discussion about politics without some person or persons interfering with pushing political beliefs. So, if you're going to reply to this or in this thread, please do not push political views. Rather, only contribute if you have something substantial to share that will add value to the discussion.

Dave you can't have it both ways. The course EM is taking will make Tesla become more main stream thus better for most everyone. You are asking Tesla to be true to its core fans yet as an investor you are looking for extraordinary return going forward. One gives and rarely can you have both. Again we can use the Apple comparison. Remember one can argue that the reservation holders that canceled aren't true fans to begin with. Or arguably Tesla will lose its specialness as it gets bigger and more common.

I have always felt Trump will do more good for TSLA and Tesla from the beginning than most would give credit. I know (or feel) I'm the minority thinking this here but thinking he will hurt companies like Tesla rooted from (Media, Democrats' bias, extremist hatters, etc..) FUD . I have also always thought EM and Trump are uncanny similar thus therefore never worried about the Trump fears as you mentioned. Many times my point of views of the other side are similar to your thoughts about Tesla perma bears' spin on Tesla of most we call it FUD.

One has to take a step back and ask what if I'm looking at it wrong. Maybe I am the one but that still doesn't change my Tesla investment thesis. Do you feel you may want to cancel your M3 reservation because of what EM is doing? If not you are seeing overly dramatic people with selfish agenda clouding your judgement. It's call politics for a reason.

 

[techmaven]

As @30seconds says, Elon Musk has no choice but to engage the Trump administration due to the SpaceX side of things. There are plenty of Republicans that will go to bat for ULA and therefore Musk has to engage the administration, even just for the commercial crew contract much less additional funding for Mars. With him being there, he might has well pitch for Tesla too. For those that are off put by his presence with Trump, several points: do you believe that Musk's mission that he has been working at for his entire adult life has changed in the past 2-3 months? Do you believe he is forced to participate or he is ideologically aligned with the new administration? And if you don't buy a vehicle from Tesla, who do you thrown in with that are more aligned with your interests? There are no other companies looking to and as capable of bringing about disruptive change in lowering the carbon impact of transportation.

 

[callmesam]

Elon is doing a great job of managing competing needs. Take a look at how Uber screwed the pooch.

First Uber joins Trump's Advisory Council.
Uber, SpaceX/Tesla, and PepsiCo execs join Trump business council

Then they undermine the Taxi strike and get caught in the "deleted Uber" vise, losing 200,000 customers in 24 hours.
#DeleteUber reportedly led 200,000 people to delete their accounts

Then Uber panics and publicly withdraws from the business council.
200,000 Uber Users Have Deleted the App

Finally, Trump publicly confronts and promised retribution toward Uber.
Trump ticked off at Uber

Kalanick got Trumped, while Elon is playing chess. Elon is presenting changes to immigration policy, while Kalanick just castrated himself.

"It's not Tesla vs Uber. It's the people vs Uber" - Elon Musk

Mod - potentially misleading typo corrected

 

[AlMc]

I agree that I would rather have EM on the advisory council than have him quit. I want him in face to face meetings and having the Trump Administration on speed dial versus him being on the outside looking in. IMO, rational people can see that one can be part of the council without endorsing Trump and all his policies. It is called politics and I believe EM can play the game.

Yes, some feel that EM/TM will lose some of his/it's luster/brand image. People who chose to either not place a reservation or cancel an existing reservation are certainly entitled to do so but I would ask (as I have on other threads): 'Is this not cutting one's nose off to spit one's face?' Being ideologically pure has it's share of consequences as well. Will they buy an ICE vehicle? Will they buy a ICE manufacturer's hybrid and/or compliance EV and celebrate that they did the right thing?

I believe being part of the advisory council is a net positive for EM/Tesla not a net negative.

As for his interests in SpaceX: That is a no brainer for EM. There he definitely has an ALL positive (no net positive versus net negative there) as others have mentioned.

 

[pGo]

I think Elon has no choice but to take on the opportunity presented to him. Knowing his work ethics, I think he'll present a bright future and try to convince Trump that it's within a striking distance if certain policies are implemented.

He'll have to show solar jobs account for a lot more jobs than wind gas and coal combined.

He'll have to convince Trump that going on the electric bandwagon has a chance to one up the Germans and Japanese and Chinese and create the whole new industry that benefits all in America and around the world.

If he has no access to Trump, it's given that solar will lose and electric cars penetration slows down due to EPA rule changes.

And in 6 months, if Trump doesn't get it, Elon can walk away with a thought that he tried his best.

 

[wdolson]

I think Elon being on the committee is smart and I don't think he will ever drink the Kool Aid this administration is serving up. You can learn so much about a potential opponent by pretending to go along with their plan. Or just find out the real story.

I've done it from time to time. Just play along and make people think you believe everything they are pitching, all the while making notes. I'm decent at it, but my SO is a master. With people she trusts she's very honest and straightforward, but anyone who doesn't seem right, she plays along like she believes their whole story until she figures out where they're lying. She's outstanding at interviewing perpetrators she always figures out their lies by the end of the first interview.

I don't think it was wise to say anything one way or the other about Rex Tillerson, but maybe Elon is playing a deeper game?