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It's not political...so I'll say something radical. . .

We all borrow to do something or other, at some time, or other. . . even you Bill Gates, so sit down and shut up. You too, Buffet, or you're in the naughty corner, again.

The government of this country (that's Australia - just wanted to be sure you're paying attention), needs to ACT on climate change and that will mean putting the country into serious debt, because the time frame is very, very, very short.

Borrow now, because you only have money to pay back later. Money, "the economy" all "man made" (sexist pig that I am) artifacts.

Otherwise, the cost will be far higher and may not be paid back at all. It's only money...

Murray-Darling - DEAD, DEAD, DEAD...

Barrier Reef - Last Chance to see...

How do you apologise for that?

Borrow now, so our great grand children don't pay later. (Pssstt...already too late for our children and grand children, in case you were wondering)
 
It's not political...so I'll say something radical. . .

We all borrow to do something or other, at some time, or other. . . even you Bill Gates, so sit down and shut up. You too, Buffet, or you're in the naughty corner, again.

The government of this country (that's Australia - just wanted to be sure you're paying attention), needs to ACT on climate change and that will mean putting the country into serious debt, because the time frame is very, very, very short.

Borrow now, because you only have money to pay back later. Money, "the economy" all "man made" (sexist pig that I am) artifacts.

Otherwise, the cost will be far higher and may not be paid back at all. It's only money...

Murray-Darling - DEAD, DEAD, DEAD...

Barrier Reef - Last Chance to see...

How do you apologise for that?

Borrow now, so our great grand children don't pay later. (Pssstt...already too late for our children and grand children, in case you were wondering)

I 100% agree.
 
It's not political...so I'll say something radical. . .

We all borrow to do something or other, at some time, or other. . . even you Bill Gates, so sit down and shut up. You too, Buffet, or you're in the naughty corner, again.

The government of this country (that's Australia - just wanted to be sure you're paying attention), needs to ACT on climate change and that will mean putting the country into serious debt, because the time frame is very, very, very short.

Borrow now, because you only have money to pay back later. Money, "the economy" all "man made" (sexist pig that I am) artifacts.

Otherwise, the cost will be far higher and may not be paid back at all. It's only money...

Murray-Darling - DEAD, DEAD, DEAD...

Barrier Reef - Last Chance to see...

How do you apologise for that?

Borrow now, so our great grand children don't pay later. (Pssstt...already too late for our children and grand children, in case you were wondering)
You genuinely think it will make a difference? Earth has gone though numerous cold/hot cycles with no claimed human input. Huge mass extinctions in the geological past. The only real difference now is that a single species (although I sometimes wonder about the “single” part of that) has overrun its reasonable population density, and probably should be up for Darwinian correction. Matter can not be created or destroyed. Whatever co2 is around now was around in the past.
Things are likely to get worse then equilibrium will be restored and a new normal will continue until the the next cycle. Thus it has been throughout the multi billion year history of the planet.
No amount of borrowing or falsely induced hardship is going to make a jot of difference other than to make some people feel good that “well at least we did something, we tried”.
 
I agree that if we don't get our act together Darwinian correction will set in with a vengeance. Like I said, several generations (minimum) will suffer from the effect of climate change/global warming that has already occurred.

However, "Matter can not be created or destroyed. Whatever co2 is around now was around in the past." ... is a clear misunderstanding. Makes me want to seek out your Year 10 science teacher and beat them to death with a toothpick.

The first part about matter/mass conservation is essentially correct, but incomplete. Matter is conserved in chemical and physical changes (which is just fine here, since these are chemical reactions we're talking about). However, it certainly changes form (in chemical reactions). Therefore, "Whatever CO2 is around now was around in the past" is simply wrong and a complete misunderstanding of the Principle.

For example, petrol is mostly Octane molecules.

C3H8 + 5 O2 = 3 CO2 + 4 H2O (lacking subscript this is odd looking)

So, one molecule of octane (petrol) burns in 5 molecules of oxygen to produce 3 molecules of carbon dioxide and 4 molecules of water. Clearly, no matter/mass is created or destroyed. The number of carbon atoms, oxygen atom and hydrogen atoms on each side of the equation (reactants -> products) is the same. Atoms are not altered in chemical reactions.

