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Articles/megaposts by sleepyhead
- Thread starter sleepyhead
- Start date
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
@Sleepy
I liked very much your article and in particular I liked this paragraph:
I am proud to be a Tesla shareholder, because I know that Elon Musk and company are fighting the good fight, as are the company’s supporters, fans, shareholders, and vehicle owners. I am positive that the company’s customer oriented focus will allow it to overcome all obstacles and achieve its mission “to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.” Tesla does right by its customers; for that reason I am willing to fight for Tesla, and can’t wait until the day I become a customer myself. I am also confident that if Tesla does meet its goals then the share price will be a lot higher in the future than it is today. And even though I don’t see failure as an option for Tesla, if for some reason the company was to fail and the stock was to go worthless, at least I will know that I invested in a company that was fighting for a greater cause; that is something I could stomach losing money over.
The media may have won the battle against Tesla this time, but I am confident that Tesla, ultimately, will win the war.
I liked very much your article and in particular I liked this paragraph:
I am proud to be a Tesla shareholder, because I know that Elon Musk and company are fighting the good fight, as are the company’s supporters, fans, shareholders, and vehicle owners. I am positive that the company’s customer oriented focus will allow it to overcome all obstacles and achieve its mission “to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.” Tesla does right by its customers; for that reason I am willing to fight for Tesla, and can’t wait until the day I become a customer myself. I am also confident that if Tesla does meet its goals then the share price will be a lot higher in the future than it is today. And even though I don’t see failure as an option for Tesla, if for some reason the company was to fail and the stock was to go worthless, at least I will know that I invested in a company that was fighting for a greater cause; that is something I could stomach losing money over.
The media may have won the battle against Tesla this time, but I am confident that Tesla, ultimately, will win the war.
pz1975
Active Member
Anyone have an account on Stocktwits? Linking it on there would be a good idea - help combat some of the FUD spewed on there.
Permission granted. If you like the article and think it is worth sharing then I would love for you to share it with whomever you like.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Thanks.
I am swinging for the fences and loading up on JASO. It is not the obvious play and might even backfire on me, but I am going for the home run. I think that they will deliver in 2014; just may not be immediately, but I like to get in early.
Wow, thank you for the kind words! My family, my job and my "extracurricular activities" are so time-consuming right now that I just pop by in-between things to follow a few favorite threads (among which this is definitively one). I will not be able to make good contributions over the next 5 months or so at least.
I've put some "play money" into JASO without doing a tad of research on it, which is a first for me. Sleepy is betting on JASO, and I am betting on Sleepy. (No worries, Sleepy, if it goes to hell I won't blame you at all... much). ;-)
Sorry, DP, but I think we're gonna need another tsunamometer update after today...
Thanks, and I hope to see you post on TMC a lot more often in 5 months with your great analysis.
Common shares, Leaps or shorter-term calls, bossman?
Mostly shares and LEAPS. I have been buying up LEAPS last month when it was around $8.50. Now that my CSIQ, JKS, and TSL shares have done really well in my retirement accounts I sold them all last week and have loaded up on JASO in my 401k and IRA; by next week I should have 1 share of TSLA and the rest in JASO; my DCA is about $10. Both those retirement accounts were up 400% in 2013, so i am taking a huge risk here. I own about 1/5000th worth of the company in shares alone, not counting my options positions.
Now that JASO pulled back again to $9, this time I have been loading up on Jun options. June is about as short as I might go, because the company never issues PR's and just sits quiet. The stock can stay stagnant for another 6 months or longer before it takes off, that is of course if it ever does take off.
Basically right now, I am about 40% - 50% in JASO, 30% in TSLA and the rest in CSIQ, SPWR, and JKS. It is a big bet, but I like their good balance sheet, high quality/high efficiency products, and the very low market cap. I am fairly optimistic that, unless there is a big recession or sector-wide sell-off in 2014, JASO will at least not go down much from here. I think that JASO offers the most downside protection of all Chinese solar stocks, and could turn out to be a huge winner in 2014 if everything goes their way.
I think that the biggest risk is that CSIQ doubles from here while JASO stays flat, but I honestly can't see that happening unless JASO has skeletons in its closet. And we all know that could be the case, just as it was with SOL (skeletons can pop up from any of the Chinese solar companies, so watch out).
There is a lot going on with JASO, and it is on the brink of profitability. If it gets there and stays there then the stock will go up a lot; but it is not a certainty it will. I think it will, but that is just looking into a crystal ball, because we don't know how the industry dynamics will develop this year.
JASO has a lot of warrants outstanding, so these have been dragging down the stock price. Highest strike is $10.90, and once JASO goes above $10.90 and stays there it will mean that the market has finally accepted the dilution and is ready to move on. The dilution to 60m shares outstanding would add another $200m of cash into their pockets and vastly improve their already great balance sheet. That is another reason I like JASO - it will not have to go back for another secondary any time soon IMO; just like JKS did today and the stock is going down.
If you do invest in JASO, then please do your own research because even though I like what I see, a lot of people might not like it. It is more of a "where the puck is going to be" type of play. I think JASO is a coin flip: 100%+ in 2014 or ~(-30% to +30%, i.e. flat) if things don't go well for them. I like that risk/reward ratio.
There, put out an update. The really funny thing I see in the underlying data is that shorts seem to have "averaged up" - short interest was lower when the stock tanked, and then more shorts accumulated during the dip. A true muhaha moment.
When you buy LEAPS, how do you decide on the strike? Are you picking something fairly deep ITM as a cheaper version of the stock?
Sleepyhead I appreciate your sharing of your trading strategies as for me it is educational. Grateful reader here.
If I understand your post correctly your plan is to liquidate your TSLA substantial position, 30% of your portfolio, by next week. Now I am curious of the reason to hold one share of TSLA, if you care to comment.
If I understand your post correctly your plan is to liquidate your TSLA substantial position, 30% of your portfolio, by next week. Now I am curious of the reason to hold one share of TSLA, if you care to comment.
When I buy options I will mix and match across expiration dates and strike prices to balance things out. I used to buy way deep OTM LEAPS to get the best bang for the buck if the stock does triple. But nowadays I buy slightly OTM LEAPS and then will sell front month call options to generate income (and eventually get burned every now and then if the stock runs too fast).
I have never bought deep ITM LEAPS before, but that is a "safer" way to play and is essentially the same as buying stock on margin - although you might be better off buying 100% ITM LEAPS than paying margin interest. It is still 2x leverage and a good margin replacement strategy with similar risks
My TSLA position is mostly J16 LEAPS, with some J15 LEAPS, and a bunch of Junes mixed in. I sold the rest of my TSLA shares to buy JASO shares. I still have about 30%-40% of my money in TSLA now, since I think that the short term favors the longs.
I hold one share of TSLA as a hedge.
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