Australian Supercharger network

[houdini]

I'm going to be a rural Tesla S owner. I currently live in Melbourne but we are building a house in north east Victoria. I'll be looking at an S85 so I can travel from home in the NE to my other home in Melbourne but would certainly appreciate superchargers along the Hume linking Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne, as well as other rural locations like large regional centres and towns near the snowfields and west/east coasts. I don't expect them all at one of course but selling a car that can only be driven in major cities is rather limiting

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They need to start installing them now to prepare for volume sales with the next model that should come in well under the LCT but will have a lower range than the Model S

I think you're being way too optimistic. Given the Model is is going to come in at well over $100K it's going be a low volume seller as there just aren't that many Aussies who can afford a hundred grand on a car - a depreciating asset. I can't see Tesla putting in many over here when it all reality they're going to sell 50 in Melbourne and 50 in Sydney....maybe. Look at how many Superchargers went into the US in the first year and second year and they were pretty quickly selling thousands a month.

And even if the volume seller can use superchargers (I'm already starting to see posts about queues at supercharger stations and there's only model S's out there - Model X's will make that worse) we are seriously years away from getting them. If the Model e launches in 2015 and we see some US ones delivered at the end of 2015 then when can we honestly expect them here? Not until 2017 at the earliest.

But the E is supposed to have a bigger range right? So it might not even be supercharger enabled and people might not need it if it's got 400 km or 500km range. They might make the supercharger capable option really expensive - like $5000 on a $40,000 car, to a. pay for the stations and b. reduce demand on the stations.

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I did some calculations and planning for a potential phase 1 Supercharger rollout for Australia.

Underpinning this planning were some basic assumptions that people would:

• Be using 85kWh Model S
• Want to travel between capital cities
• Want to travel to popular tourist destinations

So, here's map:

View attachment 46602

The routes and Supercharger locations (Supercharger locations are bolded):

• Sydney -> Goulburn -> Gundagai -> Wangaratta -> Melbourne (I would have liked to do this in 2 but the elevation changes are a killer).
• Sydney -> Goulburn -> Canberra
• Sydney -> Goulburn -> Jindabyne
• Sydney -> Lithgow -> Bathurst/Parkes/Dubbo/Mudgee/Orange
• Sydney -> Wallsend -> Port Macquarie -> Grafton -> Gold Coast/Brisbane
• Sydney -> Wallsend -> Cessnock/Tamworth/Armidale
• Melbourne -> Wangaratta -> Mount Hotham
• Melbourne -> Horsham -> Mildura/Adelaide
• Anywhere in Tasmania -> Campbell Town ​(optional)

So that makes 8 mainland Superchargers to cover the primary travel corridors.

Obvious locations that Superchargers would be useful in the future:

• Bendigo, Vic
• Dalby, Qld
• Port Augusta, SA
• Clare, SA
• Entire north coast of Queensland

Let me know if you have any thoughts or suggestions as I'm happy to adjust locations!

I don't think they're ever going to put a supercharger in Tasmania. You can charge at home and cover the whole island. Plus they're going to sell like 2 there, maybe. I think there's one Nissan Leaf in the whole of Tas and the fast charge station is at the Nissan dealer who sold it.

I think you're right on the 3 between Melb and Syd. Minimum expense to setup, major travel corridor and high publicity for Tesla when they do it. Thinking outloud if the stations cost $500K to setup that means $1.5 million cost to Tesla. How many sales will they achieve in the first year......100? If they're making $20K per car then they're still in the Black if they build 3-4 supercharger stations but no more. You could probably work on the ratio of one station per 150 cars sold or something to make business sense. Bring on the Model X to increase sales and make a better case for more stations.

 

[doctorwho]

Personally I'd rather see the Wangaratta station moved a little closer to Melbourne to Violetown, less range anxiety for people who leave from the Mornington Peninsula, otherwise great

 

[alexeiw123]

I did some calculations and planning for a potential phase 1 Supercharger rollout for Australia.

So, here's map:

Port Macquarie

Yes please!!