BUT, as you can also clearly see, the system now has 3 molecules of CO2 floating around that did not exist before this reaction occurred.

Hence, the second part of your remark, as I said above, is simply wrong. Human produced combustion products during industrial times (last 300 years) have vastly increased the level of CO2 in the atmosphere. This is measurable, of course and there is even a fossil record of CO2 levels in coral and ice that dates back thousands of years, so we have a base datum for this measurement.

CO2 and CH4 (to name 2 molecules) are able to absorb and re-emit photons of IR. Long story short, they have interatomic bond lengths that enable this process which other molecules (e.g. O2 and N2) do not have. It is an irony that the Earth would be a frozen ball of ice without this effect(!) It is human activity (burning fuel mainly) that's caused the so-called "greenhouse effect".

As to "equilibrium being restored"? Your premise for this is wrong, so the outcome is also wrong.

However, even if it were to be taken as true in one form or another, the human race will be long gone before the planet rids itself of the excess CO2. The oceans need only warm by a degree or so to kill a lot of marine life on which we depend, one way or another, directly or indirectly. The atmosphere will heat up so much that life will be unlivable on the surface. Just examine the weather records for the past ten years...or even the past ten months! I say "records" somewhat advisedly, since there is record after record being broken in "the heat wave". That may be "the new normal" you speak of and that's with 0.3 to 0.8 degrees of base line surface temperature change. Fractions of a degree in this datum produce swings of 5 degrees or more in various parts of the atmosphere.

Back to the original story - an immense amount of energy culture shift is required. It is required now and we will all have to pay for it. If we do not "borrow money" (in essence) right now and future generations "pay it back" then the environment as we know it is well and truly dead and the human race with it. The "hardship" induced by this will be nothing compared to the hardship effected by climate change allowed to continue unabated.

If we do not act now, then "no amount of borrowing" will make a difference. I recommend Lord Nicholas Stern's writing on the economics of Climate Change for a starter. He warned over 15 years ago that the cost of doing nothing would be far greater than the cost of changing "now" (i.e. 15 years ago). Things have become worse since then and successive world governments continue to fiddle while .... yada yada...

Finally, the word "belief" does not belong anywhere near a discussion of climate change. It is a measurable, independently verifiable fact.
 
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Whatever _carbon_ (not CO2) that is around today, was around in the past. The problem is that we are putting more of this carbon into the atmosphere as CO2, and removing more of the living means by which it can be removed. These effects are aided by vicious cycles (feedback loops) which over-cautious climate scientists have not taken into account in their models until recently.

As garyjac put it eloquently: world economies, do something soon, or it will cost a lot more. Simple economics. But given the ideological resistance to change, we have probably lost this battle. We may be able to limit the damage somewhat. Will we learn to believe science and scientists? The cynic in me doubts it, but there is always hope.
 
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Yeah, except for the fact that the equation I wrote in that post was burning Propane, not Octane :rolleyes: Fortunately, they are both hydrocarbons and propane is a little less polluting (only 3 carbons to burn, instead of 8). Which is why gas-fired power is considered "clean".

Petrol (mostly octane) burning in air (the oxygen component):

2 C8H18 + 25 O2 = 16 CO2 + 18 H2O

So, more than 5 times as much Carbon Dioxide as Propane.
 
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Yeah, except for the fact that the equation I wrote in that post was burning Propane, not Octane :rolleyes: Fortunately, they are both hydrocarbons and propane is a little less polluting (only 3 carbons to burn, instead of 8). Which is why gas-fired power is considered "clean".

Petrol (mostly octane) burning in air (the oxygen component):

2 C8H18 + 25 O2 = 16 CO2 + 18 H2O

So, more than 5 times as much Carbon Dioxide as Propane.

This is a great science lesson.....can you work out how much propane or octane my solar panels let off when charging my tesla?
 
Yeah, except for the fact that the equation I wrote in that post was burning Propane, not Octane :rolleyes: Fortunately, they are both hydrocarbons and propane is a little less polluting (only 3 carbons to burn, instead of 8). Which is why gas-fired power is considered "clean".

