Assuming 8% annual improvement in range...

[LASpark]

I know it's dangerous to simply extrapolate, but I read that an 8% annual improvement in range is hard work, but doable. So without any major breakthroughs in battery technology, this is what you might see. In 2030 the high end Model S will go 1000 miles before charging! Eventually the car will go further than people care to drive in a single day. The lower end models will still need the SuperCharger network, but the expensive models will be able to skip them entirely.

Look for the new improved Model S in 2017 with a 125 KWh battery.

Year	KWh	Range
2012	85	265
2013	92	286
2014	99	309
2015	107	334
2016	116	361
2017	125	389
2018	135	421
2019	146	454
2020	157	490
2021	170	530
2022	184	572
2023	198	618
2024	214	667
2025	231	721
2026	250	778
2027	270	841
2028	291	908
2029	315	981
2030	340	1059

 

[vfx]

I know its dangerous to simply extrapolate, but I read that an 8% annual improvement in range is hard work, but doable. So without any major breakthroughs in battery technology, this is what you might see. In 2030 the high end Model S will go 1000 miles before charging!

Year	KWh	Range
2012	85	265
2013	92	286
2014	99	309
2015	107	334
2016	116	361
2017	125	389
2018	135	421
2019	146	454
2020	157	490
2021	170	530
2022	184	572
2023	198	618
2024	214	667
2025	231	721
2026	250	778
2027	270	841
2028	291	908
2029	315	981
2030	340	1059

I belive JB said this has been going on since 1992. Roadster probably locked in 2006

Tesla has said they would upgrade every 5 years so maybe you can highlight 2017, 2022. and 2027. And by the time a car can do 500 miles on a single charge, (2020) the naysayers should pretty much be done. (Especially with a fully populated Superstation network).

 

[LASpark]

Okay, I highlighted those years, thanks.

 

[dirkhh]

I know it's dangerous to simply extrapolate, but I read that an 8% annual improvement in range is hard work, but doable. So without any major breakthroughs in battery technology, this is what you might see. In 2030 the high end Model S will go 1000 miles before charging! Eventually the car will go further than people care to drive in a single day. The lower end models will still need the SuperCharger network, but the expensive models will be able to skip them entirely.

Look for the new improved Model S in 2017 with a 125 KWh battery.

Year	KWh	Range
2012	85	265
2017	125	389
2022	184	572
2027	270	841

Simplistic extrapolation is indeed often dangerous. Yet things like Moore's Law show us that these can be true for a remarkably long time. So I don't think this list is too far off - but I'd love to see some past data to put this in perspective.
My guess is that we'll see some tapering off towards a lighter car, though, as ranges beyond 500-600 miles don't seem useful (you have to take breaks, anyway, and in ten years we will have charging options most anywhere).

 

[LASpark]

I agree that after 600 miles it becomes somewhat academic, although very aggressive driving can reduce the range to only 2/3 of the stated range. A 900 mile range car might only go 600 miles if driven like a maniac.

 

[dirkhh]

I agree that after 600 miles it becomes somewhat academic, although very aggressive driving can reduce the range to only 2/3 of the stated range. A 900 mile range car might only go 600 miles if driven like a maniac.

That's a very good point. A 900 mile range car might become a very realistic 900km range car on the Autobahn...
So I take it back, we do need that 2027 / 270kWh car...

 

[Zythryn]

I doubt we will see much, if any range increase.

Rather, we will see a decrease in manufacturing costs and possibly a decrease in the Model S price.

I think the number of people that would not buy a 265 range Model S in 2017 but would buy a 389 range Model S is not worth the cost.

 

[dirkhh]

I doubt we will see much, if any range increase.

Rather, we will see a decrease in manufacturing costs and possibly a decrease in the Model S price.

I think the number of people that would not buy a 265 range Model S in 2017 but would buy a 389 range Model S is not worth the cost.

Oh, I think none of us are saying that the 60kWh or 85kWh should go the way of the 40kWh model... but that a 120kWh model will certainly be added, and then hopefully a 180kWh model. At a premium price, for the people who are willing to pay for it.
Musk is not known for leaving potential revenue / margin on the table

 

[AMPd]

That's a very good point. A 900 mile range car might become a very realistic 900km range car on the Autobahn...
So I take it back, we do need that 2027 / 270kWh car...

270kWh battery pack would be awesome!

 

[dirkhh]

270kWh battery pack would be awesome!

Until you try charging it on a J1772

 

[Zythryn]

Oh, I think none of us are saying that the 60kWh or 85kWh should go the way of the 40kWh model... but that a 120kWh model will certainly be added, and then hopefully a 180kWh model. At a premium price, for the people who are willing to pay for it.
Musk is not known for leaving potential revenue / margin on the table

Sure he has and would do the exact same thing here.
40kWh pack was less than... 4% of orders wasn't it?