P.s. nice map

 

[cantdecide]

As someone who lived 25 years in Sydney and now enjoys a Tesla in the bay area... A couple of comments on the map related to what I've experienced over here...

Firstly it overall looks pretty good... Mel Canberra Syd bris would be the initial corridor they would set up.

In general I would expect a couple of places a little closer to Syd than Newcastle and goulburn... Folsom and gilroy feel closer to the bay area than that...
I would also expect to typically see smaller places than Newcastle.
Maybe near truck stops or McDonald's around ourimbah and Berrima might be more likely as the stops near Sydney.
Otherwise... Yes... Spread at about 200 km intervals.

 

[heosat]

Personally I'd rather see the Wangaratta station moved a little closer to Melbourne to Violetown, less range anxiety for people who leave from the Mornington Peninsula, otherwise great

I've calculated that Sorrento, Vic to Wangaratta, Vic, with a 300kg load and regular temperatures will still leave over 30% of the battery in reserve.

In general I would expect a couple of places a little closer to Syd than Newcastle and goulburn... Folsom and gilroy feel closer to the bay area than that...
I would also expect to typically see smaller places than Newcastle.
Maybe near truck stops or McDonald's around ourimbah and Berrima might be more likely as the stops near Sydney.

Ourimbah and Berrima are far too close. In fact, Sydney to Ourimbah is only 87km. Wallsend on the other hand is a good starting point to the Upper Hunter and the rest of the coast.

 

[Lerxt]

It's going to be really interesting to see how it pan out in Australia. I personally don't see the benefit to Tesla of making any investment in Australia at all as the prices and unaffordability will be outrageous. As previously mentioned, they will sell so few Model S's in Australia it won't be worth it. Perhaps with the 3rd generation car and an Australian price of less than$80k they might have a chance.

 

[cantdecide]

Sf to vacaville is 90.2km... San Jose to gilroy is 50km... Not to mention the factory ... It isn't about distance from Sydney so much as the distance for someone going from Canberra to Brisbane etc in a 60 in winter.... Without putting one in the middle of Sydney.

 

[doctorwho]

It's going to be really interesting to see how it pan out in Australia. I personally don't see the benefit to Tesla of making any investment in Australia at all as the prices and unaffordability will be outrageous. As previously mentioned, they will sell so few Model S's in Australia it won't be worth it. Perhaps with the 3rd generation car and an Australian price of less than$80k they might have a chance.

I think that you've identified the reason. There'll be relatively few sales of the S here but strategically its important to already have a charging network in place and being in visible use by the time the high volume Gen III arrives here. Better to start building now, each one is a highly visible advertisement (albeit an expensive one) for Tesla.

 

[heosat]

Sf to vacaville is 90.2km... San Jose to gilroy is 50km... Not to mention the factory ... It isn't about distance from Sydney so much as the distance for someone going from Canberra to Brisbane etc in a 60 in winter.... Without putting one in the middle of Sydney.

I don't think 60s are viable in Australia and people buying them would know that.

Currently Goulburn to Wallsend is 64kWh so I may modify the distance to take into account your suggestion. Thanks!

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It's going to be really interesting to see how it pan out in Australia. I personally don't see the benefit to Tesla of making any investment in Australia at all as the prices and unaffordability will be outrageous. As previously mentioned, they will sell so few Model S's in Australia it won't be worth it. Perhaps with the 3rd generation car and an Australian price of less than$80k they might have a chance.

Tesla don't build things for today, or even tomorrow. They build things with the future in mind, and putting in Superchargers sooner rather than later makes the product far more desirable in the future.

 

[doctorwho]

I think that 60s are viable but not really for intercity travel. It would be useful if they were useable for trips (using Melbourne as an example) to the snow and return, to the west coast return. That would be a common holiday destination for a car that would be mostly used as an urban commuter. I think that 60 drivers would tolerate 1 recharge en route and a recharge overnight but 85s are really the targets for Melbourne - Sydney - Brisbane travel.