Petrol (mostly octane) burning in air (the oxygen component):

2 C8H18 + 25 O2 = 16 CO2 + 18 H2O

So, more than 5 times as much Carbon Dioxide as Propane.
True, but a lot more energy, garyjac, almost exactly proportional to the increased release of CO2! (almost!)
Not saying it's ok, just continuing the basic sciences...
 
This is a great science lesson.....can you work out how much propane or octane my solar panels let off when charging my tesla?
Your solar panels and mine do come with a carbon cost, that's true. 42 grams of CO2 equivalent per kW-hr generated over the life of the panel compared with 820 per kW-hr for coal fired power. Concentrated solar and wind power are cleaner again. So, your Tesla uses (say) 40 kW-hr for a part overnight charge, for example, then you accounted for 42 x 40 = 1680 grams equivalent of CO2 compared to coal-fired electricity 820 x 40 = 32, 800 grams equivalent CO2. 20 times less CO2 in other words, by using solar panels.

So, not a "silly" a question as it would appear initially. Solar Panels have no "overt" emissions but until 2010 they were not the cleanest thing in the world because of the carbon overhead.
 
Tinkering is a waste of time, especially when its targetting those with moderate wealth. They generally have the ability to pay for a workaround, often to greater personal benefit. The negative gearing removal is a case in point. Rents will skyrocket because investors will depart the market. Renters will suffer enormously. The investors wont suffer, they will simply take their cash and equity to a different investment class auch as commercial property, where they can make a really decent return and pay no tax.
Actually as property prices fall, rents also fall because a larger subset of renters are now able to buy the cheaper properties, leaving fewer renters fighting over the rental properties. It's happening right now in Sydney.
I've always felt it is a problem to encourage property trading as an investment strategy, because property is different to other investment vehicles (stocks etc) in that property also has a practical use (as a home).
Trading in property has caused prices to rise, but this also affects the normal life-cycle of the citizenry, who find themselves unable to afford a house next to their parents. That's not quite the same as being unable to buy shares in AAPL.
My neighbours are a family with 4 children, in an ordinary house which happens to be worth a ridiculous $2.5M due to rampant property speculation. The parents are an electrician and a housewife. The oldest boy (19yo) works at the service station down the road for minimum wage and does landscaping on airtasker. He is enthusiastic, sincere and full of youthful hope, but he will never ever afford a house next to his electrician dad.
The house on the other side is owned by a Chinese investor who lives in Shanghai. It's single brick with a weatherboard lean-to. Worth $2.2M. At the median Sydney income of $80,000 ($62,000 after tax) that is 35 years of the entire take-home salary. So if the 19yo earns the median income, and somehow manages to freeze the house price at 2.2M, he will have saved the 2.2M when he is 54yo. That's assuming he lives with his parents until then, and saves 100% of his take-home pay.
Trade shares not houses!
 
True, but a lot more energy, garyjac, almost exactly proportional to the increased release of CO2! (almost!)
Not saying it's ok, just continuing the basic sciences...
Of course, the energy density of alkanes is pretty linear between 3 and 8-9 carbon atoms (nonane), so that follows. After 9 carbons the energy density flattens out. However, it's the waste that is the issue, not the energy value.
 
Gary, where exactly do you want the borrowed money spent, and to do what? I can see that having a few billion fast growing trees to bind co2 would work. Unless every human on the planet does this nothing this country does in isolation will make a jot of difference at the cost of pushing us into such a deep recession that life won’t be worth living anyway. So what, we slaughter the ruminant herds all over the world because they produce vast quantities of greenhouse gasses? We all become vegetarians with the health risks that entails. We all ride bikes? Except those who medically can’t . We install renewable energy that is relatively unreliable (and which comes at a pollutant cost albeit small as you point out) in a society which has become totally dependent on electricity. Battery powered vehicles produced at co2 cost?
I suppose we COULD all go back to Stone Age, but frankly, I would rather be dead.
As to the source of funds, if everyone is borrowing to do whatever it is you want done, who is doing the lending and how do you propose they be paid back? How is the lender managing to do their share of this life and soul destroying process?
Committing national suicide when most others are not doing the same does not seem too smart to me. It is not a pleasant sight at the bottom of the lemming cliff!!
I see a Darwinian correction coming. I don’t pretend to have any answers. Everyone seems to think coal fired power is a bad thing. Ok let’s accept that. What is your alternative? How quickly can it be implemented and at what cost? How many years of environmental assessments, committee meets, and all other planning garbage that hinders development in this country will your alternative take?
Not sure how international trade is going to happen, no oil fired ships or aircraft.
As I said, how are we going to pay all the borrowings back?
 
