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Audi e-tron Sportback

Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by AnxietyRanger, Apr 18, 2017.

  1. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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  2. T34ME

    T34ME Member

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    Sounds like the perfect car to fit your criteria. I'd hold off if I were you.
     
  3. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    Hard to judge by concepts. They are always so wild. Even Model X was plagued by that... took awhile to get used to the production one after Tesla's concepts...

    What I like about the I-Pace is that it looks fairly production by now. We shall see.
     
  4. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    I hope Model Y is not a "sport back."

    I am hoping for a traditional C Pillar even at the cost of increased aerodynamic drag.

    Cheaper more energy dense battery cells should give good enough range on the base Model Y with increased rear seat headroom and storage area.
     
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  5. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    I'm agnostic on the sportback issue. Either can work for me.

    I doubt I'd buy a second falcon wing car though.
     
  6. mspohr

    mspohr Active Member

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    Other than the ugly front end, rear end and interior, I like the concept.
    We'll see what it looks like when it finally goes into production in two years. (Why are all of these "Tesla Killers" always two or three or five years from production?)
     
  7. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    Once again, Audi / VW proving their unquestioned leadership in EV Concept Car Press Releases
     
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  8. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    I think that song is coming to an end though, no matter how warranted it has been. The VW and Audi concepts seen today are real precursors of a committed German giant.

    They show real volume-car platforms maturing, just like so many ICEs before them have been shown in concept form 1-2 years prior to launch. It is quite different from the days of old.

    These are not one-offs made for show. They are group-wide platforms being developed. Once done, they will likely quickly translate into several production cars from multiple VW brands.
     
  9. T34ME

    T34ME Member

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    Concept cars are one thing, supporting them with a viable Supercharger network is quite another.
     
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  10. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    You want to make a bet that neither of these cars will be in volume (>100,000) production by the end of Q1 2019?

    What I do expect to see is a smattering of Golf and A3 BEVs
     
  11. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    Ditto on that. If it's going to be an SUV they should go with the traditional body. I'm of the opinion the sport back ones look uglier (cars like the X6, Crosstour etc).
     
  12. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    Maybe, but it won't be this car. This one is obviously another one of those unrealistic concepts. They will eventually release a more realistic one that can hit production, but not there yet.
     
  13. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    "Concept" vehicles from the traditional manufacturers are indeed a "tease" because the production cars are very different, always toned down. So "only" two years away I see, and "on the heels" of a car that isn't even in production yet. As usual, Audi remains years away from offering a competitive vehicle to Tesla, while Tesla continues to improve its existing models and introduce new models. If only Audi would get its act together and actually offer a long range BEV for sale instead of issuing more press releases and showing more "concepts".
     
  14. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    Obviously. That's why it is called Model X Prototype... sorry, an Audi concept car. ;)

    I know my history, don't you worry. Concept cars have unrealistic trimmings. But the value of this is the platform underneath. That is the real VW group commitment worth noting here.
     
  15. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    #15 AnxietyRanger, Apr 18, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2017
    Let's put this all the historical perspective, the Audi e-tron quattro (2018) and Audi e-tron Sportback (2019) might be compared to how the concept evolution has happened from other Audi SUVs and crossovers.

    First, here's the Audi e-tron quattro for comparison:

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Audi Q7, concept 2002 - Audi Pikes Peak quattro:

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Audi Q7, production 2003:

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Audi Q5, concept 2007 - Audi Cross Cabriolet quattro concept:

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Audi Q5, production 2008:

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Audi Q3, concept 2012 - Audi Q3 Vail:

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Audi Q3, production 2013:

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Sometimes they are crazy wild, like the Q5 pre-cursor we saw in cabriolet form with a concept interior - oither times they are rarther close. I would say the e-tron concepts we have seen are wilder than most of these - obviously they will loose a lot of the bling going into production - but they do seem to have consistent, producable elements such as the three to four screen interface (instrument cluster, media, AC area, possible HUD) - this might be a pre-cursor to the next generation MMI system.

    It seems also likely that the "nosecone" will be Audi's solution to maintain a brand identity up front. Perhaps the Audi e-tron Sportback showing a slightly more realistic take on this than the e-tron quattro concept.
     
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  16. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    #16 AnxietyRanger, Apr 18, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2017
    Let's put your sales expectations into perspective. 100,000 production by Q1/2019 you say? I guess you mean annual production?

    Audi e-tron Sportback will not be out until sometime in 2019, so it will definitely not be shipping much anything in or by Q1/2019. So it would be up to Audi e-tron quattro, a fairly large premium SUV to sell that during a partial year, since it is expected to launch sometime in 2018. It will not have reached its full production by Q1/2019 I think, so it would have to acccomplish that through a partial year.

