ARV vs MSRP (and used pricing) for Model Y Competitors (Mach-E, iD, Ariya)

[Lostthebeat]

For the mass market Small Electric SUV market set to explode over the next year with so many new entries, where will actual out the door pricing be compared to original MSRP after 2+ year on the market?

Should we be expecting a Chevrolet Bolt and Nissan Leaf-like situation? New models for 30% off and 3 year old used models going for 40-50% off? Or will values hold up better since these are SUVs?

 

[CapeOne]

In general, crossovers and SUVs have better resales but I would expect ongoing price volatility in the EV market thanks to new competition, EV credit changes (expiring), production efficiencies, improvements, etc.

One reason why new Bolts are now "30% off" is because the BEV federal tax credit for GM vehicles went from $7,500 a year and a half ago to $0 six months ago and GM made up the difference with factory rebates. Similar things will likely happen with other automakers as their own federal tax credits eventually expire.

 

[vickh]

One reason why new Bolts are now "30% off" is because the BEV federal tax credit for GM vehicles went from $7,500 a year and a half ago to $0 six months ago and GM made up the difference with factory rebates. Similar things will likely happen with other automakers as their own federal tax credits eventually expire.

Tesla did that for a while with tax credits, but no more (i guess demand is strong) Best resale value by far (more than new sometimes!)

 

[CapeOne]

Tesla did that for a while with tax credits, but no more (i guess demand is strong) Best resale value by far (more than new sometimes!)

Tesla resale values on average are not as good as they used to be. People buying new Teslas today expecting them in two or three years to still be worth 90% of what they paid will likely be in for a rude awakening. There have already been 2020 Model 3s less than ONE year old, for example, with asking prices 85% to 90% of original retail and the Model 3 is one of the better/best Teslas as far as resale. Plus, wholesale/trade-in numbers would be even lower.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

In general, crossovers and SUVs have better resales but I would expect ongoing price volatility in the EV market thanks to new competition, EV credit changes (expiring), production efficiencies, improvements, etc.

One reason why new Bolts are now "30% off" is because the BEV federal tax credit for GM vehicles went from $7,500 a year and a half ago to $0 six months ago and GM made up the difference with factory rebates. Similar things will likely happen with other automakers as their own federal tax credits eventually expire.

Yes but even in Canada bolts are a hard sell. There are literally brand new 2019’s on the lots here in BC.

 

[CapeOne]

Yes but even in Canada bolts are a hard sell. There are literally brand new 2019’s on the lots here in BC.

Yeah, it can happen. There have historically been new "last year" model Teslas for sale well into the new calendar year too.

Back in June of this year, someone even posted on here about buying not a new 2019 but a new 2018 Model S from Tesla with less than 100 miles on it.

Even though overall Chevrolet sales are down nearly 17% in the U.S. so far this year, Bolt sales are actually up 7.2%.

 

[vickh]

Tesla resale values on average are not as good as they used to be. People buying new Teslas today expecting them in two or three years to still be worth 90% of what they paid will likely be in for a rude awakening. There have already been 2020 Model 3s less than ONE year old, for example, with asking prices 85% to 90% of original retail and the Model 3 is one of the better/best Teslas as far as resale..

Does that 90%factor in tax credits (about 10% of an 3 SR)?

 

[CapeOne]

Does that 90%factor in tax credits (about 10% of an 3 SR)?

No, because Tesla’s federal tax credits expired by the end of calendar 2019 and most states don't have meaningful, if any, tax credits.

 

[vickh]

No, because Tesla’s federal tax credits expired by the end of calendar 2019 and most states don't have meaningful, if any, tax credits.

I meant that expiration as a good thing, IF I get to price my used 19 SR at 90% today's 35K price, and keep the credit.

 

[CapeOne]

I meant that expiration as a good thing, IF I get to price my used 19 SR at 90% today's 35K price, and keep the credit.

My point was people buying new Teslas today should not expect resale values to be as good as they may have been in the past. I used 2020 M3s (one of Tesla's best resale value models) as an example where many have already had asking prices 10% to 15% below original retail and these are used retail asking prices, not wholesale/trade values. Wholesale/trade values would be even lower.

A few current examples with very low miles, clean histories, etc.:

Original retail $49,190
Tesla Price $44,200
89.9% of original retail
2020 Model 3 | Tesla

Original retail $50,190
Tesla Price $43,700
87.1% of original retail
2020 Model 3 | Tesla

Original retail $51,690
Tesla Price $44,600
86.3% of original retail
2020 Model 3 | Tesla

 

[dipper]

Should just buy a Toyota FJCruiser or a Honda S2000 if resale value is important to them. Have anyone seen their resale value?

 

[30seconds]

Of course there isn't much of a reason to sell your Tesla. There is basically no maintenance, they upgrade themselves and as long as you keep it clean and shiny it remains more or less a new car.