Attempting to price out options for Model 3 (Part 2!)

[farzyness]

Hi again,

I created a thread a while back (link here for those that are wondering) that attempts to price out options for Model 3. Quite a bit has happened since August (believe it or not) that has materially changed my perspective on how options will be priced come next year.

DISCLAIMER: I have no idea what I'm doing and this is a guesstimate based on my assumptions that will probably be wrong. This post is meant to start a conversation.

My assumptions:
- Options will primarily be used to raise the profitability of Model 3. Base Model 3 with 0 options will likely be at 0 profit or loss to Tesla.
- The Premium Package will come with Tesla's rumored upgrade HUD system, and will be used to truly "soup up" the interior of the car (alcantara, leather, HUD, bells and whistles, etc etc).
- I've applied the 20% rule (i.e. Model 3 will be about 20% smaller than Model S) to a couple options to reduce the price, given the assumption that less amount of materials will be used in comparison to the S. I've only applied this logic to some of the commonly understood high-uptake options (seats, wheels, paint, dual motors)

Discuss!

 

[Akikiki]

Why?

 

[S3XY]

Dual motor and largest battery more than doubles the base price excluding any options? No possible way.

 

[TexasEV]

A bit premature, don't you think? Someone really has too much time on their hands.

 

[flamingoezz]

I think its lack of any real m3 news...im itching too.

A bit premature, don't you think? Someone really has too much time on their hands.

 

[MrRandyB]

I personally do not think there will be three battery variants either

I am expecting 55 and 75

 

[MrRandyB]

Unfortunately, I am thinking the top end will be close to about $120K

 

[farzyness]

A bit premature, don't you think? Someone really has too much time on their hands.

God forbid I post something that's relevant to the Model 3 on a Model 3 forum, am I right?

 

[farzyness]

I personally do not think there will be three battery variants either

I am expecting 55 and 75

Interesting - if they can get the 55 cost down enough where it makes sense on the Model 3 that would be totally possible. Based on my rough calculations that would give it roughly 250 miles of battery, which would be quite a bit more than the base model S (with a 60 battery pack).

 

[tsla007]

if there are 2 then it would be 60 and 85 or 65 and 85. I do think there will be 3 battery sizes.
60-75-90
240m-300m-and the shocking 360m-according to estimates-these numbers are possible, but you might want to drop them 5% to stay on the safe side.

As for the chart-too many options. way to many. there will be 5 cars to chose from maybe 6.
The cars will be more standardized just like when you go buy a civic-4 basic models choose your color
e60/e75/e90
will you have get the D or L?
D will come with medium package-probably around 50k and l will come fully loaded for about 70k-many options will already come with
that car. They need to simplify the whole manufacturing to get 600k cars out the door in 1.5yrs-this includes the ordering.
does this car come with this or that? They don't need to do that. Just pick the base model price wise and choose your colors.
Low-35k
mid low 42k-probably a low with d and ap and some other cow bells
mid 50k mid battery size d model with same bells as mid low
mid high 60k max battery p model all bells
high 70k max battery l-all bells

Pick one and pick your colors. Pick your SC plan and roof-done. AP will be extra on low if you want that but all others should come with it.

It would make manufacturing so simple-fast-affective-error free.

Your full prices are way way too high.

 

[eSpiritIV]

I think the battery option, and Dual motor option will be exclusively separate than any creature comforts "premium package".

My friend at Tesla said he only wants the Dual motor and Autonomy in his car. SO i dont think that he will have to buy all the other stuff to get it. Im sure he knows something we dont. Who knows, he might already have configured it!

 

[BluestarE3]

I don't see an option for solar roof.

(Ducks for cover)

 

[eisbock]

Unfortunately, I am thinking the top end will be close to about $120K

You really think so? A fully loaded S is $158k. Base is $68k, so that's $90k in options to max the vehicle out. A $120k fully loaded estimate on a $35k vehicle is $85k in options, which is pretty damn similar to the S.

