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Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

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Odd that there is no mention of Volvo, whose Chinese ownership gives it an advantage in a huge market.

Comparison of investment commitments ignores the fact that Tesla must invest heavily because it lacks factory infrastructure while MB, VW, et al can simply convert existing factories to electric vehicles.

Building EVs without an adequate supply of batteries is building a fleet of lawn ornaments. The article was making the point that none of the other major automakers are doing what's necessary to secure a large enough supply to compete with Tesla before the middle of the 2020s. Most battery makers are scaling up production, but supply outside of China is going to be thin if anybody wants to mass produce an EV other than Tesla.

China is building factories to make cells for domestic consumption, but their market should be considered a separate market, few Chinese designs could meet regulatory approval outside of China and we don't know what kind of quality Chinese cells can be. Most Chinese manufacturers try to get away with the poorest quality possible.

The article did leave out Volvo, but their production is only around 500K a year for all models. By 2019 they will probably be making fewer cars than Tesla.

The article also left out most of the Japanese and Korean car makers. The Koreans are taking things a bit more seriously and are coming out with EVs and PHEVs, but most of the Japanese makers are still in compliance car land with no strategy to scale up. If Toyota wanted to mass produce a BEV, they have the production capacity to make gliders, but they don't have a battery supply locked down.
 
Odd that there is no mention of Volvo, whose Chinese ownership gives it an advantage in a huge market.

Comparison of investment commitments ignores the fact that Tesla must invest heavily because it lacks factory infrastructure while MB, VW, et al can simply convert existing factories to electric vehicles.

This basically requires throwing away everything in the factory except the building shell and the paint shop, but hey, sure, they can "simply convert existing factories".
 
Building EVs without an adequate supply of batteries is building a fleet of lawn ornaments. The article was making the point that none of the other major automakers are doing what's necessary to secure a large enough supply to compete with Tesla before the middle of the 2020s. Most battery makers are scaling up production, but supply outside of China is going to be thin if anybody wants to mass produce an EV other than Tesla.

China is building factories to make cells for domestic consumption, but their market should be considered a separate market, few Chinese designs could meet regulatory approval outside of China and we don't know what kind of quality Chinese cells can be. Most Chinese manufacturers try to get away with the poorest quality possible.

The article did leave out Volvo, but their production is only around 500K a year for all models. By 2019 they will probably be making fewer cars than Tesla.

The article also left out most of the Japanese and Korean car makers. The Koreans are taking things a bit more seriously and are coming out with EVs and PHEVs, but most of the Japanese makers are still in compliance car land with no strategy to scale up. If Toyota wanted to mass produce a BEV, they have the production capacity to make gliders, but they don't have a battery supply locked down.

The only automaker who has announced significant battery production plans that I'm aware of is Daimler/MB. I think they will be a survivor through this major change because they're taking it seriously. Perhaps because they learned something from their early investment and manufacturing partnership with Tesla.
 
The only automaker who has announced significant battery production plans that I'm aware of is Daimler/MB. I think they will be a survivor through this major change because they're taking it seriously. Perhaps because they learned something from their early investment and manufacturing partnership with Tesla.

VW has planned to build their own gigafactory, but they don't plan to be in full production until 2025. All the plans I've seen for Daimler is to expand their battery pack production significantly, but still source their cells from Asia. I would assume they locked down a good contract for cells, otherwise they will be in the mad scrum to source batteries when the crunch comes.

I see more seriousness about EVs in Europe than in the US or among the Japanese and Korean automakers. Most European automakers have seen sales for at least one of their car lines decline since the Model S was introduced. The top tier sedan market is small, but the Model S has dominated it for a few years now. Additionally they are facing a lot more regulatory pressure to go electric as a lot of European cities and some European countries are banning ICE from part or all of their country.

Between those two pressures, most of the European car makers are giving more focus on electrics than anywhere else. The only exception is Fiat who seems to have their head in the sand. As the article points out though, even most of the Europeans don't have a clear strategy to electrify their fleets.

I think the US Big 3 are in deep trouble in a few years. Tesla might end up merging with one of them, which would be ironic.
 
But this time I agree with his observation. Some analysts are going way overboard pumping TSLA with astronomical predictions.

I think both you and DeBord misunderstand the marketing term "addressable market" used by investor Munster. He did not say Tesla will sell 11 million cars thanks to the Model 3, he said that the Model 3 expands Tesla's addressable market to 11 million cars because its lower fuel and maintenance costs make total cost of ownership closer to that of a Toyota Camry (in the mid $20K range?). The market for cars $35K and up is about 4 million, whereas the market for cars in the Camry's price range and up is 11 million.

I found the DeBord story on Yahoo! Finance where they have comments, and commented on it accordingly.
Tesla mania has reached a comical level
 
There is an extremely shallow article on Slezeking Alfalfa by Montana Skeptic
He references the Matrix series of movies and the "Blue Pill/red pill option" and completely misses the message of the Movie.
There is the usual question, will longs hold for the long term (yes, AAPL which i missed 31 years ago i could have purchased for 52 cents a share and made $288/share profit, so yes i'm a very long term holder)
BUT back to the Matrix reference, Neo was not a savior, Morpheus was not a savior, ALL humans were unknowing pets of the Machines and the 2 main AI's, the Oracle and the other more metal one. They were bored and played a joke on their human pets, and in the final minute of you see the 2 AI's "walking off arm in arm" planning their next joke. Smith was just an aberrant aspect, and Montana just still doesn't "get it", even when "it" is pointed out so i suggested he take ALL his remaining cash, margin, everything and sell $50 and $100 puts of 1/18/2019 whilst i "vaca" in hawaii, eating tropical fruit, lollygagging about, loving life, thanking him for paying for me (his minions cruise this site SO i'm messaging him from here)
SO Montana S, love from Bob, hugz and whatev
 
there was a comment asking for financials, and complaining all they got was gibberish to them, yet if you read the complaint, and understand, it really is the financials presented in a different way,
a multidimensional "look see" that if you THINK, is a succinct answer that they just cannot see/comprehend the embedded hyperlinks
----------snip-------

produce a plausible detailed financial model. I've asked for it dozens of times. The Tesla-cult response to my financial model requests is always the same:

"Rockets, barges, tunnels, hyperloop,
genius, Mars, disruptive, Apple,
Amazon, fastest car ever, safest car ever, best car ever,
saving humanity, saving the earth, saving all plants and animals,
climate change, icebergs, polar bears,
sea-level rise, stock price, evil shorts, evil ICE,
evil stealerships, evil legacy OEMs, music streaming,
pick-up trucks, Model Y, Model 3, semi-trucks,
self-driving, autonomous,
revolutionary, machine that builds the machine, domination,
 
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400,000 cars x .25 margin x 42,000 ASP + 100,000 cars x .25 margin x 80,000 ASP + (etc. for other products) - 3 billion / year SG&A
There's your financial model. :) (Yeah, there's a lot of variation you can do on this)
too easy to understand. like mine better, you just need to think in multiple dimensions with those being the links and fluid links, perhaps tesseract like