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Really insightful article.
"Look at this nut, it has spawned a sapling with just 2 leaves. I mean, this will never grow into a tree! Not in a life's time!
"If Tesla wants to be perceived as a viable automaker, they say, it has to play by the same rules as all automakers.
I'm not so sure. After reading the article, I want to buy more TSLA - it seems as if all "industry sources" had only disbelief to offer. If you read the article, for every single aspect, they went through the following chain:
1) Getting Tesla from A to B was impossible.
2) They achieved it - they are at B now.
3) Now they want to go from B to C. That's impossible.
4) "Industry sources" say going from B to C will be very hard. Musk says it can be done, other experts don't quite believe it.
And there are so many items that they seemed to have missed: From the point of Tesla being to change transportation (i.e. one of the reasons to invest in Germany is exactly to stimulate some German competition), to using the car industry standard approach to retailing (did anybody ever see Tesla advertise on TV?), to other issues of scale-ability.
This part of the article made me laugh:
QUOTE: "In interviews with Automotive News, top automotive executives dispassionately analyzed Tesla's enormous strategic and tactical hurdles. Speaking on condition of anonymity, because they were commenting as individuals and not as representatives of their companies, the executives pieced together what Tesla would have to do to succeed.
These executives don't wish to see Tesla fail. They respect and admire what Musk has done. But each expressed concern that the auto-maker's ambitions may overreach its abilities."
---------
So speaking anonymously, they spread fear, doubt, and uncertainty about a company that they are terrified will succeed and blow away their existing business model and put them out of work.
I don't know where they got this nugget of information:
"People who buy a $35,000 car drive it differently than people who drive a $100,000 boutique car," said a veteran executive of Detroit and Japanese companies. "It will be a daily driver. That's an entirely different expectation."
I think the majority of Model S owners use their car as a daily driver and is not a "boutique-car" that just sits at home. Maybe for some of those in business that are constantly traveling and therefore not home, but that is probably the exception rather than the norm.
There were a few valid points from the "industry experts", but it does seem that they are overlooking the fact that Tesla is NOT the same as any other automotive start-up and has some very distinct advantages. Mainly, that Elon Musk is heading it up. Building cars and their operating infrastructure isn't rocket science, but Elon's other company is and he seems to have been able to figure that out. No wonder Elon has the moxie to state:
Musk doesn't see Tesla requiring any "eureka" moments.
"Destiny is in our own hands," Musk said. "If we don't succeed, it's our own fault."
We believe, Elon. We believe.
Yes, that is pecularly true since many wealthy Chinese are in the government. The government has shown the ability to make rapid change. How about free charging at party headquarters. LOL.........
The fact that not every Chinese can park and charge an electric car is described as a hurdle to enter China. But MS is designed for premium segment, that was a market 1m cars in 2012 in China. They will find a way to charge their new EV.
.......
Seriously...I have driven my wife's car exactly two times and very begrudgingly since I got my Model S 10,000 miles ago. And she drives my car more than hers now! If someone is not using it as their daily driver, I can't imagine why--either why they bought the car that obviously wasn't a fit, or why they don't love their car as much as they should. As my wife frequently says, "I never understood before when people talked about enjoying driving." My neighbor's kid is always looking for an excuse to ride in my car...that never happened before, and doesn't in most daily drivers...that's what makes this car so great is that it is an exotic, beautiful daily driver that's also cost-effective from a maintenance and "fuel" perspective, environmentally sound, roomy, etc. no compromises other than range, which is 80% addressed for me (Texas) by superchargers.Yes, I think they crossed this bridge in going from the Roadster to the Model S. It's a fair criticism to level against the Roadster, but against a 7 seat hatchback? Come on. I drive my car every day--and it replaced a station wagon.
I'm not so sure. After reading the article, I want to buy more TSLA - it seems as if all "industry sources" had only disbelief to offer. If you read the article, for every single aspect, they went through the following chain:
1) Getting Tesla from A to B was impossible.
2) They achieved it - they are at B now.
3) Now they want to go from B to C. That's impossible.
4) "Industry sources" say going from B to C will be very hard. Musk says it can be done, other experts don't quite believe it.
And there are so many items that they seemed to have missed: From the point of Tesla being to change transportation (i.e. one of the reasons to invest in Germany is exactly to stimulate some German competition), to using the car industry standard approach to retailing (did anybody ever see Tesla advertise on TV?), to other issues of scale-ability.
I'd say the article makes the "automotive experts" cited look rather foolish. History is full of statements that dispel the possibility of change.
Then there is cherry picking of numbers. They compare the hypothetical $3.5b investment to start a new car maker with the $795m cash in Tesla's bank account. This discards all the efforts Tesla has already spent and the objectives already fulfilled. I think it is very remarkable that Tesla has cash in the bank, no debt!
The fact that not every Chinese can park and charge an electric car is described as a hurdle to enter China. But MS is designed for premium segment, that was a market 1m cars in 2012 in China. They will find a way to charge their new EV.
IMHO this article illustrates the limited capability of experts to think outside their box.
"If Tesla wants to be perceived as a viable automaker, they say, it has to play by the same rules as all automakers."
And there you have it. Apparently the established automakers are doing everything in the best possible way with no room for improvement. Tesla should clearly just do things the way they did, or just pack up and go home.
I don't know anything about standard accounting practices, but I don't think anyone is arguing that Tesla isn't making money on the model S, they have money in the bank, they've repaid their loans ahead of schedule. They may be investing in further infrastructure at a rate that exceeds the money they bring in through sales, but that isn't any deviation from what they have been saying they would do all along.
There are challenges of course, but doing what Detroit did isn't always a good plan.
Seriously...I have driven my wife's car exactly two times and very begrudgingly since I got my Model S 10,000 miles ago. And she drives my car more than hers now! If someone is not using it as their daily driver, I can't imagine why--either why they bought the car that obviously wasn't a fit, or why they don't love their car as much as they should. As my wife frequently says, "I never understood before when people talked about enjoying driving." My neighbor's kid is always looking for an excuse to ride in my car...that never happened before, and doesn't in most daily drivers...that's what makes this car so great is that it is an exotic, beautiful daily driver that's also cost-effective from a maintenance and "fuel" perspective, environmentally sound, roomy, etc. no compromises other than range, which is 80% addressed for me (Texas) by superchargers.
On the topic of cash and comparing back to the traditional auto industry, people aren't making nearly enough of Tesla's cash conversion cycle. Tesla purchases raw materials and receives income from the sale of a finished car at approximately the same time. Whether it's really -1 month or +2 months, it's a ridiculously fast cash conversion cycle relative to the rest of the automotive industry. Unlike the rest of the industry, the growth of the company funds the growth - there is no gargantuan and growing inventory to finance in order to support the growth.
Other companies have made a business model around optimizing their industries cash conversion cycle, and doing nothing else particularly well
The continued and persistent disbelief by the legacy ICE automobile industry that Tesla is a viable competitor. GM set up a commission to study Tesla and others have made similar noises but this tells us they will be unprepared for Tesla's onslaught. Bad as a fan of EVs but good as a Tesla investor.
I don't disagree with you, but I wonder how long that can be maintained--and I don't think the answer is "forever."
....
Tesla has so far managed to avoid having to do that, but I am not convinced that they can sell 250,000 cars a year and maintain the kind of cash conversion cycle that they have now.