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model 3 is Mr. Musk's game changer/affordable and mass production not solely for profit. M3 is for sustainable and make huge impact to reduce carbon footprint/emission. You have put everything into money & profit perspective. Seeing your chart will scare away both the reservation holders and future Tesla fans/buyers. They'll put the same generic label: Tesla is only for rich.
WileyTheMan
Peanut Gallery Member
My gut reaction is I concur with this statement. However the logical part of me says this car will be positioned to compete with the BMWs and MBZs in the entry-level luxury segment, and there are comparable packages that get costly too. I mean come on, were we really expecting a Ludicrous Model 3 to be under 50k? Perhaps its the pragmatic in me, but I am expecting vaulted prices for the highly optioned car because, well, this is a capitalistic society and they want to turn a good profit to secure their future and please the stockholders.
Of course, I'd love to be pleasantly surprised by pricing that doesn't exceed an entry-level Model S.
JSkrehot
Member
A maxed out Model S 90D (without rear facing seats or high amp charger) is $115,000, no way Model 3 will be more or reach even 100k, its base is 25k less. I did notice though that only the 100D offers the P, there is no box to check for P on the 60, 75, or 90. P100D is $155,000, just stupid money.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
You are suggesting here that although Tesla has stated publically that they are shooting for $100/kWh at the pack level they will try to hit 83% gross profit margin by charging $600 / kWh???
((15000-2500) / 15000) * 100 = 83%
For context right now with the model S they are charging $433.33 / kWh at under $190/kWh cost at the pack level.
((6500 - 2850) / 6500) * 100 = 56%
*Although Tesla pricing isn't consistent between 75D and 90D
((10000 - 2850) / 10000) * 100 = 71% but 90D is quicker and has a higher top speed.
Basically the table is not accounting for the savings the Gigafactory is promising and it's entire reason for being. If they aren't going to pass that on to the consumer then what's the point of it all...
I also strongly believe they will have a long distance Model 3 version.
If we assume for a second that they can fit 100kWh on a Model 3 then that's a delta of 50 kWh. Let's say they charged $400 / kWh and let's say gigafactory production only brings the cost down to $130 at first instead of the goal at $100/kWh.
They could therefore sell a 100kWh version at $20,000 + the base price ($35,000) so $55,000 and still have gross margins of:
(($20000 - ( $130/kWh * 50 kWh)) / $20000) * 100 = 67% for the battery alone.
The Model 3, in the original master plan, was billed as "even more affordable" which doesn't mean everyone can afford it. It just means it is less expensive than their previous models. The Model is still an entry level luxury vehicle comparable to same BMW and Audi models in the same market. Most people that put down a reservation know this and are ready for the option prices to be more than a Corolla or Civic.
While I agree with that for Tesla fans like myself and those in this forum I don't think this is true for all 400,000 reservations. I think they will lose a large chunk of reservations during the configuration process when people see how much the car they really want will cost especially as rebates dwindle.
I can't remember the exact number but Elon said he expected the average sale price of the 3 to be around 42k I believe, that price must include a few more moderately priced options. I can't see a price structure where a fully loaded model costs over 90k.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Yeah. I did the same a few days ago (can't seem to find the screenshot right now). I expect a fully loaded Tesla Model ☰ Performance Edition to be a significant discount below a maxed out BMW M3, AUDI S4, Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio, Jaguar XE S, Mercedes-AMG C63, or Cadillac ATS-V. Even moreso when you consider that we won't have to deal with paying 'what the market can bear' through a friendly neighborhood 'independent franchised dealership' markup beyond MSRP. Here is what I contributed in another thread on the subject:
My guesswork goes along these lines...
After the way the Press all over jumped on the Model X and for months never mentioned the actual base price of that car, just as they didn't mention the high end version of the BMW X5 and Porsche Cayenne cost more than the Founders series, I'm sure Elon Musk and Tesla Motors want very much to NOT fall into that trap again. So, the Press will be introduced to the 'barebones', bottom-of-the-line version of the Model ☰ that can be had for an actual $35,000 FIRST. Later, they'll be given a turn with the higher trim level cars. Because so-called 'journalists' will NOT report on something from Tesla unless it actually exists (though they have no problem speaking of vaporware from others). "No, we're not biased," they'll say, "We were only shown the top end car from Tesla, so we quoted ITS price. There were no other versions on hand when we demoed them..." But those same guys spent the whole past year gushing over the camera rear view mirror on the Chevrolet BOLT when that isn't standard on the car. Anyway, Tesla will fix that $#!+ right off.
