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Assuming 8% annual improvement in range...

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All my free money goes into TSLA:wink:
I am sure some people would. I am guessing the number would be less than 4% of sales in 2017.
I am sure it would have been higher than 4% in 2012.

However, in 2017 you will have superchargers fully deployed. So while I don't doubt you would, I still don't believe more than 4% would in 2017.
Perhaps you don't recall the "surprising" popularity of Perf that was mentioned at multiple Conf calls.

"Low demand" (4%) on the low end surprises no one. "Low demand" on the high end would be very surprising, to me at least.
 
How was it a US centric argument? I didn't see anything in his post that seemed specific to the US.
It's the "superchargers fully deployed" argument.
Tesla has somewhat credible plans to get some form of coverage for the US by 2015. There will still be lots of trips where you won't have access to a Supercharger. There are many discussions about how the "red circles" on the map are intentionally misleading when it comes to the actual driving people do. So I'd challenge the argument even for people in the US. But that is only the US. There is no plan (that I have seen) to cover Europe by 2015. Or 2017. And then let's talk about Russia, China, India, Australia, Brazil. Those are huge potential markets. And they will not have a Tesla owned and operated Supercharger network. Not soon, not in 2017, likely not ever.
So this argument
However, in 2017 you will have superchargers fully deployed.
seems very US centric to me. Or maybe "US and Western Europe centric".
 
seems very US centric to me. Or maybe "US and Western Europe centric".
Fair enough, though as you noted we really have no idea what the super charger plans are. Tesla blanketed Norway from day 1 and I hadn't realized that was going to be the case until it happened. Tesla may do similar things with other countries as they start opening up sales there.
 
Fair enough, though as you noted we really have no idea what the super charger plans are. Tesla blanketed Norway from day 1 and I hadn't realized that was going to be the case until it happened. Tesla may do similar things with other countries as they start opening up sales there.
I completely agree with you. I was impressed with what they did in Norway. But look at the size of Norway (a little more than 125k sq miles - slightly larger than New Mexico) and compare that to Russia (6.5M sqmls), China (3.7M sqmls ~= USA), India (1.3M sqmls), Australia (3M sqmls), Brazil (3.3M sqmls). So that's another 5x the size of the US. And think of regulatory challenges (that's what's slowing down Europe, I hear). Etc, etc.
 
There is no plan (that I have seen) to cover Europe by 2015. Or 2017. And then let's talk about Russia, China, India, Australia, Brazil. Those are huge potential markets. And they will not have a Tesla owned and operated Supercharger network. Not soon, not in 2017, likely not ever.
Point of clarification...
The "that I have seen" parenthetical is important here. Absence of public information does not imply absence of a plan. I haven't seen any evidence of plans for the Model X colors yet, but that doesn't mean Tesla has no such plan.
 
Point of clarification...
The "that I have seen" parenthetical is important here. Absence of public information does not imply absence of a plan. I haven't seen any evidence of plans for the Model X colors yet, but that doesn't mean Tesla has no such plan.
I concede. It is entirely possible that Tesla has plans to cover 6 times the land mass of the US (if we add all of Europe) by 2017 and that they have plans to build the more than 1000 Supercharger stations (that will cost them about a billion dollars, give or take, to put in place) that it will take to make all these areas accessible in an 85kWh car.
I still think that it's a more likely scenario that they will focus on some population centers in these markets (Superchargers between Moscow and St. Petersburg, Beijing and Shanghai and then down to Hong Kong, Sydney - Melbourne, Sao Paulo Brazila - Rio, etc) and add longer range cars to make the rest of those areas more accessible.
 
I concede. It is entirely possible that Tesla has plans to cover 6 times the land mass of the US (if we add all of Europe) by 2017 and that they have plans to build the more than 1000 Supercharger stations (that will cost them about a billion dollars, give or take, to put in place) that it will take to make all these areas accessible in an 85kWh car.
I still think that it's a more likely scenario that they will focus on some population centers in these markets (Superchargers between Moscow and St. Petersburg, Beijing and Shanghai and then down to Hong Kong, Sydney - Melbourne, Sao Paulo Brazila - Rio, etc) and add longer range cars to make the rest of those areas more accessible.

It depends on the country. In Russia and China you only really need to focus on the key areas. In these countries like Russia and China, most people who have money to afford new cars live in the center cities and rarely travel outside of them if ever.
 