Actually as property prices fall, rents also fall because a larger subset of renters are now able to buy the cheaper properties, leaving fewer renters fighting over the rental properties. It's happening right now in Sydney.
I've always felt it is a problem to encourage property trading as an investment strategy, because property is different to other investment vehicles (stocks etc) in that property also has a practical use (as a home).
Trading in property has caused prices to rise, but this also affects the normal life-cycle of the citizenry, who find themselves unable to afford a house next to their parents. That's not quite the same as being unable to buy shares in AAPL.
My neighbours are a family with 4 children, in an ordinary house which happens to be worth a ridiculous $2.5M due to rampant property speculation. The parents are an electrician and a housewife. The oldest boy (19yo) works at the service station down the road for minimum wage and does landscaping on airtasker. He is enthusiastic, sincere and full of youthful hope, but he will never ever afford a house next to his electrician dad.
The house on the other side is owned by a Chinese investor who lives in Shanghai. It's single brick with a weatherboard lean-to. Worth $2.2M. At the median Sydney income of $80,000 ($62,000 after tax) that is 35 years of the entire take-home salary. So if the 19yo earns the median income, and somehow manages to freeze the house price at 2.2M, he will have saved the 2.2M when he is 54yo. That's assuming he lives with his parents until then, and saves 100% of his take-home pay.
Trade shares not houses!
Encouraging renters to stretch to buy in a market with record low interest rates is never going to end well.
The next stage of this manipulation is banks taking possession and selling for a discount after rates rise late 2020. Can you work out what happens after rates increase 0.75% with the resultant 20% increase in repayments required?
 
Gary, where exactly do you want the borrowed money spent, and to do what? I can see that having a few billion fast growing trees to bind co2 would work. Unless every human on the planet does this nothing this country does in isolation will make a jot of difference at the cost of pushing us into such a deep recession that life won’t be worth living anyway. So what, we slaughter the ruminant herds all over the world because they produce vast quantities of greenhouse gasses? We all become vegetarians with the health risks that entails. We all ride bikes? Except those who medically can’t . We install renewable energy that is relatively unreliable (and which comes at a pollutant cost albeit small as you point out) in a society which has become totally dependent on electricity. Battery powered vehicles produced at co2 cost?
I suppose we COULD all go back to Stone Age, but frankly, I would rather be dead.
As to the source of funds, if everyone is borrowing to do whatever it is you want done, who is doing the lending and how do you propose they be paid back? How is the lender managing to do their share of this life and soul destroying process?
Committing national suicide when most others are not doing the same does not seem too smart to me. It is not a pleasant sight at the bottom of the lemming cliff!!
I see a Darwinian correction coming. I don’t pretend to have any answers. Everyone seems to think coal fired power is a bad thing. Ok let’s accept that. What is your alternative? How quickly can it be implemented and at what cost? How many years of environmental assessments, committee meets, and all other planning garbage that hinders development in this country will your alternative take?
Not sure how international trade is going to happen, no oil fired ships or aircraft.
As I said, how are we going to pay all the borrowings back?

Let me say, that in spite of lobbying for years already that there is very little movement from any government on this subject. The back sliding bureaucratic paper pushing hyenas do nothing for as long as possible, probably on the assumption that nothing will affect them in their ivory towers and they can continue to govern over a few rebellious cinders, come the inevitable disaster.

The actual borrowing would have to be worldwide! Cleaning up our 1.5% won't hurt and might dull the tipping point somewhat; that is something science cannot tell us. The size of the borrowing? Roughly the same scale and intensity as that during World War 2 might do it. There's a lot of documentation on that, so I'll leave the interested reader (if there are any left alive here :)) to seek that for themselves. For scale, the USA borrowed 112% of GDP during World War 2, so it's pretty "radical" like I said at the start. When will it be paid back? No one worried during the conflict of WW2 how it was to be paid back...eventually...at least someone might be around to be asking for it ;) World War 2 was financially paid for, eventually, but a lot of debt was "forgiven" as well it may have been to build a better world (and gain political influence). Compare that with the "reparations" after WW1 that led to (yes) WW2. This is not a "moral" challenge as described by Mr Rudd, but an existential challenge.

