Auto Execs: Plug-In Hybrids Will Soar, Pure EVs Decline

[Doug_G]

Design News - Auto Execs: Plug-In Hybrids Will Soar, Pure EVs Decline

Automotive executives foresee a big future for plug-in hybrids over the next five years but are less bullish on the future of pure EVs, a new study says

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the study, however, may be the fact that the internal combustion engine remains a strong option in the minds of auto executives. Eighty-five percent of the respondents in the KPMG survey considered downsizing of the IC engine as their best chance for fuel efficiency and emissions gains over the next decade. That's particularly so in such countries as China and Brazil, where much development money still flows toward conventional powertrain technology, the study said. It's also the case in the US, where Ford Motor Co. recently announced availability of a one-liter engine targeted at the worldwide market.

Such trends could be a sign that newer powertrain technologies are taking longer than expected to emerge, according to KPMG: "The results show an increasing realization that the electric vehicle is not quite the savior that many had hoped for."

Cole concurred that the internal combustion engine is still considered the best bet for reaching the CAFE mandate of 54.5 mpg by 2025. "We won't be writing the epitaph for the internal combustion engine for a really long time. It could be around for 50 more years."

 

[Sparky]

Well this isn't too surprising. Companies like Tesla are successful only because they overturn the corporate "thought" process.
Actually,, I found the stats in the article a bit surprising:

"Asked to name the "electric vehicle technology that will attract the most consumer demand" in a KMPG International survey, 36 percent of auto execs chose plug-in hybrids, while only 11 percent cited battery-electric vehicles (BEVs)".

So, it's only about 3 to 1 hybrid to BEV ratio. And the other 50% believes the CAFE future is what? Diesel? Hydrogen?

 

[smorgasbord]

"We won't be writing the epitaph for the internal combustion engine for a really long time. It could be around for 50 more years."

I think we're both right - EVs will take off in the next decade, but ICEs will still be around for a while. The automobile "replaced" horse and buggy by 1915 (Model T came out in 1908), yet horse and buggies were around in both Europe and US well into WW II.

 

[ggies07]

I think we're both right - EVs will take off in the next decade, but ICEs will still be around for a while. The automobile "replaced" horse and buggy by 1915 (Model T came out in 1908), yet horse and buggies were around in both Europe and US well into WW II.

So if true, I'll see the transition right as I die. hahahaha.

 

[Citizen-T]

This is encouraging to me as a Tesla investor. My biggest concern has been that the success of the Model S would start a gold rush to BEVs. Looks like auto execs still don't see the writing on the wall. All the better for Tesla IMO.

 

[jerry33]

This is encouraging to me as a Tesla investor. My biggest concern has been that the success of the Model S would start a gold rush to BEVs. Looks like auto execs still don't see the writing on the wall. All the better for Tesla IMO.

With the exception of Tesla, the automobile manufacturers' customers are the dealers. EVs are disliked by the dealers because of the limited service and parts opportunities. As long as the automobile manufacturers are locked into the dealer system, they will never seriously adopt real EVs that compete with Tesla.

 

[GSP]

I think all of these execs believe that a 265-mile EV with 300 mph charging is not possible. How they can think this with the Model S on the market is beyond me.

I do think PHEVs will be more popular than BEVs in the near future. Primarily since there are no other BEVs that are at Tesla's level.

GSP

 

[richkae]

News flash: Executives polled say everything they do is right.

 

[hvb]

One of the hurdles to pure-EV adoption is the lack of curbside charging. Most cars in the city are parked on the street, and unless an infrastructure is developed to allow these cars to charge without a garage, those people will continue to use gasoline.

 

[VolkerP]

Beg to differ. As soon as driving a gasoline car is no longer a viable personal transportation solution, existing technology will be installed within weeks for curbside parking. It's an infrastructure rollout like electrifying homes, or sewer systems, or A/C. When you see the new, you just can't bear any longer to live with the old.