I'd like to bring this back to a discussion that doesn't hinge on the question "how fast can Tesla build out the Supercharger network".
I think the key issue here is that there are lots and lots of different driving profiles.
- there are people who just drive locally. Easily done with a 60 or (if you are driving really a lot) with an 85.
- there are people who do "interstate travel" (think major highway between large centers) that could be covered by some form of Supercharger network.
- and then there are people who travel long distances between secondary and tertiary centers - or who drive around the country side. Friend of mine is an insurance claims supervisors. She drives 300+ miles most days from small town in the middle of nowhere to small town in the middle of nowhere. Another friend lives in The Dalles and loves to drive down Hwy 97 to Bend or all the way to Klamath Falls. I'm sure there are thousands of different but similar examples all over the US. And much more so all over Europe, Asia, South America, Australia.
The circles in the Supercharger map really just cover the second type above, but not the third. And I'd claim that there are at least as many people in group 3 (if not more) than in group 2 (but I'd guess group 1 really is the largest).

Anyway, my point is that even WITH a great Supercharger network there are still lots and lots of people who would pay good money for a 500 mile range car.
 
Perhaps you don't recall the "surprising" popularity of Perf that was mentioned at multiple Conf calls.

"Low demand" (4%) on the low end surprises no one. "Low demand" on the high end would be very surprising, to me at least.

It would not to me, but I certainly could be wrong.
The difference is that the current 'high end' is the performance plus model. People are actually accepting slightly less range to get the performance model.
My guess is that, unless the performance model requires the 500 mile battery pack, there will be little demand for it. Yes, there would be some, but I don't think a lot.

By 2017 I do expect the supercharger network to be filled out in all but China. True, this is another guess, but it is a logical inference seeing what Tesla has done, and plans to do.
 
I'd like to bring this back to a discussion that doesn't hinge on the question "how fast can Tesla build out the Supercharger network".
I think the key issue here is that there are lots and lots of different driving profiles.
- there are people who just drive locally. Easily done with a 60 or (if you are driving really a lot) with an 85.
- there are people who do "interstate travel" (think major highway between large centers) that could be covered by some form of Supercharger network.
- and then there are people who travel long distances between secondary and tertiary centers - or who drive around the country side. Friend of mine is an insurance claims supervisors. She drives 300+ miles most days from small town in the middle of nowhere to small town in the middle of nowhere. Another friend lives in The Dalles and loves to drive down Hwy 97 to Bend or all the way to Klamath Falls. I'm sure there are thousands of different but similar examples all over the US. And much more so all over Europe, Asia, South America, Australia.
The circles in the Supercharger map really just cover the second type above, but not the third. And I'd claim that there are at least as many people in group 3 (if not more) than in group 2 (but I'd guess group 1 really is the largest).

Anyway, my point is that even WITH a great Supercharger network there are still lots and lots of people who would pay good money for a 500 mile range car.


There are benefits to the 500 mile version even if you don't plan on using it. Charging depends on capacity. Right now superchargers charge at 1.3x capacity. On a 265 model S, you might be able to charge 200 miles in 30 minutes. But on a 500 mile car you can charge 200 miles in 15 minutes or 400 miles in 30 minutes.(assuming the superchargers are upgraded to meet that power output).

So even if your not the kind of person who will travel 500 miles in 1 sitting, the benefits are there.
 
It would not to me, but I certainly could be wrong.
The difference is that the current 'high end' is the performance plus model. People are actually accepting slightly less range to get the performance model.
While it seems a fair assumption that an S85 + 19" has slightly better range than a P85+ + 21" they are technically sold as having the same range and I don't think the 5% or so real world difference really are noticeable.
My guess is that, unless the performance model requires the 500 mile battery pack, there will be little demand for it. Yes, there would be some, but I don't think a lot.

By 2017 I do expect the supercharger network to be filled out in all but China. True, this is another guess, but it is a logical inference seeing what Tesla has done, and plans to do.
See my other comment. I don't think that there is such a thing as a "filled out" Supercharger network. There will always be a large number of people who need to drive places and routes that aren't reasonably covered with Superchargers.

- - - Updated - - -

There are benefits to the 500 mile version even if you don't plan on using it. Charging depends on capacity. Right now superchargers charge at 1.3x capacity. On a 265 model S, you might be able to charge 200 miles in 30 minutes. But on a 500 mile car you can charge 200 miles in 15 minutes or 400 miles in 30 minutes.(assuming the superchargers are upgraded to meet that power output).

So even if your not the kind of person who will travel 500 miles in 1 sitting, the benefits are there.
Totally agree. As I mentioned earlier in this thread - this is THE ONE THING that I didn't know about the 60 vs 85 before buying the 60 that would likely have swayed me to buy the 85 instead.
 
...

See my other comment. I don't think that there is such a thing as a "filled out" Supercharger network. There will always be a large number of people who need to drive places and routes that aren't reasonably covered with Superchargers.
....

I completely agree with the last sentence. The disagreement seems to be in a question of how many. My position is that it would be less than 4%. You seem to feel it would be more. Perhaps we will find out someday?
 