What would I spend it on? All the things you mention a.s.a.p. Re-forestation, renewable energy, and so on. I would (spending the money like a drunken sailor here) aim to have every house and business in Australia running on solar power and batteries by 2025 and every coal-fired power station closed down and replaced with wind, solar and battery farms (800 billion to 1 trillion$). I do not see anything "unreliable" about renewables with storage on the large or small scale. There is no evidence, for example, from the wind farm and "big battery" installation in S.A. that it has done anything but a good job. The electricity providers are so pleased with the thing that they want the spot market reduce to 5 minutes from 30 minutes so they can make more money than they are now. It will have paid for itself in 5 years or so, which is pretty good in today's world. None of that matters though when you are faced with existential crises (like WW2, and climate change).

Oil-fired ships and aircraft, particularly the latter, cannot be avoided short term (<5 yrs). Aircraft contribute ~2% to worldwide pollution. Ships are a much worse case. They can individually pollute as much as millions of cars. Therefore, they have to be re-fitted to run on cleaner fuels. Here is a role for Hydrogen as a fuel, (in both cases). Not so great on the roads where we don't want little stations with highly explosive fuels (hydrogen) replacing little stations full of highly explosive fuels (petrol). Strictly managed and controlled use of hydrogen by expert fuelers at airports is a lot safer than every man and his dog handling the stuff. If everything other source of pollution were reduced we could survive a little longer running current aircraft, perhaps, but, given a decent engine that no one has thought to develop yet, who knows? Hydrogen is the most energy dense fuel in the universe. Using it wisely in ships and aircraft engines seems logical.

Overall, I take some solace from the Chinese attitude. They are going renewable and electric at a great rate, most likely because they feel the need to go on breathing :eek: This is one (perhaps only) advantage of a totalitarian system. The order is given, and it is done. We have cheaper and better solar panels (in the main) these days because the Chinese manufactured the *sugar* out of the industry and brought the price down. Competition is fierce and the product is getting better every year.
 
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Gary, where exactly do you want the borrowed money spent, and to do what? I can see that having a few billion fast growing trees to bind co2 would work. Unless every human on the planet does this nothing this country does in isolation will make a jot of difference at the cost of pushing us into such a deep recession that life won’t be worth living anyway. So what, we slaughter the ruminant herds all over the world because they produce vast quantities of greenhouse gasses? We all become vegetarians with the health risks that entails. We all ride bikes? Except those who medically can’t . We install renewable energy that is relatively unreliable (and which comes at a pollutant cost albeit small as you point out) in a society which has become totally dependent on electricity. Battery powered vehicles produced at co2 cost?
I suppose we COULD all go back to Stone Age, but frankly, I would rather be dead.
As to the source of funds, if everyone is borrowing to do whatever it is you want done, who is doing the lending and how do you propose they be paid back? How is the lender managing to do their share of this life and soul destroying process?
Committing national suicide when most others are not doing the same does not seem too smart to me. It is not a pleasant sight at the bottom of the lemming cliff!!
I see a Darwinian correction coming. I don’t pretend to have any answers. Everyone seems to think coal fired power is a bad thing. Ok let’s accept that. What is your alternative? How quickly can it be implemented and at what cost? How many years of environmental assessments, committee meets, and all other planning garbage that hinders development in this country will your alternative take?
Not sure how international trade is going to happen, no oil fired ships or aircraft.
As I said, how are we going to pay all the borrowings back?

I see a Darwinian connection too, it's the two gentleman at the top of the boat.
 
Last word from me on energy policy... many people are saying to do nothing, because nothing we do would make difference. Well it does, even if by example to others. At least states and private companies are doing something (solar farms, batteries)

If everyone waited for the rest of the world to do something, nothing would get done, which at govt level is essentially what's happening now. Except that current world leaders gather at taxpayer-funded climate conferences every so often to congratulate each other on the nothing that they are doing, and to make sure nothing continues to get done until the next junket. Even that is too radical for Trump and his ilk who don't even show up.