    Global sales of current cars might give us some indication. Audi sells 1,8 million vehicles a year - up almost a million from decade ago, so impressive figures. Out of those Audi Q7, the closest current car to Audi e-tron quattro, sold 102,200 units in 2016, doubling its sales from the previous year - a rare feat related to a new model.

    The next closest competitor to the Audi e-tron quattro, Tesla Model X, sold 25,000 units in 2016. So no, I don't think taking that bet would be wise, nor would is it a usable indicator of pretty much anything.

    But I will say this, if Audi e-tron quattro concept's production version is not in real, volume production by Q1/2019, I will have been wrong and I will freely admit it. Real, volume production for a car such as this means it is actually orderable, at relatively normal delivery times (3-6 months, assuming normal demand), at a normal price-point relative to Audi's normal range, in many of Audis markets. I would accept this happening in Germany and several European markets as being in volume production. The same, if it appears in the U.S., but I would not consider that a requirement - many of Audi's cars only appear in Europe and U.S. ramping up year(s) later is normal.

    I would not consider Audi R8 e-tron type of sales of under 100 cars at 1 million a pop as being in volume production. Volume production means actual production lines pumping out these cars to regular customers in regular markets.

    They will not be coming out of the same platform as being shown here, though. The platform thinking and progress of a company such as VW are the real news here. What they whip up over that platform to wet appetites is irrelevant, the platform underneath - the text in the press-releases, not the pictures, so to speak - is the real progress here.

    Yes, we will see more e-Golfs and A3 e-trons also (from other platforms), but for the Tesla type of large-battery vehicle, I believe higher-end Audis such as discussed here will VW groups first serious entries. Maybe they will surprise with a Bolt competitor, who knows, but I am not counting on it personally. Model X and Model Y competition is where it will be at first, I estimate.
     
  17. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    #17 AnxietyRanger, Apr 18, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2017
    Well, the CCS network is expanding, but I still remain of the opinion that initially this is rather irrelevant at this stage of EV adoption.

    Everyone on TMC knows what the greatest benefit of owning an EV is: home/work charging. We know this because that is what we tell those who are worried that EV charging takes so long compared to filling up a tank (which it does). When you have a large battery and unless you are a road warrior at work, that home/work charging setup will take care of most of the charging needs of a large portion of the initial EV market, which is upscale and more likely has home/work charging possibilities.

    Many people bought Teslas before there were Superchargers or Superchargers nearby them. Tesla Roadster is still a respected car that many people use. When I got my Model S, there was not a single Supercharger within its range. It didn't matter, because that's not the greatest strength of a large-battery EV, the ability to drive around for days and only need a night or a work day of charging on occasion is what's it's all about most of the time. Having a large battery is very important every day, having Supercharging is not very important every day, unless perhaps you are in California.

    Is the Supercharger network a benefit and a great achievement by Tesla? Of course it is. But by 2018-2019, when the e-trons and I-Paces come, the third-party charging networks have expanded too. But again, none of that matters much, because the initial market will be mostly people who can charge at home/work anyway, since roadside charging - even at a Supercharger - is not a great benefit for EVs, it is workable but slow even at the best of times. Normal people will hate waiting for 30-60 minutes to charge, that's not why they buy EVs. Road warriors will prefer ICEs still anyway and many will have them as secondary family cars...

    But for the guy/gal who can charge at home/work on a couple of days of the week, a large-battery EV offers immense convenience and benefits for everyday driving. And that will be as true for the Audi e-tron quattro and Tesla Roadster, as it will be for the Model S and the Model X.

    So, in summary, I do not expect the e-trons and I-Paces to be demand limited due to no Supercharger network. We shall see if I'm wrong on that, of course. The long-range charging question will have to be eventually sorted out (not even Superchargers are there yet in most of the world), but it is not a show-stopper at this stage.
     
  18. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    I agree the lack of a fast charging network should be a minimal hit to demand. BUT, that's only if the cars support faster charging.

    People will most likely be willing to wait for the charging networks to get better, but if they buy a car with only 50 kW charging (like the Ampera-e), that is not something that will improve.

    When the Model S was rolled out, it had the benefit of being compatible with 90 kW charging (later 120 kW), even if there weren't any superchargers around.

    We will see what Volkswagen/Audi brings to market - I'm moderately hopeful they will have compelling BEVs.
     
  19. secondstage

    secondstage Member

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    Yeah, that was a half year ago. Ultra-E will start with construction in July. You can't build a complete charging network in less then two years.
    I am sure, the Ultra-E network will exist in 2018, but it will never compete with Teslas Supercharger network, and the price will be much higher...
     

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