I completely agree with the last sentence. The disagreement seems to be in a question of how many. My position is that it would be less than 4%. You seem to feel it would be more. Perhaps we will find out someday?

Depends on where they live. Driving in OK, KS, NE, IA, SD, ND, etc. is always going to be a challenge as even when the map is fully populated. Superchargers are not going to be plentiful on many routes. In many cases you'll have to drive 30-50 miles off of your normal route to get to one, and in winter even an S85 is going to be stretched. I believe the 4% could possibly be correct if everyone was based in LA, SF, or NY. My prediction is that whatever the largest battery size is will always be the most popular. The only thing that would prevent the largest battery from being the most popular would be a plan to cover the state highways.
 
Range beyond 85KW is used for travel only. The SCs will be fully up and running at 120KW by the end of 2015 effectively addressing the travel range issue.

I think you will see little to no increase in range until the price point is 1/2 what it is today (total car price point). If your stated goal is to accelerate EV adoption, you do not spend your development efforts in providing greater range to well healed buyers. Instead, you focus on providing the same range to the "middle class" whatever that really is. Actually, I think I just summarized Tesla's stated goals with G3.

Depends on where they live. Driving in OK, KS, NE, IA, SD, ND, etc. is always going to be a challenge as even when the map is fully populated. Superchargers are not going to be plentiful on many routes. In many cases you'll have to drive 30-50 miles off of your normal route to get to one, and in winter even an S85 is going to be stretched. I believe the 4% could possibly be correct if everyone was based in LA, SF, or NY. My prediction is that whatever the largest battery size is will always be the most popular. The only thing that would prevent the largest battery from being the most popular would be a plan to cover the state highways.

Agree with jerry33. I was just writing this when I saw his post.
One point that is often missed is that lots of people travel significant distances off the interstate highway system where Supercharges are unlikely to be located. Or they are not happy with a 10+ mile detour to find a charger. TMC's will drive out of their way but many potential buys won't. A larger battery would make a significant difference and open up a new group of buyers for Tesla.
 
A larger battery would make a significant difference and open up a new group of buyers for Tesla.

A less expensive ( half the price of the Model S ) 265 mile range car will open up a LOT more buyers than a 530 mile range car at the Model S price point.

We're talking about 10-15 years from now. The supercharger network should keep growing after 2015.
Another 100 locations on top of those shown on the Tesla motors 2015 map, that serve state highways and not interstates will help sell all Tesla cars.
 
I represent the outlier datum for just about every point that has been brought up here.

1. Just to get to "town" is, for me, either a 400-mile round trip (Fairbanks) or 600 miles (Anchorage). But those are trips I normally take only every two months or so (and completely off-topi, this year haven't been to town since May 12. Gack).

2. I severely, vehemently, feverishly hope these days are behind me, but I am about as wacky a long-distance driver as one ever will find. My worst example is the time I drove the 3,060 miles to Salt Lake City (4900 km) in three days and one hour (and just two thermoses of coffee, too).

So, while a vehicle of such range would be really nice, even I could make use of it a few times a year. And the world would be better off if I were straitjacketed, instead.
 
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A less expensive ( half the price of the Model S ) 265 mile range car will open up a LOT more buyers than a 530 mile range car at the Model S price point.

We're talking about 10-15 years from now. The supercharger network should keep growing after 2015.
Another 100 locations on top of those shown on the Tesla motors 2015 map, that serve state highways and not interstates will help sell all Tesla cars.

One thus not deter the other. They will make a cheaper Gen III sedan and suv and than a model s and roadster refresh with 500 mile range. And we are not talking about 10-15 years from now. We are talking about 3-5 years from now. (3-4 years on gen 3 and 4-5 years on roadster and model s)

Both are important. And for different reasons.
 
I think the option of having additional range could be compared to a cell phone.

What if you had a cell phone with an 8 hour charge. Sure in most cases you can plug in somewhere as outlets are plentiful but do you really want to be tethered to that outlet while you wait for it to charge?

Now if you could upgrade to a 12 hour cell phone, wouldn't this already be so much easier? You could pick when and where to charge.

Now for most people only a 24 hour cell phone is enough (and luckily most are like that or better these days) but people might trade this additional convenience for a cheaper phone.

I believe it is the same with the car. In most cases a 60 (or even 40kwh) car is enough. If you want to go any kind of distance with it, the 60 would work but would require planning and wait time. The current 85 makes this a bit easier but a 500+ mile car would make most road trips a no-brainer, even if the superchargers are a bit out of the way because you can always just skip one.

I am in Phoenix and any visit to another large city (SD, LA, SF, LV) is at least 4-5 hours away. This combined with the need for AC will make longer road trips more like the 8 hour cell phone for some time.