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Articles/megaposts by sleepyhead

sleepyhead

Active Member
May 31, 2013
1,896
11
Texas
Please click on the link below to find my Q3 earnings preview and to download my Excel model. I appreciate everyone's hard work here on TMC; without it I would not be able to put together such a comprehensive preview:

tcinvestor

Highlights:

Q3:
5,700 cars delivered,
$633 million in revenue
$0.34 EPS
22% gross margin excl. ZEV

I will stop by later to discuss my article; we will keep the discussion here on TMC. I am on vacation now and I am going to the beach to relax and enjoy the solar rally that is going on today and over the past year.

Cheers,

sleepyhead

- - - Updated - - -

Please do your own due diligence before investing. I have done mine and taken some TSLA positions today accordingly.
 
@sleepyhead:

You have "23.4% gross margin including all credit sales" for FY13. That's impossible.

Q1 and Q2 margins were far below the 23% level. For Q3 and Q4 to bring the annual average margin up to 23%, they would have to feature margin of over 30% (ballpark figures).

In any case, it was clear in the Q2 earning call that the goal was to achieve 25% margin in Q4, not to realize FY13 25% margin overall by Q4 end.
 
23.4% gross margin for FY13 includes ZEV credits. There is no error in my estimates in this case.
Hey Sleepy, the formatting of the page is screwed up (at least on Chrome).
I know the site was having issues with certain browsers before, I just wanted to let you know so you can fix it if you have access to the web server.
 

sleepyhead

Active Member
May 31, 2013
1,896
11
Texas
Hey Sleepy, the formatting of the page is screwed up (at least on Chrome).
I know the site was having issues with certain browsers before, I just wanted to let you know so you can fix it if you have access to the web server.

Thanks for the heads up. I never had issues on my Nexus 10 before. We will look into it.

In the mean time what do you all think about my estimates?

I think that eps of 0.30 is a good starting point and it can go +/- 0.10 in either direction.
 

aznt1217

Active Member
Aug 27, 2012
2,560
1,870
New York, NY
Thanks for the heads up. I never had issues on my Nexus 10 before. We will look into it.

In the mean time what do you all think about my estimates?

I think that eps of 0.30 is a good starting point and it can go +/- 0.10 in either direction.

I think it's a very fair estimate. Not too far off from Wall St. Whisper numbers. The big question is the ZEV credits (because nobody knows the distribution of the Euro cars) and how much the price increases helped on the % margin. Thanks for pulling together the in depth analysis. I've been wanting to do this but other obligations have been keeping me. The range also seems very fair as well-- depending on the amount of deliveries.
 
Thanks, Sleepy. Great stuff. Three questions.

1. Your models are forecasting significantly higher EPS than the highest consensus estimates, per your notes at tcinvestor . Based on past quarterly beats by TSLA, if the Q3 numbers come in near your numbers, what would that mean for analyst consensus estimates for 2014 and 2015?

2. In the Stanford video, I think Elon was quoted as being inclined to keep lid on short term earnings growth in favor of increased investment. If EPS comes in where you forecast, might Tesla be inclined to ramp up investments to bring that down in coming quarters?

3. What impact from the fires, if any, are you forecasting for Q4?

thanks again.
 

c041v

Member
Supporting Member
Jan 7, 2013
720
2,716
Vancouver, BC
Thanks for the post Sleepyhead.

I'm wondering how much of the increase in R&D will come from Gen III? There's got to be a few teams of engineers working on it now, and I would think with the big cash stockpile raised from the secondary that their may be less resistance to be extremely conservative in getting Gen III going as long as they don't make it look like they are vaporizing cash. Just my thoughts.
 
Thanks for the heads up. I never had issues on my Nexus 10 before. We will look into it.

In the mean time what do you all think about my estimates?

I think that eps of 0.30 is a good starting point and it can go +/- 0.10 in either direction.
I came up with ~0.21 with slightly lower production rate and lower ASP... I think I was being a bit too conservative though.
The absolute bottom I see is $0.17. I don't see any way they could have a lower number than that... That being said, in order for us to see ATH or anything that can be considered a good move on the upside, I think we need an EPS of $0.25 with increasing this years guidance and next year's guidance.
I think that they are definitely going to increase this year's guidance to about 21,500 cars and then actually end up delivering around 22,200... The bigger boost would be from increased GM ex zev. credits. But I think they will maintain this at 25% and end up doing 27%+ for next quarter.
I'm looking for a 41K guidance for FY14. I think this is reasonable to expect, and that leaves them plenty of room to increase guidance as the year goes on. In reality I expect them to deliver 50K+ next year. This is going to be the big one. Anything that shows less than 100% YoY growth will not be looked upon well by the street and this will be the make or break for the quarter.

Lets hope some of the smarter analysts read this forums and figure out the correct questions to ask during the Q&A.
 

brianstorms

Member
Apr 2, 2013
751
3
...
Formatting's messed up on Firefox as well. One paragraph plotting on top of another.

Quick screen grab snippet:

sleepy.jpg
 
Looks fine to me on Chrome.
Okay then it might just be me... Chrome tends to act weird on Linux with SSDs... It looks fine for me on Firefox but on Chrome the GM and Supply constraint paragraphs are on top of each other...

Looks like brainstorms beat me to it :)
I'm seeing the same thing on Chrome, but its fine on Firefox...
Are you on a Linux distro. brainstroms?
 

sleepyhead

Active Member
May 31, 2013
1,896
11
Texas
Thanks, Sleepy. Great stuff. Three questions.

1. Your models are forecasting significantly higher EPS than the highest consensus estimates, per your notes at tcinvestor . Based on past quarterly beats by TSLA, if the Q3 numbers come in near your numbers, what would that mean for analyst consensus estimates for 2014 and 2015?

2. In the Stanford video, I think Elon was quoted as being inclined to keep lid on short term earnings growth in favor of increased investment. If EPS comes in where you forecast, might Tesla be inclined to ramp up investments to bring that down in coming quarters?

3. What impact from the fires, if any, are you forecasting for Q4?

thanks again.

1. Please find my Q2 ER preview hear on TMC. In it you will find ridiculously low FY13 EPS estimates compared to now.

2. Elon said that 2015 will be the year for high EPS. I take this as give or take $10 EPS in 2015 and a few bucks in 2014.

3. I can't see fires having big financial impact on Tesla. Maybe only on TSLA.
 

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