Attempting to price out options for Model 3 (Part 2!)

[Akikiki]

I bought a couple of big ladder mounting hooks and threaded them in to the underside of a shelf on the back wall. Done. Just as practical is a Garden Hose Hangout doe roughly $10 on Amazon

 

[tonynibbles]

Heya,

I made another version of that spreadsheet, thought'd I share incase anyone is interested

Not sure if the excel version works but what the hey

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/5703596/Tesla Speculation.numbers
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/5703596/Tesla Speculation.xlsx

 

[S3XY]

You have the wrong currency symbol next to some of the USD totals.

 

[dsvick]

Delivery charges are not going to go down. All manufacturers charge and about the same. Fed enforce consistent pricing. A long time ago, we could drive to Detroit and pickup the car and save 200-300 hundred dollars. The states complained they were not getting a share of revenue so the Feds decided to have manufacturers charge the fee regardless of where you picked it up. And that was when the delivery charge was only a couple of hundred bucks. Don't ever expect to see the destination charges to go down - for any manufacturer.

The only part of the delivery/destination fee that the government has anything to do with is specifying that it be listed as a separate line item on the invoice. The manufacturers themselves decided to make the fee equal regardless of where the vehicle is being delivered to. The fees are similar for similar vehicles because they all pretty much use the same carriers.

 

[tonynibbles]

You have the wrong currency symbol next to some of the USD totals.

Oh yes, duh - Did this in a bit of a rush heading out the office, updated!

 

[Red Sage]

Delivery charges are not going to go down. All manufacturers charge and about the same. Fed enforce consistent pricing. A long time ago, we could drive to Detroit and pickup the car and save 200-300 hundred dollars. The states complained they were not getting a share of revenue so the Feds decided to have manufacturers charge the fee regardless of where you picked it up. And that was when the delivery charge was only a couple of hundred bucks. Don't ever expect to see the destination charges to go down - for any manufacturer.

Well, there was also the fact that 'independent franchised dealerships' were posting whatever 'delivery' fees they wanted to a vehicle purchase. Much the same way as they still do with so-called 'documentation' fees. The main purpose of the Bill that ultimately banned Tesla's operations in Michigan was to add a provision that said automobile manufacturers could not stop 'independent franchised dealerships' from setting whatever outrageous rate for documentation fees they wanted to get.

 

[FlatSix911]

Heya,

I made another version of that spreadsheet, thought'd I share incase anyone is interested

Not sure if the excel version works but what the hey

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/5703596/Tesla Speculation.numbers
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/5703596/Tesla Speculation.xlsx

Well done ... how long before this is reposted as a Tesla leak?

 

[Yggdrasill]

I've taken another look at my expected pricing/options/specs:

I've assumed 55.1 kWh available for the 55 kWh Model 3, and 73.75 kWh available for the 75 kWh pack. And then I redid my efficiency calculations and used a (hopefully) more accurate way of converting to EPA range. So, the ranges should be a bit more accurate.

 

[Red Sage]

I would suggest those 'Maxed Out' amounts would be the total including tax, title, license, and delivery fees in California.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I would suggest those 'Maxed Out' amounts would be the total including tax, title, license, and delivery fees in California.

There are places other than California. But I have added a "excluding taxes/delivery" to my sheet, so if I post a new version at some point, it will be there.

 

[Red Sage]

Just noting those totals seem more in line with what I expect to see as 'Out the Door' amounts than as merchandise pricing alone.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

I've taken another look at my expected pricing/options/specs:

View attachment 219837

I've assumed 55.1 kWh available for the 55 kWh Model 3, and 73.75 kWh available for the 75 kWh pack. And then I redid my efficiency calculations and used a (hopefully) more accurate way of converting to EPA range. So, the ranges should be a bit more accurate.

Continuing my recent love fest for Yggdrasill posts:

I think the above is very close to what we will actually see. Personally I expect range to be about 2% worse, ~50% probability of there being no option for a sun roof or air suspension, and ~50% probability of battery upgrade being 5k instead of 7k.

 

[JRP3]

Personally I expect range to be about 2% worse,

How do you interpret Elon's comment regarding the range of the 3 compared to the Bolt?

Oh so little faith

 

[Yggdrasill]

Elon's tweet doesn't necessarily apply to the base version. But I certainly don't rule out range being better than the Bolt on the base version.

Edit: Just to mention it, this is what Musk was responding to: "one more thing. Please tell me the Model 3 offers more range than the Chevy Bolt."

The Model 3 offers more range than the Bolt if *any* version of it offers more range than the Bolt.

 

[JRP3]

I agree it wasn't model specific but it's pretty much been a given from day one that the larger battery version of the 3 would easily outrange the Bolt, so I'm leaning towards interpreting it as referring to the base model, (which I admit could be wishful thinking.)

 

[LargeHamCollider]

How do you interpret Elon's comment regarding the range of the 3 compared to the Bolt?

It is tempting to interpret this as meaning that the base model will exceed the Bolt's EPA range, but I don't see it happening. I expect the base 3 to have less EPA range than bolt but I expect the base 3 to beat the Bolt by at least 20% where it counts, highway range.

If base M3 gets >238 EPA miles that implies (If our speculation re batteries is correct) that the top M3 will get >315 EPA miles, too close to the top S imo. I actually expect Tesla to sandbag the EPA rating a bit like they did with the p100d and likely the 100d. I think it's likely that the "sandbagging" keeps the top model just below the 300 mile mark.

I'd be happy to be wrong though, a 240 mile base model 3 would really be something... but I doubt that they'll able to achieve more than 1.2x the efficiency of the MS.

 

[geoffreak]

Continuing my recent love fest for Yggdrasill posts:

I think the above is very close to what we will actually see. Personally I expect range to be about 2% worse, ~50% probability of there being no option for a sun roof or air suspension, and ~50% probability of battery upgrade being 5k instead of 7k.

Assuming the battery sizes are 55kWh and 75kWh as expected, and knowing that Elon has publicly stated the Powerpack is being sold at $250/kWh at the highest sizes, I would assume that $5k would be the minimum cost Tesla would sell the upgrade for. $450/kWh or $9k would be the high end for what I see them charging on the Model 3. $350/kWh or $7k splits the difference and is a good estimate.

 

[Red Sage]

I think that Tesla will sandbag by rounding to the next lowest multiple of 5 for their reported EPA range. So, if they find the Model 3 75 capable of 318 miles of range, it will be listed at 315 instead. That is, by the way, more than the current BMW M3 at 300. It isn't necessary for the Model 3 to have a higher maximum range than the top version of Model S. What matters is that a Model 3 75 would have a greater range than a Model S 75. That would make the 'affordable' car that much more marketable, without having to feel you can't get 'enough' range.

 

[Akikiki]

All this speculation is just like worry. None of it is worth the paper its written on. Just sit back and wait. We'll find out in 4 months.

 

[JRP3]

I'd be happy to be wrong though, a 240 mile base model 3 would really be something... but I doubt that they'll able to achieve more than 1.2x the efficiency of the MS.

I'm thinking it would be relatively easy for Tesla to bump the size of the pack a bit to beat the Bolt. Maybe a 58kWh pack could do it, (60 actual 58 usable). There is no law that pack sizes must be multiples of 5. GM "cheated" a bit by using around a 64kWh pack and calling it a 60.