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Australian Model 3 Waiting Room
- Thread starter rgc1990
- Start date
Testesslim3
Member
I reckon the shut down (and I think the people making our cars deserve holidays too) will be the calm before the VIN storm! This next 7-10 days... come on!
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Exclusive: Tesla output forecast shows jump in Q4, growth through 2023 -sources
Tesla plans to push global production of its top-selling Model Y and Model 3 electric vehicles sharply higher in the fourth quarter and build on that growth in 2023 as newer factories in Austin and Berlin ramp production, internal plans reviewed by Reuters show.
www.reuters.com
Q4 is 'going to deliver' on delivery
MagicalseT
Member
Nice to hear, but it won’t be difficult to improve on figures of M3 RWD to Australi.Exclusive: Tesla output forecast shows jump in Q4, growth through 2023 -sources
Tesla plans to push global production of its top-selling Model Y and Model 3 electric vehicles sharply higher in the fourth quarter and build on that growth in 2023 as newer factories in Austin and Berlin ramp production, internal plans reviewed by Reuters show.
Q4 is 'going to deliver' on delivery
Just before the last VIN storm on this thread (I call it a mini VIN storm) I remember a lot of posts of hatred towards Tesla, and irrational drawing of conclusion that members would not receive their cars.
And then literally a day or two later, information coming through that VINs are being assigned.
When this happened, we came to the conclusion most assignments were originally intended demo vehicles reallocated to orders.
General consensus here has been Australian production starts at the beginning of a quarter. The rationale is Tesla then have the entire quarter to ship the vehicles and get them on the books as sold.
Model Y Australian production starting a couple of days early (late Q3 instead of early Q4) is an interesting counter to this. Maybe our market is so small they don’t care when the impact to their bottom line on just an extra couple of thousand cars makes. Maybe there were spots available on shipping vessels so they wanted to get them out sooner?
It’s all a lot of second guessing though. Personally as a late February orderer, I remain confident we’ll receive Model 3 confirmations soon.
I don’t think we should rely on “VINs” any more. My mate in Adelaide with a Y order still has no VIN, but has had his vehicle allocation confirmed by Tesla, and the delivery date is already moved forward a couple of days.
And then literally a day or two later, information coming through that VINs are being assigned.
When this happened, we came to the conclusion most assignments were originally intended demo vehicles reallocated to orders.
General consensus here has been Australian production starts at the beginning of a quarter. The rationale is Tesla then have the entire quarter to ship the vehicles and get them on the books as sold.
Model Y Australian production starting a couple of days early (late Q3 instead of early Q4) is an interesting counter to this. Maybe our market is so small they don’t care when the impact to their bottom line on just an extra couple of thousand cars makes. Maybe there were spots available on shipping vessels so they wanted to get them out sooner?
It’s all a lot of second guessing though. Personally as a late February orderer, I remain confident we’ll receive Model 3 confirmations soon.
I don’t think we should rely on “VINs” any more. My mate in Adelaide with a Y order still has no VIN, but has had his vehicle allocation confirmed by Tesla, and the delivery date is already moved forward a couple of days.
So you're saying we need more hatred and plenty of irrationality, and that makes the cars come? Can do!
I agree though, it's not like there won't be any 3s coming this quarter. Sure, it's taking a bit longer than I thought but it's not like they won't make any. Right? Right? Gotta be in the next week or so. Gotta be... Really... gotta be...
Priit
Active Member
The only caveat on this is that they put Model Y and Model 3 in the same range. More than likely 70% or more of the production will be Model Y and Model 3 is left hanging. Considering that there are now 4 factories making Model Y where the newer ones will be ramping up, but only 2 factories making Model 3 where only the Shanghai factory is exporting to the world. Its funny how they mention the demand for Model Y expected to be much higher than Model 3, but the waiting times for Model 3 are so much higher, that many who cant or dont like the wait are willing to go with their second preference and take a Model Y to avoid the wait. This is their way of pushing the sales number to Model Y as they make more profit on it and make it look like it is more popular than Model 3. I suspect if Model 3 wait times were similar to Model Y, they would be selling a huge amount more of Model 3-s also.Exclusive: Tesla output forecast shows jump in Q4, growth through 2023 -sources
Tesla plans to push global production of its top-selling Model Y and Model 3 electric vehicles sharply higher in the fourth quarter and build on that growth in 2023 as newer factories in Austin and Berlin ramp production, internal plans reviewed by Reuters show.
Q4 is 'going to deliver' on delivery
Miggy
Member
Interesting in New Zealand the sales of the M3 were low for September:
Model 3 Sept = 52 YTD = 2101
Model Y Sept = 1502 YTD = 2092
Model 3 Sept = 52 YTD = 2101
Model Y Sept = 1502 YTD = 2092
It's interesting how different countries are different, so Tesla is working to some number. Possibly this is the number of berths booked on ships and they've underestimated AU demand versus other markets.
Singapore
3 4-8 wks
Y Late 2022
UK
3 Jan-Mar 2023 (though P earlier)
Y Jan-Mar 2023 (though RWD earlier)
My belief is that once the Feb-Apr backlog is cleared May-Aug orders will be delivered in one shipment as the M3 orders will fall off a cliff.
Priit
Active Member
I suspect for them to fill 4 months of orders in one shipment, they may need to book a whole ship instead of just a few hundred car spots on the ship.
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