Australian business owners - will you pay more than A$58K ??

[Zoltrix77]

I know this isn't directly relative to this conversation. But I read so much about how Australian consumers are ripped off on car prices, yet it only seems to be the case with so called premium brands.

Let's take one of the worlds most beige popular cars, the Toyota Camry. From the US website, Toyota lists the base model Camry LE FOR USD$23,070, FROM Toyota Australia's website, a base model Camry Altise is AU$D26,490. It's actually cheaper than the US car!

I see this trend consistently across the Japanese and Korean cars for sale in Australia, they are more or less the same price as the US. It's not unusual to see a slightly lower spec US model that probably wouldn't sell in Australia that's cheaper, but that's it (eg a 4cyl Kluger).

I will be very disappointed if Tesla decides to price gouge the 3 for Australia. I realise exchange rates fluctuate, but it doesn't appear to be an issue with Asian cars. I guess all Tesla model 3s under 75k won't attract LCT as it's a "fuel efficient" vehicle.

 

[houdini]

No chance for July 2018. Maybe, just maybe they will start production of RHD in July 2018, but I'm betting that they wont start production of RHD till late 2018 at best, and then they will fill the HK and UK markets before others. I don't think you'll be in a Model 3 till mid 2019 at best in Australia.

I disagree. Tesla used to shut toe S and X lines and switch over to RHD for a burst of production but recently there's reports of them doing both versions on the same line. I assume the Model 3 is going to do LHD and less options first to allow a rapid start but as production progresses they will continue to work on the line and make changes to optimise production.

Also starting out they will (hopefully) quickly get to 5000 cars a week. Doing the numbers: 1000 cars a week in August 2017. End Sept 2017 we have ~10,000 cars being delivered in the US. Let's be positive and hopeful and we have 50,000 cars by the end of the year. Then the ramp up continues and they hit they're targets for 2018. That's 20,000 a month. If they continue to ramp we may get near 200,000 cars out the factory door by mid 2017. There's low 300,000 pre-orders. New orders come in for sure while the first cars are being delivered and people see them but ther's no way Tesla could ship cars to these new orders or they will alienate us overseas reservation holders for sure. So I would have to assume new orders go to the back of the queue. I also don't think they are literally going to fill every US pre-order before doing any RHD vehicles. That would be pretty crazy and an F you to everyone else in the World. I know most Americans think the US is the centre of the universe but a Company trying to serve a global market market can't think like that. With the X Australia wasn't behind the UK as from memory we were getting cars delivered here while some UK owners were still waiting. Mr. Musk did state that the UK would get there RHD cars in Summer 2018. That's why I'm working off our Winter.

So all that waffle is me trying to say that I am being conservative but feel that we'll be able to order our cars here in JUly 2018 and with the shipping time we will get the first 3 in Sept 2018.

There's no way Australian's will wait until 2019. Take that statement both ways. We won't have to and we won't as in if it looks like pushing to 2019 there's be a hell of a lot of cancellations.

 

[houdini]

Confident it will be cheaper you can pay the more expensive price at the pretend Tesla dealer.

I'm glad you're confident but wishful thinking won't make it so. The price will be set at what the Aussie market will bear. We have no competition down here as we can't buy the Bolt, the Hyundai Ionic, nothing! The 3 will be in clear air from a competition sense. So if it hits the market at $65,000 base drive away what is it competing with?

The US is such a fundamentally different market. The only differentiator with Tesla is the superchargers but we won't get those for free and how many Aussie's need them anyway given they only go from Melbourne to Sydney. Tesla themselves know that 95% of the charging is down at home. If we had any options down here like the E-Pace to compete with the X or the Bolt and Ionic or new Leaf to compete with the 3 then it would be a different story. No competition means they can charge what they like. $65K for the base, $70K AWD all the way up to around $90K for the P, AWD with autopilot etc.

The good news is that you'll be able to buy a second hand S with autopilot and FREE supercharging for around $75K by then.

 

[Burnt Toast]

I'm glad you're confident but wishful thinking won't make it so. The price will be set at what the Aussie market will bear. We have no competition down here as we can't buy the Bolt, the Hyundai Ionic, nothing! The 3 will be in clear air from a competition sense. So if it hits the market at $65,000 base drive away what is it competing with?

The US is such a fundamentally different market. The only differentiator with Tesla is the superchargers but we won't get those for free and how many Aussie's need them anyway given they only go from Melbourne to Sydney. Tesla themselves know that 95% of the charging is down at home. If we had any options down here like the E-Pace to compete with the X or the Bolt and Ionic or new Leaf to compete with the 3 then it would be a different story. No competition means they can charge what they like. $65K for the base, $70K AWD all the way up to around $90K for the P, AWD with autopilot etc.

The good news is that you'll be able to buy a second hand S with autopilot and FREE supercharging for around $75K by then.

Mate no way the P will be $90k. A loaded P will cross over the S, and compete with the BMW M3 and Merc C63, it will be $150-160k easy.

 

[Burnt Toast]

I disagree. Tesla used to shut toe S and X lines and switch over to RHD for a burst of production but recently there's reports of them doing both versions on the same line. I assume the Model 3 is going to do LHD and less options first to allow a rapid start but as production progresses they will continue to work on the line and make changes to optimise production.

Also starting out they will (hopefully) quickly get to 5000 cars a week. Doing the numbers: 1000 cars a week in August 2017. End Sept 2017 we have ~10,000 cars being delivered in the US. Let's be positive and hopeful and we have 50,000 cars by the end of the year. Then the ramp up continues and they hit they're targets for 2018. That's 20,000 a month. If they continue to ramp we may get near 200,000 cars out the factory door by mid 2017. There's low 300,000 pre-orders. New orders come in for sure while the first cars are being delivered and people see them but ther's no way Tesla could ship cars to these new orders or they will alienate us overseas reservation holders for sure. So I would have to assume new orders go to the back of the queue. I also don't think they are literally going to fill every US pre-order before doing any RHD vehicles. That would be pretty crazy and an F you to everyone else in the World. I know most Americans think the US is the centre of the universe but a Company trying to serve a global market market can't think like that. With the X Australia wasn't behind the UK as from memory we were getting cars delivered here while some UK owners were still waiting. Mr. Musk did state that the UK would get there RHD cars in Summer 2018. That's why I'm working off our Winter.

So all that waffle is me trying to say that I am being conservative but feel that we'll be able to order our cars here in JUly 2018 and with the shipping time we will get the first 3 in Sept 2018.

There's no way Australian's will wait until 2019. Take that statement both ways. We won't have to and we won't as in if it looks like pushing to 2019 there's be a hell of a lot of cancellations.

I'm just basing my predictions off past history (Model X). I hope you're right, but I think there is a lot of wishful thinking on your behalf. We'll see. Let's revive this thread in July 2018.