Your estimate implies that the 3 will 1) be offered with every single option the as the S, and 2) all options will cost nearly exactly the same. That doesn't seem right, especially when Elon has said some features will be cheaper (AWD).

 

[FirstSea]

Ah, car options the bane of my existence. The options' cost will determine my ability/willingness to buy the 3.

Sure at 35k,the 3 will be amazing, but at that price I could buy a fully loaded ICE or hybrid...

 

[timk225]

If paint is $1000 and wheels are $3000, they can build mine without paint or wheels. I'll get some 5 spoke Model S wheels on ebay and a dozen cans of white spray paint. Almost as good, and a whole lot CHEAPER!!!

OP, get rid of that 45 KW battery option in your chart. Smallest battery will be 55 or 60.

 

[kgclark]

I'll be shocked if the fully loaded Model 3 prices get as high as you guys are speculating. $112k? $120k? That seems way out of line. For the P-version, the closest ICE competition would probably be the BMW m3 sedan and that starts at $64k and tops out about $80k loaded. I'm expecting the loaded P Model 3 to come in a little higher than that at $85k or so. If it's higher than that, I probably won't be converting my order to a sale.

 

[jsrawa]

I'll be shocked if the fully loaded Model 3 prices get as high as you guys are speculating. $112k? $120k? That seems way out of line. For the P-version, the closest ICE competition would probably be the BMW m3 sedan and that starts at $64k and tops out about $80k loaded. I'm expecting the loaded P Model 3 to come in a little higher than that at $85k or so. If it's higher than that, I probably won't be converting my order to a sale.

I agree with everything you said. You wouldn't be alone not converting your order if the prices went that high because I wouldn't be either. I want a fully loaded vehicle but not at those prices. I think that misses the point of getting the car out there and truly competitive with comparable ICE vehicles.

 

[alseTrick]

$5K for the Premium Package? No way it's more expensive than S/X. A HUD shouldn't be an option. Either all cars should have the HUD or none should (and instead a binnacle should be installed). How are the people who don't get the Premium Package going to monitor their gauges, etc., if they don't have a binnacle or a HUD?

You should have two prices for the Glass/Sun roofs. Maybe something like $1K/$1.5K.

Hopefully there's no "free supercharging" option and everybody just has to pay as they go. It would easily be abused by those buying Teslas for ride sharing-type ventures.

Lastly, I wonder if the cost of Enhanced Autopilot would go down. With Tesla potentially going from well less than 100,000 vehicles/year to 100,000/quarter in the next 1-2 years, you'd think economies of scale could lower the price of the hardware somewhat. Not sure that same principle would work with the software aspect, though. But I guess what I actually see happening here is Enhanced Autopilot actually increasing in price 1-2 years from now as Tesla adds more features and as the EA improves itself. Just like the original Autopilot increased a few months back without any new hardware being installed.

 

[Flekoun]

I must agree that there is no way there will be 3 battery sizes. I think it is open secret that there will be only 2 sizes (small/big) with possible middle size that is SW limited "big" size. Also you have too many options. There will be few packages that combines a lot of options together. M3 MUST be super simple to build. I think that common people just do not understand how simple this process must be for Tesla to build these in such large quantities + timeframe they have. It have to rather looks like they are building only 1 car + give buyers "illusion" of having choice by mainly SW limiting features etc.

 

[Flekoun]

Also there is no way the fully loaded M3 would cost 120k$. Tesla knows psychology of buyers and they make M3 to be car for middle class.They do not want to piss buyers off by offering the same car for 35$ and 120k$, this would actually deter many potential buyers from buying the car.(which is the majority of target audience). Because who want to spent 35k$ for a car which you know is only a much worse version of 120$k version.Many people would feel terrible which such purchase and Tesla knows this. Fully loaded tesla would not break 75k$- 80k$ mark for sure.