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Discussion in 'Cars and Transportation' started by TEG, Mar 19, 2010.
Autos to Be Fastest Growing U.S. Industry in Next 5 Years -- Seeking Alpha
Death of the Electric Car: Li-ion Batteries Too Valuable for Plug-In Vehicles - Seeking Alpha
This guy is comparing amounts of endlessly reusable metals produced with amounts of one use combustible fuels. Once the lithium has been made into batteries, it can be recycled for batteries forever, whereas once you burn the oil, its gone. It isn't a valid comparison on amounts.
The guy is a moron.
Lithium is so cheap we use it for grease and a bunch of other consumables.
0.027 million tons of lithium would yield about 14 million Nissan Leaf batteries per year.
( I get that estimate from here: Is lithium-ion the ideal battery? where they state that an 18650 has about 0.6grams of lithium in it, thus a Tesla pack has 4kG of lithium in it and thus you can get 13.6kWh of battery per kg of lithium )
Those 14 million Nissan Leaf batteries can be reused or recycled forever.
Every incremental improvement in energy density in batteries means less lithium for the same energy, in 5 years the same amount of lithium would probably make 30 million Nissan Leaf batteries.
The USGS estimates 25 million tons of conventional known lithium resources. Conventional means scrape it off of a dry lake bed and process it.
Since we only touch 0.1% of that per year nobody is particularly worred about finding more reserves.
Long before we have made 140 million EVs ( and used up 1% of the known conventional lithium reserves ) we will probably come up with a better ( cheaper ) way to store energy anyway.
NOPE, the guy has long positions in lead acid battery companies per his bio and is trying to make us the MORONS for believing his "analysis".
Meanwhile I find his provokating-tricky-maneuvers-slightly-disguised-as-miscalculations quite entertaining to read. For a lawyer holding a long position, that is.