They scrapped it because it wasn't worth the cost of a third variant.

I don't think a 389 mile range Tesla would be more than 4% of orders, especially in 2017 when the supercharger network is completely developed and public charging infrastructure is much more mature than today.

 

[dirkhh]

Sure he has and would do the exact same thing here.
40kWh pack was less than... 4% of orders wasn't it?

They scrapped it because it wasn't worth the cost of a third variant.

I don't think a 389 mile range Tesla would be more than 4% of orders, especially in 2017 when the supercharger network is completely developed and public charging infrastructure is much more mature than today.

The problem was that 4% wasn't worth making a third battery for the lowest margin model.
On the other hand, making a third battery for a new highest margin model... that seems very attractive. And I doubt that it would be only 4%. There are a lot of people with significant financial means who love cars - you've been on TMC much longer than me, so you must have noticed all the posts from people comparing the Model S to their other cars (Ferraris, Aston Martins, Bentleys, etc...)

 

[Dave EV]

Simplistic extrapolation is indeed often dangerous.

Heh. :smile:

 

[lolachampcar]

Range beyond 85KW is used for travel only. The SCs will be fully up and running at 120KW by the end of 2015 effectively addressing the travel range issue.

I think you will see little to no increase in range until the price point is 1/2 what it is today (total car price point). If your stated goal is to accelerate EV adoption, you do not spend your development efforts in providing greater range to well healed buyers. Instead, you focus on providing the same range to the "middle class" whatever that really is. Actually, I think I just summarized Tesla's stated goals with G3.

 

[brianman]

I don't think a 389 mile range Tesla would be more than 4% of orders, especially in 2017 when the supercharger network is completely developed and public charging infrastructure is much more mature than today.

What are the betting odds on this one? I might take you up on that.

I'd easily have paid another 10k for a 100 kWh battery on my Signature vehicle in 2012.

- - - Updated - - -

Range beyond 85KW is used for travel only.

With a look-back to the 40/60s vs 60s, and 60s vs 85s ...

Isn't "only" a bit overstated here? More specifically, doesn't a larger capacity battery also buy you (a) degradation mitigation and (b) improved charging rate?

 

[dirkhh]

Range beyond 85KW is used for travel only. The SCs will be fully up and running at 120KW by the end of 2015 effectively addressing the travel range issue.

I think you will see little to no increase in range until the price point is 1/2 what it is today (total car price point). If your stated goal is to accelerate EV adoption, you do not spend your development efforts in providing greater range to well healed buyers. Instead, you focus on providing the same range to the "middle class" whatever that really is. Actually, I think I just summarized Tesla's stated goals with G3.

You are making a US centric argument.
What about Europe? Russia? China? Australia? Brazil? Etc.

 

[evme]

I know it's dangerous to simply extrapolate, but I read that an 8% annual improvement in range is hard work, but doable. So without any major breakthroughs in battery technology, this is what you might see. In 2030 the high end Model S will go 1000 miles before charging! Eventually the car will go further than people care to drive in a single day. The lower end models will still need the SuperCharger network, but the expensive models will be able to skip them entirely.

Look for the new improved Model S in 2017 with a 125 KWh battery.

Didn't Musk say next update will have 500 miles range? Also, improvements in range can be made outside the battery itself such as weight reduction, aero dynamics and efficiency.

It is one thing to look at battery kwh capacity. But there are other factors. For example, improvements to the battery insulation can make the battery more efficient. Improvements to the motor can do the same thing.

The energy density of the 85kwh battery cells is over 250watts/kg. But the entire battery is 156watts/kg. That means we have ~30% of the battery that can be shrunk without effecting energy density of the cells.

 

[dirkhh]

More specifically, doesn't a larger capacity battery also buy you (a) degradation mitigation and (b) improved charging rate?

BTW: (b) is the only thing that I didn't realize when buying my 60 and that would have possibly swayed me to buying an 85...

 

[Zythryn]

What are the betting odds on this one? I might take you up on that.

I'd easily have paid another 10k for a 100 kWh battery on my Signature vehicle in 2012.
...

All my free money goes into TSLA:wink:
I am sure some people would. I am guessing the number would be less than 4% of sales in 2017.
I am sure it would have been higher than 4% in 2012.

However, in 2017 you will have superchargers fully deployed. So while I don't doubt you would, I still don't believe more than 4% would in 2017.

 

[ckessel]

You are making a US centric argument.
What about Europe? Russia? China? Australia? Brazil? Etc.

How was it a US centric argument? I didn't see anything in his post that seemed specific to the US.