As I said before, it is highly unlikely that the options list for Model ☰ will be particularly extensive when it comes to a la carte items and features. Tesla has to design the car for ease of manufacture, so a Porsche style 'Exclusive Series' list of customizable line items isn't going to happen. That would slow down overall Production too much, and the inventory control would be outrageous at the intended Capacity. The trim levels for the cars will likely be based upon battery pack capacity and drivetrain configuration. I expect that those who want a Performance rear wheel drive car are going to be disappointed. And it will probably be possible to add as much as $15,000 in options to each trim level. That should be enough to make sure the top-of-the-line, fully loaded version of Model ☰ ends up being a comparative bargain compared to its ICE based direct competitors.
So, a $35,000 base level car would be rear wheel drive and have the lowest offered battery pack capacity. If someone were to tick all the boxes on options, they might be able to get it to as much as $50,000 by adding $15,000 worth of stuff. I think the second trim level would probably be a dual motor all wheel drive configuration with a mid-level capacity battery pack. I expect it would have a price point of perhaps $42,000. So adding $15,000 in options would get you to around $57,000 for an extremely well equipped vehicle. Finally, there would be the Performance oriented version with a starting price of $50,000-to-$55,000 configured with dual motor all wheel drive and the highest capacity battery pack. Adding $15,000 in options would bring it to the $65,000-to-$70,000 range. Thus, a fully loaded Model ☰ would cost precisely twice as much as the base car, at most.
What are those individual options or options packages? How much do they cost? Heck, Idunno. Don't care really. Like I said, the car is going to be a BARGAIN compared to competitors no matter how it is adorned. Though, I'm pretty sure there will be some things that can be added to any car, and that at certain trim levels some things that would have been options on lower trims will become standard instead. I could likely live with the big wheels and tires for a Performance Model ☰ if they are mandatory, but I hope I don't have to get a leatherized interior, as I personally prefer cloth/textile seating.
After the way the Press all over jumped on the Model X and for months never mentioned the actual base price of that car, just as they didn't mention the high end version of the BMW X5 and Porsche Cayenne cost more than the Founders series, I'm sure Elon Musk and Tesla Motors want very much to NOT fall into that trap again. So, the Press will be introduced to the 'barebones', bottom-of-the-line version of the Model ☰ that can be had for an actual $35,000 FIRST. Later, they'll be given a turn with the higher trim level cars. Because so-called 'journalists' will NOT report on something from Tesla unless it actually exists (though they have no problem speaking of vaporware from others). "No, we're not biased," they'll say, "We were only shown the top end car from Tesla, so we quoted ITS price. There were no other versions on hand when we demoed them..." But those same guys spent the whole past year gushing over the camera rear view mirror on the Chevrolet BOLT when that isn't standard on the car. Anyway, Tesla will fix that $#!+ right off.
As I said before, it is highly unlikely that the options list for Model ☰ will be particularly extensive when it comes to a la carte items and features. Tesla has to design the car for ease of manufacture, so a Porsche style 'Exclusive Series' list of customizable line items isn't going to happen. That would slow down overall Production too much, and the inventory control would be outrageous at the intended Capacity. The trim levels for the cars will likely be based upon battery pack capacity and drivetrain configuration. I expect that those who want a Performance rear wheel drive car are going to be disappointed. And it will probably be possible to add as much as $15,000 in options to each trim level. That should be enough to make sure the top-of-the-line, fully loaded version of Model ☰ ends up being a comparative bargain compared to its ICE based direct competitors.
So, a $35,000 base level car would be rear wheel drive and have the lowest offered battery pack capacity. If someone were to tick all the boxes on options, they might be able to get it to as much as $50,000 by adding $15,000 worth of stuff. I think the second trim level would probably be a dual motor all wheel drive configuration with a mid-level capacity battery pack. I expect it would have a price point of perhaps $42,000. So adding $15,000 in options would get you to around $57,000 for an extremely well equipped vehicle. Finally, there would be the Performance oriented version with a starting price of $50,000-to-$55,000 configured with dual motor all wheel drive and the highest capacity battery pack. Adding $15,000 in options would bring it to the $65,000-to-$70,000 range. Thus, a fully loaded Model ☰ would cost precisely twice as much as the base car, at most.