 

[salamagd]

I don't think 60s are viable in Australia and people buying them would know that.

I think they're completely viable, as long as you're aware of your requirements. I'm planning on getting one - I don't think I've driven further than 200km away from Melbourne for years. Any further than that and it's easier to fly.

 

[spentan]

The thing is, that the cost of a supercharger in the USA is 500k. I think it would be much more expensive in Aus (labor, power and even solar doesn't have a good FIT).

Also from my experience, you rarely drive 400km+ in a day. Canberra-Sydney is doable in a P85, and I don't know if there will be enough Model Ses to support superchargers worth around 500k let alone more.

Also there has been no promise of "supercharger" access for Model E, at their projected build/sales, I doubt very highly that it will happen. It will be model S/X only imho

 

[nwdiver]

Also there has been no promise of "supercharger" access for Model E, at their projected build/sales, I doubt very highly that it will happen. It will be model S/X only imho

Elon has promised the Model E WILL have SC access...
http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-confirms-free-supercharging-for-tesla-gen-3-model-e/

 

[alexeiw123]

Elon has promised the Model E WILL have SC access...
http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-confirms-free-supercharging-for-tesla-gen-3-model-e/

They'd be mad not to include it surely, its the one thing that makes mass adoption of EV's viable for long distance travelling.

How they can expand the stations to supply the demand of a mass market vehicle will be interesting though.

 

[houdini]

Elon has promised the Model E WILL have SC access...
http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-confirms-free-supercharging-for-tesla-gen-3-model-e/

Having access and having access included are two different things. The base Model S did not have SC access included but rather it's a paid option. I would expect it to be the same: base model and then pay a few thousand to make it SC enabled.

Don't forget Australia is a tiny market compared to the rest of the world so why would we get even 1% of what they do?

 

[alexeiw123]

Having access and having access included are two different things.

Agreed - a cheap car isn't likely to have it rolled in to the drive away price. It'll be an extra.

My comment about the model E was thinking more at the worldwide approach. I do think we'll get superchargers here though. I think Tesla needs to prove itself a viable option in each market, which starts with outlay.

I guess time will tell. I wonder if Elon will start providing answers soon to how it's going to work down here.

 

[gizmonty]

That map looks pretty good. From a (my) Melbourne perspective I would really want one along the Great Ocean Road (which I've said before). Wangaratta would be a good spot as well as I like to head to Bright/Falls Creek.
I was thinking yesterday that I might like to go on a driving holiday with family to Tasmania once (if) I get my Model S. I wonder how much of a challenge that would turn out to be. I would probably have to contact tourism board people before going to see what could be arranged. Would be interesting (and noteworthy!).

Still, until you tell me the price Tesla, this is all speculation. (did I shout that loudly enough?)

 

[WarpedOne]

Don't forget Australia is a tiny market compared to the rest of the world so why would we get even 1% of what they do?

Because:
a) tesla cars without SC are missing the biggest selling/marketing point
b) AUS is huge therefore a) is not only big but huge
c) a SC station costs ~150k, tesla needs to sell 70 cars with SC membership to build one = 30 * 70 = 2100 cars for a useable SC network

It WILL happen.

 

[spentan]

Because:
a) tesla cars without SC are missing the biggest selling/marketing point
b) AUS is huge therefore a) is not only big but huge
c) a SC station costs ~150k, tesla needs to sell 70 cars with SC membership to build one = 30 * 70 = 2100 cars for a useable SC network

It WILL happen.

WAT?

A) the biggest marketing selling point is not superchargers, its having an all electric car with 450+ km range.
B)this is bad,
C)where are you getting your info? SCS in the USA cost 500k they will be much more in aus (labour/power/solar costs etc)


I'm gonna go with "no, it won't happen".

This is why I moved from Australia to Southern California

 

[Tasdevil]

A) the biggest marketing selling point is not superchargers, its having an all electric car with 450+ km range.

I think a lot of people will buy the car because of both reasons.
And not buy the car if either incentive was missing.
And it's fast