What are those individual options or options packages? How much do they cost? Heck, Idunno. Don't care really. Like I said, the car is going to be a BARGAIN compared to competitors no matter how it is adorned. Though, I'm pretty sure there will be some things that can be added to any car, and that at certain trim levels some things that would have been options on lower trims will become standard instead. I could likely live with the big wheels and tires for a Performance Model ☰ if they are mandatory, but I hope I don't have to get a leatherized interior, as I personally prefer cloth/textile seating.
I agree with you that a fully loaded Model 3 won't exceed $90K, I'd be surprised if it went much over $70K. Regarding losing reservations based on options pricing, they might, but I'd seriously hope that anyone who puts $1K down for a car will do some research on it before they get to configure and have a pretty good idea of the overall costs. Especially, as you pointed out, Tesla already said they expect an average of $42K.
Even if they do lose a lot of reservations, I think they'll more than get them back after the second reveal and once production starts.
Ah hum... *cringing* Where's model 3L????
*I duck for cover too*
Maxed out fully loaded will not exceed 75k
Many of those options won't be options-they'll be standard.
ah, I see it now. no way it will be 85k base price-try 65k base price or there about.
did you take 20% off all price of mdl S? I don't think you did. Because it is being mass produced
it should be 25% off those prices.
*I duck for cover too*
Maxed out fully loaded will not exceed 75k
Many of those options won't be options-they'll be standard.
ah, I see it now. no way it will be 85k base price-try 65k base price or there about.
did you take 20% off all price of mdl S? I don't think you did. Because it is being mass produced
it should be 25% off those prices.
ummgood
Member
How can they do research? It is all a guessing game right now. No way can I research and see how much the car is going to cost before I put my $1k down. I waited in line because I want a quality electric car that doesn't look like a jelly bean and has good performance in my price range. If I can't get a dual motor, decent range, leather, sunroof, paint other than black or white, nice wheels, heated seats, premium sound for less than say $55k I'll be asking for my money back.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
- Statistical analysis of similar ICE cars and upcoming EVs.
- Industry average battery prices per kWh (we know Tesla wants to undercut this).
- We know roughly projected battery costs to Tesla (but not what they'll sell them for yet)
- We know the gross profit margins Tesla hopes to achieve with the Model 3 averaging a 25% gross margin.
- We know a max cost for dual motors vs single.
- We know current pricing on Model S options and we know Model 3 features will be "mass producible" generally meaning a lower cost so we could consider Model S option prices as max prices.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
The only way to get it that high is to add the after market accessories, extended warranty and stupid-expensive options that aren't going to be available on the Tesla. Who actually checks the box for $8k+ Ceramic brakes? If you load it up with every luxury option, tech option, styling option and performance option (sans the ceramic brakes) the price is below $85k.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Research is easy. Stop by websites for direct competitors and find out what features they offer and how much they charge for them. Use that as a measuring stick to determine how much you might allow yourself to spend to get what you want. I expect that overall, in a balance between fuel economy, standard features, creature comforts, technology & gadgets, or performance results, the Tesla Model ☰ will be an absolute bargain compared to the others. If you need help? Here, try these links*:
Acura TLX
Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio
AUDI A4
BMW 3-Series
Cadillac ATS
Infiniti Q50
Jaguar XE
Lexus IS
Mercedes-Benz C-Class
* Links are to US websites.
Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio
AUDI A4
BMW 3-Series
Cadillac ATS
Infiniti Q50
Jaguar XE
Lexus IS
Mercedes-Benz C-Class
* Links are to US websites.
That should be a good start! You can also check out the websites for Motor Trend or Car and Driver. They probably cover all these vehicles in depth between them.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Well, yeah... That's what 'fully loaded' means, man. Honestly, I'm surprised that the big, bad $64,000 BMW M3 that costs a full $30,000 more than the BMW 320i doesn't include the friggin' megagiganto ultrastupor cerebro-bionic brakes by default. What the [FLOCK] is that all about? Oh, yeah... COMMERCE. Then? You get to add 'what the market can bear' as a markup by the 'independent franchised dealership' just to show off how much you love the BMW badging and can get an EXCLUSIVE experience crafted just for you no matter the price! Ain't that grand? Anything to prove BMW is better than Acura, right? Somehow, I'd much rather see a BMW 3e with a 60 kWh battery pack and Supercharger access. It would probably cost less.
